Day trade emini futures and commodities with confidence using volume price analysis

Trade Emini futures and commodities with confidence using volume price analysis

00:00

Introduction and webinar start delay apology

00:00

The speaker welcomes everyone and apologizes for the slight delay in starting the session due to technical issues and distractions. They thank the audience for taking the time to join the webinar with David to discuss developments in the futures market.

00:31

Trading risks and disclaimer reminder

00:31

The speaker emphasizes the inherent risks of trading, highlighting that whether one is a small retail trader or a large institutional trader, the risk level remains the same. They caution viewers to never trade with money they cannot afford to lose, underlining the seriousness of managing financial risk responsibly.

00:59

Volume price analysis methodology overview

00:59

The speaker explains the focus on analyzing markets through volume price analysis (VPA), which studies the interaction between volume and price to assess the validity of market moves and anticipate future trends. The foundational concepts are detailed in a book available on Amazon, accompanied by a companion book containing 200 worked examples to help learners grasp the methodology. The speaker emphasizes that price action is cyclical and that VPA setups and signals, including candle patterns and volume, tend to repeat over time.

02:14

Repeating patterns and worked examples

02:14

The speaker explains that certain signals tend to repeat, and recognizing these patterns on charts as a child develops helps in live market trading. While nothing is guaranteed in trading, these recurring signals increase the probability of predicting outcomes, which is why 200 worked examples are provided for practice.

02:49

VPA charts, volume, price, support and resistance

02:49

The VPA (Volume Price Analysis) methodology discussed applies to stocks, futures, and commodities. The chart includes a ticker on the top left and a volume profile histogram at the bottom, enabling interpretation through volume, price, and candle patterns. Key elements include volume, price, candle patterns, and crucially, support and resistance levels where price tends to pause or reverse. Standard indicators can be added to complement the analysis, with some proprietary indicators developed for this methodology. The approach is universal, suitable for different markets including forex.

03:54

Understanding broader market context

03:54

The speaker begins by emphasizing the importance of analyzing beyond just the chart and the specific market being traded. They highlight the need to understand the broader market context and the overall market mood. This foundational approach is essential for students aiming to become authorities in forex trading.

04:30

Fundamentals and related markets impact

04:30

The speaker emphasizes the importance of being a well-rounded forex trader by understanding both technical analysis and fundamental factors affecting individual currencies. They highlight how market analysis has evolved from isolated silos—stocks, commodities, bonds—to an interconnected view where movements in one market influence others. Understanding the relationships and cycles between various asset classes is crucial, as ignoring these connections limits the effectiveness of analyzing a single chart in isolation.

06:07

Importance of bond market and yields

06:07

The discussion focuses on understanding the broader bond market, emphasizing the importance of accessing relevant data through paid services or broker platforms. With thousands of markets and instruments available, investing.com is recommended as a comprehensive resource. The key point is the significant shift occurring in the bond market, particularly in bond yields. Rising yields signal various economic conditions such as inflation or market fear, making it crucial to monitor these changes as they serve as proxies for broader market trends.

07:44

Bond market liquidity and economic cycles

07:44

Liquidity was abundant, but investors struggled to acquire sufficient treasuries. This lack of attention was understandable as related markets influence price action differently depending on the stage of the economic and business cycle. Prior to the impact of COVID-19, employment was not a major focus.

08:24

Employment data significance post-COVID

08:24

The speaker discusses the employment situation, noting that previously employment data seemed stable with jobs being created monthly as reported by the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures. However, a significant shift occurred around a year ago when employment surged to levels not seen since the Great Depression. Currently, employment data is critically important and closely monitored by the market, influencing market reactions significantly.

08:57

Federal Reserve and bond market dynamics

08:57

The speaker emphasizes two key financial indicators to watch: the Federal Reserve’s actions and bond yields, particularly in the U.S. Treasury market. They explain how U.S. Treasuries are sold at auctions to raise money, and the success of these auctions is measured by the bid-to-cover ratio. A well-covered auction indicates market confidence and stable yields, whereas a poorly received auction can unsettle the market. An unusual recent event mentioned is a seven-year Treasury auction, which is less common compared to the typical three-year auctions.

10:02

Bond auctions and market reactions

10:02

The speaker discusses various bond durations available in the market, such as two, ten, and thirty years, explaining flexibility in bond terms. They mention a recent bond issuance that was poorly received, causing market concerns and a significant pullback. However, a subsequent 20-year bond issuance performed better, easing market worries. The discussion then shifts to the Federal Reserve’s response to rising yields, with attention on how the Fed might adjust interest rates in this context.

11:08

Fed interest rate stance and inflation risk

11:08

The speaker discusses the impact of raising interest rates, explaining that higher rates increase borrowing costs for companies and individuals, which in turn affects employment and overall expenses. The speaker mentions a willingness to tolerate higher inflation, possibly above the nominal 2%, to prioritize employment. However, this approach carries risks, as inflation can be unpredictable and difficult to control, likened to holding the tail of a tiger. Historical references to high mortgage rates illustrate these challenges. Additionally, the market’s reaction, including concepts like yield curve control, plays a critical role in how these policies unfold, affecting even short-term traders.

12:42

Yield curve control and trading bias impact

12:42

The speaker discusses the market bias for the current session, questioning whether it will trend up or down. They note that the Nasdaq is currently stagnant. The speaker mentions trading futures on MT4 via contracts for difference, referencing a trader named Mr. Huang who experienced losses due to poor risk management and a margin call.

13:19

Leverage risks in retail and institutional trading

13:19

The speaker discusses a trader who was reportedly using extremely high leverage, borrowing large sums to trade stocks, which contrasts with current strict regulatory limits on retail forex leverage, now reduced to as low as 1:10 from previous levels of 1:500 or more. Despite the high risks, this trader was allowed to operate at about 50:1 leverage through a family office, highlighting a disparity in risk management between retail and institutional traders. The speaker emphasizes that risk management should be consistent regardless of account size, and larger accounts should trade more conservatively. The segment concludes with a brief introduction to analyzing market indices, noting some divergence among them.

15:04

Current divergence in major indices

15:04

The speaker explains that until recently, the S&P 500, along with the Nasdaq and Dow, moved closely together and served as the main market benchmarks. However, this correlation has broken down due to shifts in the bond market and long-term sentiment changes. There is a rotation occurring from growth and riskier stocks, mainly represented by the Nasdaq, into more defensive, value stocks typically found in the Dow. The S&P 500 is described as a broader index, while the Russell 2000 tracks small-cap stocks and can indicate market sentiment. The Nasdaq often acts as a bellwether during positive, risk-on market conditions. The speaker references their analysis involving five key charts to understand these dynamics better.

16:42

NQ daily chart and volume point of control

16:42

The speaker discusses the daily chart for the NQ CFD version, highlighting its choppy and indecisive price action. The market shows flip-flopping behavior with alternating up and down days, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.

17:13

The market is currently congested at the volume point of control, which serves as the fulcrum based on volume and price over time. This congestion area resembles a distribution curve, suggesting the market is at a critical decision point about its next move.

17:51

Traders face uncertainty when the daily chart shows congestion because it could break either upward or downward. Regardless of the asset type—stocks, indices, commodities, or forex—the best expectation is two-way price action in shorter time frames due to the lack of a clear trend.

18:24

When the daily chart previously showed a clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, short-term traders would look to join the dominant trend on pullbacks. Even if there are tradable downside setups, the overall bias remains upward on the slower time frame, favoring long positions.

19:06

The current pattern on the daily chart reflects broader market factors such as sentiment, bond yields, and sector rotation. This multi-dimensional approach influences the index’s direction, and understanding these external drivers is essential for interpreting the market’s moves.

19:44

Multi-dimensional trading approach explained

19:44

The discussion explains a three-dimensional approach as a technical fundamental, which can also be viewed as a multi-dimensional approach when incorporating other experiences. The market is currently in a positive mood and appears to be moving away from the volume point of control. Attention is given to faster time frames to identify potential entry points. Additionally, the importance of using a non-time-based chart for analysis is highlighted.

20:16

Renko charts and trend monitoring benefits

20:16

The segment explains the advantages of using Renko charts alongside tick charts, highlighting how Renko provides a clear geometric visualization of price action. Combined with custom indicators like trend dots, the trend monitor, and levels, Renko charts help identify potential entry signals and assist in staying in profitable moves despite pullbacks or congestion. The trend monitor and dots maintain mostly positive signals during minor congestion, suggesting a bullish momentum aligned with the daily chart.

21:19

This part discusses the Camarilla levels on different timeframes, noting that daily levels reset every day while hourly and daily levels represent key levels for the entire week. These weekly levels are crucial for trading the NQ on MT4, with particular emphasis on the third and fourth Camarilla levels as important reference points for price action during the week.

21:59

Camarilla levels and key support/resistance

21:59

The speaker discusses a significant upward price movement, noting a lift-off from the third level with potential continuation towards the second and possibly the third level. They explain that certain levels may lead to a reversal, often occurring around the third and fourth levels. Using faster time frames such as the five-minute chart, they observe a volume surge coinciding with the session’s start and volatility triggers. Price action has reached resistance levels (R3 and R4) on the 15-minute chart, which typically cause pauses or retracements within the candle’s range, indicating potential areas where the price may pull back or continue if it breaks through these levels.

23:35

Intraday price action and volatility triggers

23:35

The speaker explains the importance of using multiple indicators, such as the R5 and R6 levels across different time frames, to identify confluence in trading decisions. They highlight the use of Renko charts to reduce noise seen in time-based charts and candles, noting that blue signals on the Renko chart help maintain a trade position. For exit strategies, they recommend monitoring time charts and candle patterns to determine when a move is ending. The segment ends with the speaker passing control to a colleague named David while observing a potentially strong trading day for the Nasdaq.

24:40

Currency array sentiment visualization

24:40

The speaker explains how currency arrays provide a clear visual representation of current market sentiment, specifically highlighting the widespread selling of the yen. By examining these arrays on different time frames (5, 10, and 15 minutes), one can quickly gauge sentiment strength. Strong sentiment causes certain indicators to rise, while weakening sentiment leads to those indicators dropping, offering a fast and simple snapshot of market mood before moving on to analyze specific charts.

25:35

Current index price action and sentiment

25:35

The discussion focuses on the current market conditions of major indices. The YM has surged to a high volatility candle with significant volume, while the NQ shows some weakness despite being the more active mover. The general market sentiment remains bullish, aiming for higher levels. The NQ is in a tight congestion zone around the daily volume point of control. Meanwhile, the YM and ES indices are attempting breakouts into new highs, pushing towards previously untested price levels.

27:02

The YM faces congestion near the volume point of control with a volatility trigger and expected heavy volume, while the NQ tries to move higher, potentially pulling the others up. The ES oscillates around its volume point of control, maintaining an overall bullish intraday perspective. Additionally, the VIX is falling from 20 to about 19, indicating improving market sentiment. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 has declined since midday and is attempting to find a bottom, highlighting a divergence between UK and US market movements.

27:24

Oil market trends and resistance levels

27:24

The discussion focuses on various markets beyond US risk markets, starting with oil. Recent events like the Suez Canal incident caused temporary fluctuations, but the oil market remains bearish overall. The price hit a resistance level at $67 per barrel but failed to break through, returning to a congestion area around the volume point of control. Attention then shifts to gold, which is also experiencing a bearish trend, consistent with prior analysis shared on the site.

28:22

Gold market bearish momentum analysis

28:22

The segment discusses the pattern of rallies and reversals in the gold market, highlighting the decreasing volume during rallies which signals weakness. Despite occasional hints at reversals, consistent selling pressure and volume spikes result in price declines. The speaker suggests that gold’s bottoming out will be influenced largely by inflation, noting that current short-term behavior lacks strong buying interest without a fundamental catalyst.

29:17

This part focuses on intraday trading strategies using volatility indicators and volume analysis. It describes a scenario of a volatility drop triggering short positions, which then get trapped as buying volume surges, presenting trading opportunities to the upside despite mixed longer-term momentum. The speaker emphasizes the usefulness of the volatility indicator for real-time reversal signals, particularly on shorter timeframes like the one-minute chart.

30:17

Volatility indicator and intraday trading signals

30:17

The segment explains the importance of recognizing subtle volume weaknesses beneath price action, highlighting that increased buying volume supports upward movement despite some selling pressure. It emphasizes that these principles apply universally across different chart types and asset classes. The speaker discusses monitoring multiple time frames to detect volatility triggers that may not be visible on shorter or longer intervals, using color-coded indicators to confirm bullish trends in intraday trading. They advise traders to be patient during potential congestion or minor reversals, suggesting taking profits when appropriate and waiting for clear breakouts beyond key price levels before entering new positions.

31:39

Managing trades with volatility and volume

31:39

The speaker explains that if a trader does not re-enter the market immediately, they should look for a possible reversal trade back down to the volume point (VP). They note that volume is falling, indicated by two downward candles, which does not suggest a strong bearish trend at that moment. The session is paused briefly for a short break before the next webinar starting in seven minutes.

32:06

Webinar closing and future sessions info

32:06

The speaker thanks the audience for attending, apologizes for the late start, and promises to begin on time in the future. They mention seeing attendees again shortly or later in the trading day. Additionally, they point out that all indicators and trading tools can be found at quantumtrading.com, including platforms like MT4.

32:33

Quantum Trading indicators and platform support

32:33

The speaker discusses several trading platforms including NinjaTrader 7 and 8, TradingView, and TradeStation versions 9.5 and 10, highlighting the incorporation of the powerful Radar Screen feature. Customers can move their indicators between platforms without any charge, allowing flexibility to start with one platform and switch to another. When upgrading packages or purchasing multiple indicators, users receive full credit, ensuring they never lose their initial investment. The full package, especially for TradeStation currently priced at $677, includes all future indicators free of charge. The speaker encourages investing now as prices may increase once more indicators are developed. Additionally, a mention is made of an education program called the Complete Forex Trading.

34:28

Complete Forex Trading program overview

34:28

The program is comprehensive, covering essential modules on psychology, fundamental analysis, and relational analysis to understand market interconnections, such as bonds, commodities, and currency pairs. It includes a deep dive into technical analysis, specifically Volume Price Analysis (VPA), explaining its principles and how to apply it to identify trend pauses and reversals versus pullbacks, which helps prevent premature trade exits. The course offers extensive video content with hundreds of hours of VPA chart examples, indicator usage, webinars, and additional resources. Recently, the QTE funded forex program was added to enhance practical trading opportunities.

36:00

QTE funded forex program explained

36:00

The program offers students the opportunity to trade with funded accounts starting at $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. After proving consistent trading performance by reaching achievable targets, the account size is multiplied fourfold, then doubled repeatedly, allowing traders to manage accounts up to one or two million dollars. This setup involves no financial risk to the student except a one-time fee to join the program.

37:27

All trading indicators and platforms such as MT4, NinjaTrader 7 and 8, TradingView, and TradeStation (versions 9.5 and 10) are available at quantumtrading.com. Customers can freely transfer their indicators between platforms without any charges. Upgrading indicator packages also comes with credit for previous purchases, ensuring that customers do not lose their initial investment. The TradeStation platform includes the powerful RadarScreen feature.

39:01

Indicator transfers and upgrade credits policy

39:01

The current price of the platform is approximately $677. As more indicators are developed, the price will increase to align with the MT45 platform. Investing now with Trading View is advantageous since all future indicators will be provided free of charge as part of the package. This offer applies to full package investors as a token of appreciation. Additionally, the education program titled ‘Complete Forex Trading Program’ is comprehensive, covering essential topics such as trading psychology, fundamental analysis, and relational analysis to help users understand market interrelationships.

40:02

Program modules: psychology, fundamentals, technicals

40:02

This segment covers an in-depth exploration of risk relationships among bonds, bond yields, and commodities within market structures. It includes a detailed study of technical analysis, specifically Volume Price Analysis (VPA), focusing on its principles and application. The content teaches how to recognize when a market trend is pausing or reversing, distinguishing between primary trend changes and pullbacks to prevent premature trade exits. Additionally, it highlights extensive resources such as hundreds of hours of VPA video examples, webinars with instructors, and a comprehensive resource library. The segment concludes by introducing the QTE Funded Forex Program, exclusively available to enrolled students, designed to help them apply their knowledge practically.

41:34

QTE program trading account scaling and risk

41:34

The program offers a no-risk trading opportunity where you trade using the company’s money. You start with an evaluation account of $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000 and must meet an achievable target to prove consistent trading ability. Once proven, your account size is multiplied by four, for example, a $15,000 account becomes $60,000, and then it doubles repeatedly, allowing you to trade accounts up to one or two million dollars. There is only a one-time fee to enter the program, which is optional, providing a comprehensive opportunity for students to grow their trading capital significantly.

42:30

Final remarks and webinar conclusion

42:30

The speaker encourages viewers to leverage their knowledge and gain confidence in trading large money accounts without risk. They conclude the video by expressing hope that the audience enjoyed it and hinting at more content to come, thanking viewers and signing off.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis