Day trading e-mini s&p & currency futures along with gold and oil

Day trading e-mini s&p futures, along with gold and oil

00:11

Introduction and price action overview

00:11

The speaker begins by greeting the audience and confirming audio and screen sharing are working. They introduce a discussion on recent price action observed on the Nasdaq (NQ) daily chart, highlighting a notable example of Volume Price Analysis (VPA). An annotated chart shared previously on Facebook is referenced, illustrating classic VPA patterns and some divergence, particularly noting attempts by the YM (Dow Jones futures) to rally despite the narrow price movements.

01:15

Market fragility and Columbus Day rally

01:15

The market is currently fragile and showing signs of weakness, with the ES struggling to maintain its position in a thinly traded area. A notable recent event was the Columbus Day candle, which featured an unusual strong rally despite markets being theoretically closed for the public holiday. This type of volatility and rapid price movement on thin volumes is common during the lead-up to Christmas, particularly in the first two weeks of December, when market activity is reduced and market makers often influence price action.

02:15

Volume point of control and waterfall start

02:15

The market is experiencing rapid movements and unusual pricing due to thin market conditions, allowing some traders to profit significantly. Despite equal volume at the top candle, the market shows weakness and stagnation, leading to a developing waterfall decline. The likely stopping point is near the volume point of control (VPOC), with a potential drop of several hundred points. While the longer-term trend remains bullish, the intraday outlook is fragile, suggesting possible significant daily moves under current market conditions.

03:07

Short-term time frames and market weakness

03:07

The speaker analyzes a market showing weakness, highlighting multiple upper wicks indicating selling pressure and resistance levels that prevent rallies. The market is expected to decline toward the volume point of control on the five-minute chart, where it may congest for the remainder of the session. Strong price resistance levels are noted, further limiting upward movement.

03:54

Focusing on the YM (E-mini Dow futures), the speaker observes weak attempts at rallying across multiple time frames from 15 seconds to 15 minutes. They emphasize the importance of trading on very fast time frames, particularly under one or two minutes, when the market is in a congestion phase, to capture small profits. Experience supports this approach as suitable for the current market context.

04:52

VPA signals and volume analysis

04:52

The segment describes market activity around three o’clock UK time, focusing on volume price analysis (VPA). It highlights a high volume candle with a large wick indicating weakness, followed by price movement down to the volume point of control where the market oscillates. The discussion includes an overview of the one-minute chart showing parallel volume surges and settling as the market moves between key levels established earlier in the session.

06:10

This part explains how VPA provides an indicative sense of market strength or weakness through candle patterns rather than single signals. It emphasizes watching the position of wicks—upper body wicks suggest weakness as the market struggles to rally, while lower body wicks indicate buying support. Examples of indecision candles and weak candles with high volume are given to illustrate fluctuating market attempts to rally amid selling pressure.

06:58

The market’s struggle to break through a volume resistance zone is analyzed, showing multiple failed rallies and the importance of volume in pushing price levels. The segment explains that moving lower through a wedge of volume requires significant effort, and if the market breaks through, it is expected to quickly move to a low volume node around 230. This would lead to a period of price congestion due to several factors related to market structure and volume distribution.

08:00

Support, resistance and congestion zones

08:00

The speaker explains the importance of volume point of control and price-based support between the 210 and 220 levels, suggesting the market is likely to congest around this area. They discuss the potential for a 40-point move on the YM and emphasize the need to assess how quickly the price might move and where it could encounter support or resistance, particularly near 230 and 220. The speaker advises traders to analyze charts across multiple timeframes to identify where the market might pause and to evaluate if the potential reward justifies the risk. They stress the value of using chart information over rigid risk-reward ratios when deciding to enter a trade.

10:00

Multi-timeframe volume and trend insights

10:00

The speaker explains how to analyze price action using volume and support clusters across multiple time frames. They highlight the importance of the volume point of control, noting that strong support levels are indicated by thick lines on the accumulation distribution indicator. These strong levels have been tested multiple times, creating a solid platform that will likely influence short positions.

10:56

The discussion focuses on a low volume node within a larger volume area, emphasizing that for a meaningful price breakdown to occur, there must be a rise in volume accompanied by falling price and widening spreads. The speaker then analyzes a 10-minute chart, explaining that a recent market reversal was triggered by volatility but lacked significant volume, signaling a likely trap move where market makers push prices higher to induce weak positions.

11:52

The speaker highlights bearish signals from large wick candles at the top of the price action, indicating downward pressure despite some buying support. They note the presence of volume point of control acting as resistance around 240 and point out multiple volatility candles on the 15-minute chart. These volatility candles typically signal either congestion or full reversals, setting expectations for potential market behavior.

12:47

Volatility candles and resistance levels

12:47

The speaker discusses trading around the R3 level on the Camarilla levels indicator, noting its significance but choosing not to elaborate further. They then shift focus to oil, briefly mentioning related content available on Facebook from earlier in the evening.

13:22

Trading breakouts and patience importance

13:22

The segment explains the importance of patience when trading breakaways and breakouts, emphasizing the tactical advantages and disadvantages of this approach. It highlights how volume point of control and accumulation distribution indicators help identify strong support and resistance levels, which are crucial for setting stop losses. The discussion includes how increased volume during a market breakdown confirms weakness, providing technical protection and confidence to hold positions during rallies characterized by falling volume. Overall, it outlines a methodical approach to managing risk and recognizing market behavior for effective trading.

15:19

Price waterfall and stopping volume explained

15:19

The segment explains a classic price waterfall pattern characterized by widening spreads and rising volume, signaling a potential pause or reversal in the market. Significant volume influx indicates stopping volume, where buyers begin to re-enter strongly after a downward move. This setup suggests closing or reducing positions to secure profits. The trend monitor remains steady without bearish signals, highlighting the value of capitalizing on such clear trend developments. It also notes that subsequent trading days tend to be more challenging, with frequent short-term trades required on very small time frames.

16:38

Currency futures and dollar selling trends

16:38

The discussion begins with an overview of currency futures, focusing on the dollar and its major pairs like 6a, 6b, 6c, 6e, 6j, and 6n. These futures are all quoted against the dollar, which provides a unified perspective on price action and volume. There is significant dollar selling occurring, which is reflected in the rising value of currency pairs quoted as the foreign currency against the dollar, such as the Canadian dollar rising strongly.

18:02

The Canadian dollar is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the dollar falling sharply. Despite some high volume and brief weakness, the trend remains intact, keeping traders invested. Other currencies like the euro and the pound show less strength, with the pound remaining flat and euro-dollar fluctuating in the middle, illustrating divergence in currency strength and highlighting the importance of monitoring these differences.

18:32

The Australian dollar and euro are moving but less strongly compared to the Canadian dollar. The yen-dollar pair is stable because both the dollar and yen are moving in the same direction at similar speeds, which limits the development of a strong trend. This is compared to two trains leaving a station at similar speeds, resulting in minimal relative movement and trend formation.

19:28

The strongest trend is observed in the Canadian dollar versus the dollar, with clear selling of the dollar and buying of the Canadian dollar. Attention then shifts to oil, where a significant downward move was noted earlier, demonstrating the importance of understanding price action and using indicators to interpret market volatility and snap moves effectively.

20:03

Oil market weakness and volatility triggers

20:03

The market is experiencing significant volume as big operators and market makers participate, driven by fear of missing out. Oil prices are currently bearish and weak, stuck in a congestion phase around 40 to 42.50 dollars per barrel. The supply and demand balance is fragile due to low demand, and until OPEC intervenes to control supply, prices are expected to remain unstable.

20:34

The weak supply and demand dynamic causes oil prices to fluctuate without strong direction. Traders reacting to rapid price drops often jump in to short the market, only to find themselves trapped in weak positions. This highlights the emotional pull and risk involved in trading volatile markets.

21:04

The volatility indicator reveals when price action moves beyond the average true range, triggering emotional responses from traders eager to enter fast-moving markets. This emotional reaction makes volatility a powerful and profitable tool for insiders and market makers, as many traders impulsively enter at unfavorable moments.

21:33

After an initial drop, the market reverses, causing traders caught in weak short positions to be stopped out. Despite attempts to rally, the market remains weak, characterized by high volume and falling prices. The price oscillates around the volume point of control without significant upward movement, reflecting ongoing market weakness.

21:55

Similar patterns of volatility and volume occur on shorter time frames, such as the 15-second and 10-minute charts. These indicators confirm ongoing market weakness despite occasional rallies, as volume spikes fail to push prices significantly higher.

22:24

Buying pressure is indicated by deep wicks and increased volume, leading to brief rallies. However, these are met with resistance and the overall market remains weak. The speaker then shifts focus to examine the situation in the indices for further insight.

22:47

Gold price action and volume concerns

22:47

The analysis begins with gold showing an upside move accompanied by significant volume, though one large volume candle appears suspiciously high. The price has broken away from the volume point of control with multiple support platforms, and while most volume looks acceptable, one candle raises caution as it may indicate potential profit taking. A detailed look at the one-minute timeframe reveals a candle with unusually high volume, prompting closer scrutiny.

23:44

Further examination shows a candle with double the volume of the previous one but lacking the expected price increase, signaling a mismatch between effort (volume) and result (price). This weak price action combined with selling pressure, evidenced by an upper wick, suggests a potential short-term reversal. A two-bar reversal pattern emerges on the one- and two-minute charts, marked by a bearish engulfing candle, highlighting short-term weakness though not necessarily a full trend reversal.

24:34

On the two-minute timeframe, the two-bar reversal pattern is confirmed with signs of weakness as the candle closes lower with a prominent upper wick on decent volume. The ten-minute chart shows mixed volume signals with some large candles but questionable strength as volume spikes in certain candles raise doubts. The market is carefully monitored for continuation or further weakness as volatility begins to increase.

25:22

Volatility spikes significantly on the 15-second timeframe with high volume, raising an alarm about short-term market instability. Despite this, gold continues to move strongly on the one-minute chart. Looking at the daily timeframe, resistance levels are apparent and will require substantial effort to overcome. The long-term outlook remains very bullish on gold, but key resistance zones must be breached before a sustained upward trend toward 2000 can be expected.

26:24

Index divergences and tech sector influence

26:24

The discussion focuses on market volume and the relative strength of major indices. The YM (Dow Jones) shows some resistance but is not particularly strong, while the NQ (Nasdaq) appears weak and is not supporting a rally. Traders are advised to monitor the Nasdaq closely because it has historically led or dragged the other indices, including the YM and the S&P 500, due to differences in their composition and sector focus. The Nasdaq’s weakness could influence the overall market direction, given its distinct characteristics and tech-heavy makeup compared to the other indices.

28:21

NQ trading opportunities and patience

28:21

The speaker analyzes multiple time frames of the NQ market, ranging from 15 seconds to 15 minutes, considering whether it might develop into a trade opportunity. They emphasize the importance of patience while waiting for the price to break away from key regions, noting some early signs of weakness such as a price waterfall and widening spreads. The discussion highlights watching volume and price action closely, with potential for a decent profit if the market moves as anticipated.

29:45

The analysis continues with observations of rising volume and a pullback to the volume point of control (VPOC), suggesting a possible 20-25 point move. The speaker compares current price behavior to a similar pattern from the previous day, noting that momentum could develop later in the session. They point out that the trend monitors have turned bright red, indicating a bearish sentiment and a fragile market likely to break down, advising close attention to this evolving situation.

30:47

Market makers’ role and volume analysis

30:47

The speaker explains how market makers influence price movements by setting prices as they see fit, similar to creating a price for any product. Market participation is driven by price action, and understanding volume is key to identifying market maker activity. Volume reveals whether market makers are participating, which is fundamental to volume price analysis. Finally, the speaker mentions the availability of related indicators on quantumtrading.com, compatible with various trading platforms including NinjaTrader, TradingView, and TradeStation, with specific versions supporting interactive brokers accounts.

32:24

QuantumTrading indicators and platforms

32:24

The speaker highlights the benefits of the TradeStation platform, praising its features like the radar screen available on both systems and the enhanced version 10 with TradeStation Securities. Plans include dedicated webinars and increased focus on stocks. Following this, the speaker mentions adding more indicators to TradingView, offering these extra indicators free with the full TradingView package. They also reference resources available on Anacooling.com, including videos and books on Amazon Kindle and paperback, and note that the forex education program is hosted at quantumtradingeducation.com.

33:19

Forex education program overview

33:19

The program is a comprehensive forex trading course, consisting of approximately 250 hours of video and around 440 lessons. It covers all essential aspects to trade confidently, including trading psychology, fundamentals, relational technical mechanics, and various modules. The course includes numerous examples on using indicators, as well as topic-specific webinars explaining tactical market approaches. The Volume Price Analysis (VPA) methodology taught is universal and applicable to any market with price and volume data. The session concludes with a mention of the VPA traders chat room and a note about returning next week.

34:20

Closing remarks and next session info

34:20

The speaker invites viewers to join the London Forex session at 7:45 UK time, expresses appreciation for their attendance, and wishes them a good trading day and week. They also mention returning next week at the same time.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis