Forex trading using the Quantum Trading indicators and volume price analysis

Forex trading using the Quantum Trading indicators and volume price analysis

00:08

Webinar introduction and trading disclaimer

00:08

The webinar begins with a welcome and an apology for the delayed audio start. The presenter reminds viewers about the risks of trading and advises against using money they cannot afford to lose. They then prepare to discuss current market conditions and a trading setup involving the Euro-Aussie currency pair, indicating they will review charts shortly. The presenter also mentions needing to check various news sources and market updates.

01:19

The presenter describes the different trading platforms they and their colleague David use, including MT4, MP4, TradingView, Ninja, and TradeStation. David is expected to share insights on his recent trades involving the US dollar. The segment ends with a brief note that there is little significant news affecting the markets at that time.

01:52

Market sentiment and inflation impact

01:52

Inflation expectations in New Zealand have risen significantly, leading to heavy buying of the kiwi currency. The discussion highlights the importance of commodity currencies as sentiment indicators, with a particular focus on US market indices driving global market sentiment. Despite some local impacts from stock futures declining, US indexes like the Nasdaq and Dow 30 are showing modest gains, influencing the overall market mood.

03:05

The Nasdaq is approaching a potential breakout or double top formation, reflecting uncertainty in the market. As Thanksgiving ends, the market enters the run-up to Christmas, typically characterized by positive sentiment and end-of-year window dressing. However, memories of 2018’s market behavior and the influence of interest rate decisions remain important factors affecting market direction and currency strength.

04:09

Interest rate expectations, particularly regarding the Bank of England, are key drivers influencing currencies like the British pound and New Zealand dollar. The segment stresses the importance of understanding correlations between capital markets to identify solid trading opportunities. Additionally, the less well-known but highly volatile COSBY index is noted as a useful barometer of Asian market sentiment, which remains fragile but is attempting to hold steady through year-end.

05:26

Analysis of the currency and stock market charts reveals a daily shooting star pattern on the dollar index, signaling potential trend reversals. A trader named David closed out a profitable long-dollar position based on this technical signal. The segment concludes with observations of recent buying in the Australian and New Zealand dollars and simultaneous selling pressure on traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, indicating a collective market shift.

07:00

Euro Aussie chart setup and VPA concepts

07:05

The speaker discusses the selling of the dollar and focuses on the Euro-Aussie currency pair, highlighting a strong update and price action analysis. They explain their use of volume price analysis (VPA), which incorporates five elements: price action, volume, support and resistance, candle patterns, and time frames. The speaker mentions the use of proprietary indicators and camarilla levels, which function similarly to Fibonacci levels and help identify key price points for potential reversals, pauses, and stop placements.

08:20

Camarilla levels, especially those on the daily chart, are emphasized as important for the rest of the trading week. The Euro-Aussie bounced off a key camarilla support level (S3) and tested resistance (R3), showing bullish signs despite some pullbacks. The proximity of these levels indicates strong price-based resistance and support, making the current setup favorable for a potential upside trade based on recent daily chart corrections.

09:32

The speaker notes that camarilla levels remain valid on various time frames, from intraday to weekly, providing a flexible and sophisticated tool for traders. They acknowledge the limitations of backtesting for their proprietary indicators, suggesting observational learning through chart analysis instead. The best approach to mastering this system is to start with simple price action and volume signals on faster time frames, gradually building knowledge through experience and pattern recognition.

10:45

Support and resistance are fundamental components of VPA, which can be applied manually or with proprietary indicators. The speaker explains the concept of volume-based price support and resistance, derived from the volume point of control, an area on the chart with significant traded volume indicating price agreement or congestion. These congestion phases are crucial as they often precede trend development, illustrated by a classic congestion pattern observed on the Euro-Aussie daily chart.

12:31

Congestion phases can be challenging for traders due to false breakouts, requiring patience and careful analysis using volume and candle patterns. The speaker highlights an example where attempts to move higher showed candle wicks indicating selling pressure and inherent weakness in the upward movement. The eventual break to the downside aligned with strong volume, confirming the desired price action. This analysis approach is applicable across different time frames, reinforcing the importance of volume and price interplay in trading decisions.

14:00

Trading breakouts, congestion, and stop-loss

14:10

The segment discusses the strategy of trading breakaways or breakouts from congestion, emphasizing the importance of placing tight stop-losses to limit losses. It explains that although many trades may be stopped out, successful trends yield strong moves that compensate for small losses. The speaker analyzes recent market trends, noting a primary downward trend with some short-term upward corrections supported by volume analysis and the concept of market momentum and reversals taking time.

15:52

The focus shifts to intraday context and short-term trading indicators, highlighting a potential minor pullback due to price resistance levels. Attention is given to the euro’s recent performance, which has experienced a significant sell-off despite some attempts to rally. The speaker notes their contrarian position against the prevailing bearish sentiment on the euro, supported by both daily and hourly chart observations showing repeated failed attempts to move higher.

17:28

The discussion explains the euro’s complex dynamics influenced by both economic factors and political challenges within the Eurozone, such as high debt levels in countries like Italy and Spain. Unlike other central banks with more flexibility, the European Central Bank faces political constraints affecting interest rate decisions. This political-economic interplay is identified as a key driver behind the euro’s significant sell-off.

19:14

The speaker examines the euro’s relative strength against various currencies using a cross-sectional indicator and commodity currency analysis. They note that euro-New Zealand dollar is particularly weak, consistent with bearish daily charts, and observe modest strength in euro-Canadian and euro-Australian dollar pairs. A recent crossover in the euro-Canadian dollar pair signals an underway move, which the speaker caught early to illustrate a developing trading opportunity.

20:58

Multiple chart types and timeframes are used to analyze the euro-Australian dollar pair, highlighting a recent downward break through key levels such as volume point of control and support/resistance levels (S3 and R3). The segment explains how volume and price action combined with retests of these levels indicate potential weakness and bearish momentum, setting the stage for a trading decision.

22:04

The analysis focuses on reversal trading strategies, identifying a breakaway trade setup and a two-bar reversal pattern that appears particularly effective in the forex market. The reversal is supported by volume and price-based support levels, with the presence of a deep wick on the candle suggesting strong buying interest. This combination of technical signals strengthens the likelihood of a successful reversal trade in this context.

23:00

Two-bar reversal and entry strategies

23:08

The speaker discusses analyzing rising volume in relation to support and resistance levels, emphasizing the importance of key levels where price may pause. They explain how a two-bar reversal can indicate potential price movement, but traders must decide their level of aggressiveness based on trend dots and trend monitor signals. Conservative traders might wait for confirmation beyond the S3 level, while more speculative traders might enter earlier.

24:08

The discussion continues on trading decisions, highlighting the role of Renko charts in reducing noise compared to time charts. The speaker notes how matching dot colors with the trend monitor on Renko charts can guide entries, suggesting at least three to four matches for confirmation. The conservative entry point aligns with the S3 level, supported by price action such as a candle with a bottom wick, indicating potential support.

25:22

The speaker reflects on the trade’s potential path, pointing out that the price is approaching the S3 level on the hourly chart, which carries significant weight as a support/resistance zone. They caution that price may pause at this level, which aligns with observed market behavior. Attention shifts to the upcoming busy London market session, and the speaker reviews the CSI indicator showing strong buying momentum in the Euro, although patience is advised due to the expected pause at the S3.

26:38

The final segment highlights how the Renko chart helps filter noise on faster time frames and supports setting short-term targets around the S3 level, a likely pause or congestion point. The speaker notes that although the S3 is not a major level, it is significant for this time frame. They mention various indicators including VPA and candle patterns to assess market conditions and conclude with a greeting, preparing to share further analysis.

28:00

Currency matrix and indicator updates

28:10

The speaker discusses using three trading platforms simultaneously: NinjaTrader, TradeStation, and TradingView. They highlight recent updates to the NinjaTrader platform, specifically the addition of a currency matrix feature that shows average and high values to help gauge currency strength. This matrix functions similarly to a currency strength indicator, providing benchmarks for overbought and oversold conditions, helping traders understand key levels and extremes in currency movements.

30:19

The speaker explains the integration of the currency matrix indicators into market analyzers and demonstrates how isolating a single currency, like the euro, reveals strong buying activity. However, this strength is not uniformly reflected across all euro pairs, indicating that the flow of buying or selling may not be universal across pairs involving the dollar. This highlights the importance of understanding individual pair dynamics rather than assuming all pairs move in sync.

31:17

The analysis reveals that moves in pairs like EUR/USD are driven more by the strength of the euro rather than weakness of the dollar. This emphasizes the need to identify the actual driver behind price movements to avoid trading against the broader market sentiment. The speaker advises traders to recognize when local fundamental news causes currency moves that may contradict overall market trends, which is a common occurrence in trading.

32:21

The currency matrix is described as a scalping tool that focuses on short-term price action, typically over seven bars by default, contrasting with the currency array which uses a much longer look-back period for a broader perspective. The speaker compares this to their trends indicator and trend monitor, where one reacts quickly to price changes and the other provides a longer-term view. Both indicators complement each other by covering different time horizons. The segment ends with a reference to a recent sharp move in the cable (GBP/USD) currency pair before the market open.

34:00

Market open volatility and index overview

34:29

The speaker explains how market makers profit from volatility at key times such as market open, crossover sessions, and rollovers, particularly noting the extreme volatility at the 10 pm UK rollover. They highlight how tight stop losses often get triggered during these volatile periods, illustrating this with recent price action in various indices including the pound, yen, dollar, and euro.

35:36

The discussion focuses on currency moves around the London open, with the dollar selling off then showing mild buying and the euro showing strong buying strength. The speaker contrasts the euro-dollar move, which is moderate due to both currencies rising, with stronger moves seen in pairs like cable and euro-pound where one currency is falling sharply while the other rises.

36:32

An update is given on a small trading account started earlier in the year, which has grown to about $1,448. The account trades currency baskets, emphasizing the importance of closing all trades simultaneously rather than cherry-picking winners. The speaker shares their personal experience with multiple pairs, noting some were profitable while others, like cable, were not.

37:33

The speaker explains the emotional challenge of trading baskets and stresses the importance of consistency and finding a method that suits the trader, whether scaling in or out. They describe their preference for scaling in based on historical positive signals, highlighting the need for confidence in building positions and making exit decisions.

39:08

The basket trades were held over several days, demonstrating a slower trading approach rather than intraday scalping. The speaker shows how it is possible to make money with a small account using simple, straightforward tactics and risk management while trading micro lots. They emphasize the importance of finding comfortable timeframes and using indicators like volume price analysis to support trading decisions.

40:28

The speaker introduces a cryptocurrency strength indicator and a radar panel for TradingView, showing strong euro buying and volatility in cable and euro-aussie pairs. They explain why euro-dollar is not a strong trade currently as both currencies move in the same direction, likening it to two trains traveling parallel, resulting in less pronounced trends.

42:21

The euro-aussie pair is highlighted due to the aussie being heavily overbought and now rolling over, while the euro continues to rise strongly. The speaker discusses the importance of considering different timeframes, whether scalping short-term or trading longer-term, to identify potential reversals and opportunities to capture pips on rollovers.

43:16

Attention turns to using Renko charts and key support levels to analyze the eurozone market. The speaker notes that despite approaching a strong S3 level on the hourly and daily charts, price has moved through it before, giving confidence in continued strength. They stress the importance of adapting exit strategies based on individual trading timeframes rather than fixed profit targets.

44:53

The speaker critiques the use of fixed risk-reward ratios, arguing that rigid targets can cause premature exits and emotional decision-making. Instead, they advocate for letting the chart and price action guide exits, as levels can vary. They recall that short-term traders historically held positions for very small moves, emphasizing the influence of position size and the importance of using chart levels to inform trade management.

46:50

The discussion focuses on the significance of volume and precise price levels, such as those ending in .00 or .05, which often act as strong support or resistance. The speaker points out that price action may pause or reverse at these levels, referencing recent euro and aussie moves on 5-minute and 15-minute charts. They emphasize combining volume analysis with multiple timeframes to better interpret price behavior and potential turning points.

49:56

If the price breaks through the 15-minute volume point of control, the next key level is the R3 camarilla level, which historically provides significant trading opportunities. The speaker notes that upward moves can be slow and labored, with potential for secondary trends and reversals, making volume price analysis (VPA) crucial to validate strength or weakness in the move.

51:39

The speaker explains the importance of using multiple timeframes for trade management, highlighting how narrow candles with high volume on shorter timeframes can indicate price holding up. They recommend using Renko charts for entry and holding positions, but considering time-based charts for exit decisions. The integration of price action, volume, and support/resistance levels is emphasized for effective trading.

52:15

The conversation concludes with reflections on price behavior across various euro pairs and the typical laborious nature of price advances versus sharper declines. The speaker underscores the value of volume price analysis and tailored indicators to support methodology, reinforcing that all trading begins with price action, volume, and well-defined support and resistance levels.

53:00

Trading program overview and funded accounts

53:23

The speaker explains the importance of caution when sharing trading entries due to regulatory constraints. Instead, they encourage viewers to analyze price action independently to understand market reversals and develop consistent, profitable trading skills.

54:36

Using live charts, the speaker illustrates how not all currency pairs offer ideal trading opportunities at the same time. They highlight the euro-dollar and other pairs like euro-aussie and cable, emphasizing the importance of focusing on better opportunities rather than forcing trades.

55:47

The discussion shifts to forex market complexity, noting that unlike stocks, forex involves a smaller set of major currency pairs. The speaker introduces NinjaTrader 8’s new features, including FX correlation tools, and explains how correlation coefficients help traders understand relationships between pairs, which are rarely perfectly correlated.

57:13

The speaker elaborates on currency pair correlations, showing that correlations vary and that trading a basket of currencies involves understanding that pairs do not move symmetrically. They discuss market rotation effects, where buying or selling interest shifts among pairs, and demonstrate the use of a radar screen and trend monitors to track these dynamics.

58:11

Using a matrix setup on NinjaTrader, the speaker shows how traders can quickly identify market congestion or potential reversals by analyzing volatility and trend consistency across multiple currency pairs and timeframes. This tool helps traders monitor the flow and rotation of currencies effectively.

59:07

The speaker introduces the Quantum Trading education program, highlighting its comprehensive nature covering psychology, fundamentals, relational trading, technical analysis, and mechanics. They stress that success hinges on consistency, with the program designed to build traders’ confidence and teach repeatable processes.

01:00:04

Emphasizing psychological understanding as the recommended starting point, the speaker explains how tailoring trading approaches to personality improves success. The program includes multiple modules and downloadable resources aimed at helping traders develop consistency and clear targets for performance.

01:01:31

The speaker details the funded forex program, where students trade with the company’s capital up to two million dollars, starting with small accounts and progressing through levels by proving consistency. Profit-sharing incentives increase with higher levels, providing a risk-managed opportunity to apply learned skills with substantial capital.

01:03:25

Further explaining the funded program, the speaker describes scaling capital amounts and profit splits up to 60% at the highest level. They emphasize the program as a practical extension of the education, allowing traders to apply their skills with real money under company risk, reinforcing consistency and profitability.

01:04:23

The speaker discusses ongoing development of trading indicators and tools primarily on the NinjaTrader platform, offering free updates to long-term customers. They mention the availability of other platforms and highlight Anna’s analysis resources and books, including recent interest in using volume price analysis for trading cryptocurrencies.

01:06:05

The webinar concludes with thanks to attendees, wishing them a good trading day and weekend, and inviting them to join future sessions.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis