Day trading multiple time frames using volume price analysis
00:00
Webinar introduction and market overview
00:00
The webinar host welcomes participants and acknowledges the different time zones of attendees. The session will focus on the current state of the U.S. markets, with some discussion on forex and forex futures. The host is joined by Anna and her husband David.
00:28
British pound and disclaimer on trading risks
00:28
The speaker notes a positive movement in the British pound and plans to analyze it from the futures market perspective, with input from David on a commodity. A disclaimer is given highlighting the risks of trading and advising viewers not to invest money they cannot afford to lose.
00:56
Volume Price Analysis (VPA) explained
00:56
The segment introduces volume price analysis, explaining it as the study of how price action interacts with trading volume on charts. It emphasizes the importance of determining whether a price move is genuine, a trap, or an anomaly, which helps traders predict future price direction.
01:26
VPA methodology and example books
01:26
The speaker introduces a book available on Amazon that explains a specific methodology and its underlying concepts. To complement the theory, there is an accompanying workbook containing over 200 practical examples across various time frames, addressing traders’ and investors’ requests for real chart applications.
02:02
Application of VPA to various markets
02:02
The speaker discusses a trading tool designed for indices, many stocks, some commodities, and a forex version. They mention a request from a trader on their Twitter feed to analyze the Indian market and stocks. The speaker emphasizes their willingness to look at any chart and hints at explaining how Volume Price Analysis (VPA) works, referencing a ticker in the top left corner.
02:40
Importance of earnings season for US stocks
02:40
The speaker explains that charts may be almost irrelevant from a technical analysis perspective in some cases, emphasizing the importance of considering fundamental news, especially for stocks. They highlight that for U.S. stocks, paying attention to earnings season is crucial for day traders. An example is given of a retail company that experienced a significant pre-market surge based on earnings news.
03:14
Visualizing VPA as foundational methodology
03:14
The speaker discusses a trading example involving a five percent open gap and introduces a slide from their forex trading program to explain Volume Price Analysis (VPA). This slide, inspired by a student’s feedback, visually represents VPA as a foundational methodology within technical analysis. The speaker attempts to show a graphic, described as a house, symbolizing the five key elements that make up VPA and its role in trading and investing.
04:24
Five key elements of VPA methodology
04:24
This segment emphasizes the significance of five key elements in trading methodology: volume, price action, candles, candle patterns, and support and resistance. Volume and price are described as primary tools and leading indicators that provide real-time information, while support and resistance are highlighted as crucial components that complete the approach.
04:57
Primary and secondary tools in analysis
04:57
The speaker explains the concept of secondary tools in trading analysis, clarifying that these tools are not second best but rather supportive aids. These tools help traders interpret chart structures and make better trading decisions. Common examples mentioned include moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, and fractals, which are widely recognized and used by traders.
05:32
Role of time and multiple timeframes
05:32
The speaker explains the importance of considering time across multiple timeframes in analysis. They highlight that while most platforms provide standard tools, their approach advances this by developing specific tools tailored to support their primary methodology, which is based on volume and especially on support and resistance levels.
06:08
Developed tools supporting VPA
06:08
The speaker emphasizes the importance of VPA (Volume Price Analysis) and shares that a trader found this perspective very useful. They mention that understanding how different indicators and tools work is crucial, and they plan to demonstrate their approach using screenshots taken earlier in the session.
06:42
NQ price action and volatility explained
06:42
The speaker analyzes price action on the NQ using a three-minute chart, noting typical volatility at the market’s cash open characterized by whipsawing and large candle spreads beyond the average true range. They explain the market’s need to settle after such volatility and observe that it appears to be preparing to break away from the volume point of control, an indicator combining volume and price over time. This indicates a congestion phase, and the longer the market remains in this phase, the stronger the breakout is expected to be.
07:50
Wyckoff’s laws influence on VPA
07:50
The speaker explains that their approach is based on Richard Wyckoff’s second law of cause and effect. They acknowledge that the five elements of volume price analysis owe a great debt to Wyckoff’s work, particularly his three laws. The focus will be on analyzing the NQ, while David is handling the YM, representing the Dow.
08:25
Review of news and economic calendar impact
08:25
The speaker addresses technical difficulties with Forex Factory, noting issues accessing it in their jurisdiction and instead using Financial Juice for updates. They review recent economic news, including US building permits and upcoming Federal Reserve speakers later in the day. The market has mostly absorbed the data, but there was a notable early movement in the Nasdaq 100 index around 11:30 AM, which prompted closer examination of the price action.
10:06
NQ volatility candle and volume analysis
10:06
The speaker analyzes a large upward candle with widespread volume but not a significant amount overall, noting it was somewhat anomalous. The candle had a wick at the top, and combined with a volatility trigger, these signs suggested it might have been a spoof move designed to mislead traders into going long. This strong move broke away from a period of congestion, with the Nasdaq showing little activity in the prior hour and a half. The price then reacted classically by retreating into the candle’s spread, highlighting the importance of the candle’s high and low as key support and resistance levels.
11:16
Support and resistance in price action
11:16
The speaker explains the concept of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the context of trading, emphasizing the importance of waiting for a clear break in price movement after observing congestion within a candle’s spread. They then indicate moving on to the next topic and mention following up on something interesting related to a link they had sent earlier.
11:51
Using moving averages with VPA
11:51
The speaker explains the use of Volume Price Analysis (VPA) and how it can be combined with standard or quantum indicators, emphasizing the flexibility of the methodology. They highlight moving averages as a popular tool for traders, especially effective during trends. The discussion includes how a trader utilized moving averages to identify trend exits or reversals, with the speaker agreeing but advising that price action and volume should be analyzed first before relying on moving averages.
13:02
Limitations of moving averages in congestion
13:02
The speaker explains the limitations and uses of moving averages, particularly during congestion phases where they are less effective for trading. Moving averages are more useful once a clear trend has started. The discussion then shifts to analyzing price action alongside volume, highlighting a clear downtrend characterized by a large volatility candle that breaks below the low of a previous candle, signaling a potential continuation of the downward movement.
14:08
Downtrend and volume confirmation
14:08
The speaker analyzes a downward price movement characterized by a strong bearish candle with significant volume and a deep wick on top, indicating a likely continuation lower. A subsequent candle with low volume and an upper wick suggests a minor pullback rather than a trend reversal. Following this, another bearish candle appears with reasonable volume, but the market then enters a congestion phase. This sequence highlights the importance of volume and wick patterns in confirming price direction and identifying consolidation periods after volatility breaks.
15:13
Use of 9-period exponential moving average
15:13
The speaker explains their use of the nine-period moving average in chart analysis, noting its popularity among Ichimoku traders. They mention occasionally using a 200-period or fractal adaptive moving average for forex. The nine-period moving average is highlighted as significant, alongside others like 14 and 26 periods, though the speaker is uncertain about the exact values and encourages verification. The discussion transitions to a recent price move lower into a congestion area with defined support and resistance levels.
16:11
Market congestion and resistance levels
16:11
The speaker describes a trading scenario with strong resistance and support levels, noting a sudden unexpected market movement. They reference a financial news feed that explained the event, implying prior warnings about various risk factors had been shared with the audience.
16:45
US tech companies and antitrust risks
16:45
The discussion focuses on factors disrupting markets, highlighting the looming decision by Congress to address the monopolistic power of major tech companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple. These companies are accused of anti-trust violations due to their dominance and elimination of competition. Legislation aimed at breaking up these big tech firms has passed through Congress and is likely to be enacted, contingent on the Democratic Party gaining control of the Senate, House, and presidency. This potential breakup could significantly impact the value and structure of these companies.
18:32
Political impact on tech stocks and market
18:32
The discussion highlights the uncertainty and volatility surrounding the US election, emphasizing how companies might sell off parts of their business if profitability is threatened. The timing and outcome of the election remain unclear, with no expectation of immediate results on election day. The impact on markets depends on the election results, such as which party controls the presidency, Congress, and Senate, with particular attention on scenarios where the Senate may not shift control, which could influence company valuations and stock price movements, especially in sectors like the Nasdaq.
19:46
Election uncertainty affecting markets
19:46
The segment discusses an article explaining the significant consequences the presidential election may have on companies. It highlights that the election impacts not only the states but also the global market and the stock market. The speaker describes a recent sharp sell-off in trading, illustrated by a prominent volatility candle overshadowing other trading volume bars.
20:17
Market sell-off and buying after volatility
20:17
The speaker reviews recent market activity, noting initial buying followed by congestion within the candle spread. They highlight the transition into the market open, where price action tends to pause and consolidate. The discussion includes observations from a Renko chart showing a sharp downward move, and mentions a volatility candle indicating further congestion. The volume point of control (VPOC) shifted downward, followed by a small sell-off and subsequent buying on a hammer candle and the preceding candle.
21:26
Buying pressure and congestion at VPOC
21:26
The segment analyzes recent price action highlighting a down candle with a deep wick indicating strong buying pressure underneath. This buying caused the price to move back to the volume profile (VP) area, where it congested until the market open. The price then pulled away from the volume point of control but returned to a previously congested area seen earlier. The moving average is moving sideways, reflecting the congestion phase in the chart. The discussion emphasizes understanding chart structure, price action, and volume behavior during this phase.
22:28
Price action, volume, and congestion analysis
22:28
The segment discusses price action during a congestion phase, noting that the indicator behaves as expected. After a pullback, the price likely returns to the volume point of control, indicating underlying market weakness. The speaker highlights the importance of observing falling prices with rising volume to confirm a downtrend, while any rally attempts are expected to lack volume support. The current price behavior on the Renko chart is described as messy and whipsawing, reflecting a range-bound market.
23:33
Chart timeframes and trading strategies
23:33
The speaker discusses different chart types, including seconds, minute, tick, and Renko charts, and how they impact trading points. They note that slower time charts are currently moving back to the volume point of control, suggesting a potential fake-out in the price movement, especially on faster time frames.
24:02
Closing remarks and Q&A invitation
24:02
The speaker concludes their segment by inviting questions from the audience, either live or via the chat box, and then hands over to David, who will discuss various topics including additional VPA insights and other relevant subjects.
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