Digging out the trading opportunities on Aussie dollar and EUR/NZD

Digging out the trading opportunities on Aussie dollar and EUR/NZD

00:12

Aussie dollar selling and currency indices update

00:12

The speaker discusses recent movements in currency markets, focusing on the Australian dollar (Aussie) which is showing strong buying activity. The US dollar is experiencing selling pressure, particularly evident across various currency indices including the yen, euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Swiss franc. The analysis uses short-term charts, such as 15-second intervals, to highlight rapid trends with the Aussie dollar gaining strength while the pound is selling off. The speaker notes the dynamic nature of these moves, driven by factors affecting both buying and selling sides.

01:21

New Zealand and Aussie dollar strength analysis

01:21

The segment analyzes currency strength, focusing on the US dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Australian dollar. It highlights a strong move in the New Zealand dollar, marginally stronger than the Australian dollar, indicating selling pressure on the US dollar. The discussion includes examining currency pairs on multiple timeframes (3, 5, and 15 minutes) to assess trending strength and overall market sentiment toward the US dollar, determining whether it is being universally bought or sold.

02:48

Universal market sentiment on US dollar

02:48

The speaker explains the concept of the ‘full house’ in currency trading, where many currencies move upward while others decline, indicating that the entire market is collectively selling a particular currency. They highlight the limitation of trading based on a single chart, as it provides no context about the broader market dynamics.

03:15

Risks of trading against currency flows

03:15

The speaker explains the importance of trading with the overall currency flow, likening it to moving with the current of a river. Trading against this flow increases risk and the likelihood of sudden reversals. However, there are valid exceptions, such as when local factors like political events or specific fundamental data cause a currency to move against the general trend. Examples include Brexit and elections, which can drive unique currency movements independent of the universal flow.

04:16

Currency pairs overbought and oversold alerts

04:16

The speaker explains how the currency strength indicator shows currencies fluctuating, highlighting when they approach overbought or oversold conditions. The ranking ladder visually indicates these states with color changes, providing potential trading opportunities. However, these are only signals, and traders should verify with detailed chart analysis including volume and other factors. The focus here is on currency pairs’ movements, distinct from the individual currency strength indicators that represent the market’s fundamental components.

05:07

Volume analysis and volatility candle review

05:07

The speaker explains the significance of brackets indicating potential overbought and oversold conditions in the market. They review a chart showing a pullback and highlight a large candle with significant volume, reflecting bullish sentiment despite volatility trading within that candle.

05:38

The discussion focuses on volume patterns, noting notable buying interest but with volume lower than expected for typical London open levels. The speaker points out that the volume supporting a wide-ranging candle appears lightweight compared to previous volume levels, raising concerns about the strength of the rally.

06:05

The speaker emphasizes the importance of comparing volume levels across similar candles within a session. They note that when volume and price action are out of sync, it often leads to price pullbacks. This comparative analysis is a key part of understanding market movements and volume-price relationships.

06:36

The method of using benchmark candles within a session to evaluate whether volume is high, low, or in agreement with price is explained. This comparison helps traders interpret whether moves represent traps, strong buying, or selling pressure, providing a framework to assess market strength and sentiment.

07:06

Using a 15-second chart as an example, the speaker illustrates how quick analysis of volume and volatility candles can explain market reversals. The presence of a volatility candle signals an anticipated move, and understanding these patterns helps clarify why strong downward moves and subsequent reversals occur.

07:35

Volume point of control and market congestion

07:35

The speaker discusses the significance of the volume point of control on the chart, highlighting it as the area with the heaviest concentration of volume which typically causes market congestion. They emphasize that the market is unlikely to break through this level immediately due to strong volume and support indicated by the accumulation distribution indicator, suggesting potential for a market reversal.

08:00

The explanation continues about different types of support: volume-based support and price-based support. Multiple reasons are cited for expecting the market to reverse at this point. The importance of using multiple timeframes is stressed, whether for chart analysis or indicator use, to better understand market dynamics. On the three-minute chart, some buying activity is observed but the volume point of control remains a key resistance area.

08:31

The market is expected to congest around the volume point of control rather than move sharply. Levels for potential breakout moves are identified, with an upper target around 60-120 points for a break higher and a lower floor that could break on good volume. The current phase is one of congestion and limited movement as the market prepares for a directional move.

08:59

After a recent upward move, traders might take profits or close positions temporarily. For longer-term trends, a break through a significant resistance level is needed along with the development of a more consistent trend beyond a large volatility candle. The speaker notes strong buying interest in the euro, which was anticipated based on earlier observations.

09:34

Strong buying examples on Euro New Zealand pair

09:34

The speaker examines currency charts, focusing on Euro/New Zealand and Euro/CAD pairs. The Euro/CAD chart shows some development but not strong momentum. The Euro/New Zealand chart appears more interesting, displaying significant volume and clear VPA (Volume Price Analysis) signals. There is strong buying pressure indicated by narrow spreads and high volume, suggesting a potential reversal supported by stopping volume and buying volume patterns.

11:03

Using Renko charts and multiple timeframes

11:03

The segment explains how to use Renko charts alongside multiple time frame, time-based charts for scalping trading strategies. Renko charts flatten price action and, when combined with a Renko optimizer using automatic ATR settings, deliver optimal brick sizes based on the timeframe and instrument. The presenter demonstrates this on fast timeframes like 15-second to one-minute charts, noting that slower timeframes produce larger brick sizes. Users should regularly check and adjust settings during sessions, especially on faster timeframes. The trend monitor and trend dots are used in conjunction with Renko charts to track transitions and confirm trends, providing a robust trading setup that works well on both Renko and time-based charts.

13:26

Trend monitors and trading indicators overview

13:26

The speaker explains the current market conditions showing congestion with trend dots turning gray and then reversing to blue, indicating an active trend. They describe this as comfortable trading for intraday or scalping traders, emphasizing the use of various tools like the matrix, array CSI, and charts to identify trading opportunities. The one-minute time-based chart provides a clear heads-up on expected market behavior.

14:25

There is a strong resistance level around 365 that has been tested multiple times, suggesting the market may pause or fail to rally beyond it. However, if the price breaks through this resistance on good volume, it could lead to a significant upward move with profitable pips to capture. The speaker then shifts to discussing indicator availability, noting that all updated indicators are available on quantum trading’s website for multiple platforms including MT4, MT5, NinjaTrader 7 and 8, and TradingView, with licenses covering both MT4/5 and NinjaTrader versions.

15:42

Forex trading program and platform updates

15:42

The speaker explains that there are two versions of TradeStation being developed: TradeStation Global and TradeStation Securities. TradeStation Global runs on version 9.5 and is integrated with Interactive Brokers, allowing users with IB accounts to use its data feed, which offers tight forex spreads and access to multiple markets. TradeStation Securities, also known as TradeStation 10, uses its own TradeStation data feed. The dual development is causing delays.

16:39

The complete forex trading program is described as the gold standard in forex education, offering comprehensive coverage beyond just indicators. It includes full sets of trading indicators compatible with platforms like MT4/5, NinjaTrader, and TradingView. The program consists of five core modules covering psychology, fundamental analysis, relational aspects, and detailed technical mechanics, including volume and price analysis.

17:14

Comprehensive trading education and community

17:14

The speaker describes a comprehensive trading program designed to elevate participants to a VP or ninja trader level. It includes a vast library of HR examples, indicator usage, and checklists, along with numerous webinars covering topics like breakout trading, trend trading, and reversals. The program is supported by a large tutorial and Q&A webinar library, backed by thirteen PDF downloads covering subjects such as trading psychology and detailed analysis of Federal Reserve statements and market reactions.

18:19

The program also offers a supportive community through a chat room where the instructors and experienced full-time traders actively engage, providing guidance and sharing knowledge. This friendly environment encourages participants to ask questions and share trades. The session concludes with thanks to attendees, a reminder of upcoming sessions on Forex and US futures next week, and encouragement to enjoy the rest of the trading day.

19:18

Session wrap-up and upcoming schedule

19:18

The speaker concludes by encouraging everyone to stay safe and well, and bids farewell until next time.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis