10 year and 30 year US bond auctions are key for stock traders and investors.

10-year and 30-year US bond auctions are key for stock traders and investors

00:00

Introduction to stock market and volume price analysis

00:00

The session begins with a welcome and an introduction to the focus on stock markets and indices. The speaker explains that the analysis techniques used for trading stocks can also apply to investing, highlighting the key difference between trading and investing as the time horizon. Traders view stocks as vehicles for short-term profit, whereas investors see them as long-term assets.

01:02

The discussion continues by emphasizing the use of volume price analysis as the primary method to study the markets. A disclaimer is shown, warning about the risks of trading and advising viewers not to invest money they cannot afford to lose. The speaker reinforces the importance of understanding these risks before proceeding.

01:30

Volume price analysis basics and methodology

01:30

Volume price analysis is a method of interpreting charts by combining price action with volume to determine whether price movements are genuine or anomalies. It also incorporates support and resistance levels. The approach uses candles, candle patterns, and multiple time frames, including volume over time, to provide deeper insight into market behavior. There are detailed books available that explain this methodology and offer numerous examples of signals and setups for stocks, indices, and commodities.

02:42

The methodology involves recognizing specific candle patterns and signals, which builds confidence and helps traders become more relaxed and successful. It is based on five key elements: volume, price, candles and candle patterns, support and resistance, and multiple time frames. Emphasis is placed on thoroughly understanding and accurately marking support and resistance on charts, both price-based and volume-based. Additionally, traders can incorporate various indicators such as moving averages, Elliott Wave, Bollinger Bands, and others to complement the analysis. The approach has been refined over more than 20 years and adapts to individual preferences.

04:13

Crude oil chart and integration of Gann analysis

04:13

The discussion focuses on crude oil trading, specifically the WTI contract, which is currently at a critical resistance level and struggling to advance further. The speaker references analysis from their site anacooling.com and highlights how their price action, volume, and support/resistance indicators align well with another analyst’s approach using the Gann Square of Nine method. The segment emphasizes understanding basic technical concepts and complementing them with additional tools to form a complete technical picture, while also noting that technical analysis is just one part of trading or investing decisions.

05:55

Bond market impact on stock market dynamics

05:55

The discussion focuses on how market charts do not move in isolation, with bond markets currently driving divergence between major indices, especially the Dow and Nasdaq. The Nasdaq, representing growth and tech stocks, typically performs well when the economy is advancing and interest rates are low. However, rising bond yields, particularly on the 10-year Treasury, have unsettled markets, causing nervousness and volatility that has not been seen since the financial crisis.

07:10

Attention shifts to the daily chart of the Nasdaq, with mention of using platforms like MT4 and TradingView to access markets that were previously limited to futures brokers. The speaker highlights the importance of daily charts for traders who engage in day trading or short-term holds, emphasizing the need to select a portfolio of stocks based on potential setups for short-term trading opportunities.

08:17

Nasdaq daily chart volatility and volume analysis

08:17

The speaker explains how volume price analysis (VPA) on the daily chart helps anticipate the trading environment, using the US 100 Nasdaq index as an example. The market is described as schizophrenic, with volatile swings including a down day followed by strong buying and then another drop. Recent market moves were influenced by a well-received 3-year bond auction, which fueled a rally. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI data also impacted the market, with the core CPI coming in slightly lower than expected, sparking excitement and follow-through buying.

10:29

The discussion shifts to inflation concerns and their impact on markets. Rising bond yields and commodity prices, combined with a large government stimulus package, contribute to fears of rampant inflation, which can negatively affect stocks. Central banks aim for a balanced inflation rate around 2%, but controlling inflation remains challenging and unpredictable. Traders are advised to consider fundamental news and related markets, especially the bond market, which has become crucial due to upcoming bond auctions. The 10-year and 30-year bond auctions are highlighted as key events influencing the market.

13:16

The daily chart provides insight into the trading environment, showing a shift from low-volatility, creeping price action to larger, more volatile ranging days. The Nasdaq has experienced a climb to all-time highs with narrowing spreads and declining volume, signaling potential market exhaustion. According to VPA principles, when effort (volume) doesn’t match the result (price movement), it suggests an anomaly. A bearish reversal pattern emerged with a bearish engulfing candle and increasing volume on the decline, indicating a sell-off in the tech sector driven by inflation fears, bond yields, and sector rotation away from tech stocks.

16:36

Further analysis of the Nasdaq’s price and volume shows attempts to rebound with buying volume but ultimately facing resistance at key price levels. Volume Point of Control (VPOC) acts as a fulcrum for support and resistance, with price oscillating around this level. Despite some volume backing to the upside, the market resumed its downward trend, returning to the VPOC area. This price action reflects ongoing market uncertainty and narrative-driven volatility with alternating up and down days.

18:56

The recent market volatility is attributed to the CPI data, particularly the slightly lower than expected core CPI, which stimulated buying. The speaker introduces their five-chart setup using Renko charts, which are point-based rather than time-based. This method, applied to the Nasdaq and currency pairs, helps align price action with volume and other market factors for clearer analysis.

19:36

Using Renko charts with time charts for entries and exits

19:36

The segment discusses analyzing market movements using time charts and Renko charts together. The speaker highlights a recent volatile period marked by a significant news event causing a large candle and immediate retracement on the hourly chart. They explain how Renko charts help filter out market noise and provide clearer entry points by showing agreement between trend indicators and clearing congestion levels.

20:48

This part elaborates on using Renko charts for holding positions during volatility and complementing them with time charts for exit timing. The speaker points out that Renko bricks form based on price movement rather than time, making them useful to identify strong moves. They mention a classic shooting star candle on the time chart as a signal of weakness, which can be used to decide exit points even when the Renko chart hasn’t fully reversed.

22:00

The focus shifts to price-based support and resistance levels derived from the Camarilla method, emphasizing the importance of the third and fourth levels as key points where price tends to pause or reverse. The speaker notes that these levels on the hourly chart remain valid for the entire week, unlike lower timeframes where they refresh daily. The segment concludes with a quick mention of the speaker’s stock market observations and ongoing analysis.

23:13

Stock filtering, volume leaders, and sector analysis

23:13

The speaker discusses the challenge of finding suitable stocks for day trading due to the vast number of options and varying criteria. They mention evaluating different filtering software, ultimately considering BarChart, which provides useful data presentation. The focus is on sectors and volume leaders, highlighting stocks with high trading activity as potential trade candidates or watch list additions. The importance of patience is emphasized, as signals may take time to develop.

24:57

The speaker explains the process of analyzing stocks by considering their sector performance and position within the economic cycle, particularly in the context of the current inflation narrative. A top-down approach is recommended, starting from broad economic conditions and narrowing down to individual stocks to create a targeted watch list for day trading.

26:38

Viacom is used as a case study to illustrate a classic trading pattern with a long period of congestion forming a saucer shape on the chart. The stock shows a stable volume point of control and strong support levels verified by NinjaTrader’s price-based indicators, suggesting a reliable platform for placing stop losses and anticipating potential price movement.

27:40

The analysis continues with Viacom exhibiting sideways movement accompanied by moderate volume and volatility. The speaker notes that price action typically retraces within the range of volatility candles and that such volatility can serve to shake out weak holders. Recognizing this pattern is important as it indicates potential accumulation before a price move.

28:42

The volatility pattern in Viacom is further discussed, highlighting a sequence of price swings that could unsettle traders. Despite significant down candles, diminishing volume suggests weakening selling pressure, which often precedes an upward move. This volume behavior signals that the stock may resume its ascent after brief congestion.

30:06

Following a pullback, Viacom shows renewed upward momentum supported by reasonable volume, fitting the volatility and support pattern described earlier. The speaker notes that these price action patterns are observable across multiple time frames, making them useful for day traders. The importance of learning these patterns through worked examples is emphasized.

31:08

The speaker shifts focus to other stocks identified via BarChart’s volume analysis, including Neo and Genie. Neo experienced strong buying pressure and a gap up, settling at a volume point of control near key support levels. Genie, while experiencing some volatility and a gap down, is noted as a less volatile, affordable stock suitable for day trading strategies.

32:22

The advice concludes with a reminder to select stocks with steady price action and clear trends rather than those stuck in prolonged sideways movement. Stocks like Viacom are kept on watch lists until they show volume-driven breakouts. The speaker also references tools like BarChart and StockBeep to track money flow into defensive versus growth stocks and safe haven versus risk currencies, emphasizing the importance of following where the money is flowing.

33:26

Interconnected markets: currencies, commodities, and equities

33:26

The speaker discusses the importance of analyzing multiple related markets beyond forex, including commodities, stocks, and equities, to gauge overall market sentiment. They emphasize the correlation between currency movements, especially risk currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi, and the US dollar, noting that the dollar often weakens when markets rise. The relationship between the dollar and politics is highlighted, particularly how the dollar tends to rise under Democratic control, driven by bond yield fears and its status as a safe haven. Recent market movements showed a sharp reversal in the dollar and the Nasdaq, with the Nasdaq shooting up and then falling again, indicating uncertain market direction influenced by bond market developments.

35:48

Market sentiment across major indices—the YM (Dow), NQ (Nasdaq), and ES (S&P 500)—is generally positive with gains since the open. However, the Nasdaq shows some congestion and less bullish action compared to the other two indices. The speaker notes recent divergence where the Nasdaq has occasionally underperformed while the YM and ES have risen, reflecting that although these risk markets are related, their movements are not always perfectly aligned. Current trading is centered around volume point of control (VPOC) levels, with expected congestion or potential breakout scenarios to watch.

38:06

A detailed multi-timeframe analysis of the YM index using 15-second to 15-minute charts reveals a strong bullish trend with all timeframes showing positive momentum. The trend monitor confirms this with consistent blue signals, indicating no immediate trend reversal, though faster timeframes may show early signs if a change occurs. This approach demonstrates the effectiveness of volume price analysis (VPA) indicators across different timeframes for scalping and trading decisions.

39:11

The speaker shifts focus to forex, highlighting significant selling pressure on the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc, with commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Australian dollar rising strongly. The dollar shows signs of weakness through a two-bar reversal pattern, suggesting potential further declines intraday, though longer-term trends remain to be confirmed. Overall, risk currencies maintain bullish momentum, and traders should watch for potential breakouts or reversals.

40:52

Using TradeStation 9.5 integrated with Interactive Brokers, the speaker demonstrates advanced order flow analysis based on live transacted orders, focusing on large trade sizes (30 contracts and above) and their market impact. Multiple indicators including trend monitors and the Quantum Volatility Indicator provide real-time insights into volatility patterns across various timeframes. The volatility indicator helps anticipate congestion or reversals, with trend changes cascading from faster to slower timeframes, providing traders with a powerful visual tool for multi-chart and multi-timeframe analysis.

43:10

The speaker extols the power of TradeStation’s RadarScreen platform, which can run hundreds to thousands of charts simultaneously across multiple timeframes and instruments, facilitating rapid trade identification and market analysis. Returning to NinjaTrader charts, the focus is on bullish price action with rising volume and trend monitor signals confirming upward momentum. The VIX volatility index is mentioned as an upcoming point of interest, and the discussion transitions to stock trading with a focus on General Electric (GE).

44:38

Analyzing GE stock across multiple intraday timeframes reveals a predominantly bearish trend on faster charts, with increased volatility and volume indicating potential congestion or reversal zones. The principles of volume price analysis apply consistently across stocks, futures, and indices. Attention is drawn to volatility triggers at various times, signaling shifts in momentum. Understanding these multi-timeframe dynamics helps traders anticipate market direction and manage trades effectively.

46:23

The speaker explains the natural volume pattern during market rallies, with volume surging initially then tapering off as the market establishes a rhythm. They recommend trading the Globex electronic futures market rather than the cash market during the first 15-30 minutes due to extreme volatility in cash markets. Globex offers cleaner, more consistent price action that is easier to trade. Despite differing opinions, the speaker strongly advocates for Globex based on extensive personal experience and contract sizes, emphasizing that early market volatility is an unavoidable daily factor.

49:30

A weekly chart analysis of oil highlights its recovery from historically low prices to a strong resistance area marked by the volume point of control and accumulation distribution levels. The market is struggling to break through this zone, leading to congestion. The speaker stresses the importance of identifying price and volume-based resistance or support levels to gauge the effort required for price moves. Beyond this resistance, oil faces low volume areas and minimal price resistance, suggesting that if broken, the market could advance more easily.

51:50

Gold is currently bearish despite a recent positive day, with longer-term charts suggesting potential declines to around $1600 an ounce. The speaker notes that inflation remains gold’s main long-term support driver, as rising prices in soft commodities and raw materials are expected to eventually trigger inflation. While gold is inherently favored by investors, current market conditions remain weak, and sustained inflation would be necessary to restore its bullish case.

53:17

Recent index movements show weakness with price testing and retreating from volume point of control levels. The US dollar is strengthening after reaching oversold conditions on a 15-minute chart, prompting buying in the dollar and yen pairs, and a decline in commodity currencies. The Swiss franc is lagging but may follow if the reversal in sentiment gains traction. The speaker then introduces Quantum Trading’s suite of indicators available on multiple platforms including MT4/5, NinjaTrader, TradingView, and TradeStation, highlighting their flexibility and integration with different brokers and feeds.

55:15

Quantum Trading offers seamless transfer of indicators across platforms at no extra charge, allowing users to switch between MT4/5, TradingView, NinjaTrader, and TradeStation without losing their investment. Customers upgrading packages receive credit for previously purchased indicators, ensuring ongoing value and protection of their initial purchase. Currently, the full TradeStation package is priced competitively, with future price increases expected as new indicators are developed, making it an opportune time to invest.

56:39

The complete forex trading program offered is comprehensive, covering psychology, fundamental and relational market analysis, bond yields, commodities, and currency interrelations. It provides in-depth technical training on volume price analysis (VPA), including core principles and applications for identifying trend pauses, reversals, and pullbacks. Understanding these concepts helps traders avoid premature exits and improve trade management. The program includes hundreds of hours of video content, webinars, and resources for thorough education.

58:14

An exclusive funded forex program is available only to students of the trading course, offering a no-risk opportunity to trade with provided capital starting at $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000 evaluation accounts. Successful traders who meet achievable targets have their accounts scaled up fourfold and can progress to trading multi-million dollar accounts. The program requires only a one-time fee and aims to leverage students’ knowledge by providing real trading capital without personal financial risk. The speaker concludes by thanking viewers and promising more content.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis