Jittery markets reflected in yen and US dollar and driven by fears if inflation

Jittery markets reflected in yen and the US dollar, and driven by fears of inflation

00:01

Introduction and session overview

00:01

The webinar begins with a welcome and acknowledgment of the diverse audience joining from different time zones. The hosts introduce the session’s agenda, combining futures, indices, and stocks into a single, streamlined presentation. The session will first cover general topics, then focus on indices, followed by a more detailed look at stocks. A trading disclaimer is also presented, emphasizing the risks involved and advising viewers to only trade with money they can afford to lose.

01:27

Basics of Volume Price Analysis (VPA)

01:27

The speaker introduces the concept of volume price analysis (VPA), which examines price charts through the relationship between price action and trading volume. Volume reflects market participation through buying and selling and can lead price movements. When price moves without volume support, it creates anomalies indicating potential traps or exhaustion points. This analysis provides insight into future market direction. The speaker also mentions companion books that illustrate VPA setups across various timeframes for indices, stocks, and forex markets.

03:13

Indicators and chart reading with VPA

03:13

The speaker explains the importance of using candles, candle patterns, and both price-based and volume-based support and resistance in Volume Price Analysis (VPA). A key tool mentioned is the volume point of control indicator, which is part of their specialized volume indicators to enhance chart analysis.

04:22

After mastering VPA concepts, traders can incorporate other standard indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and Fibonacci. However, VPA helps determine which indicators are effective based on the chart’s structure. For example, moving averages work well in trending markets but can be misleading in congestion, a nuance many traders overlook. Understanding market mood and chart shape is essential for applying these tools correctly.

05:29

The speaker highlights the use of proprietary indicators instead of standard ones, occasionally using moving averages but primarily relying on custom tools. They emphasize analyzing multiple time frames to better assess trades and mention that this approach will be discussed in more detail later.

06:04

Market sentiment and index analysis

06:04

The speaker reviews specific stocks and indices using multiple platforms including Ninja, MT4, TradingView, and Investing.com to gauge overall market sentiment. The US Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are slightly up, indicating a quiet market day without strong movements. The Nasdaq daily chart reveals a narrow, directionless range resembling a ‘washing line,’ highlighting uncertainty about whether it will fall or attempt to reach all-time highs.

07:48

The narrow and choppy price action makes day trading challenging, with limited opportunities for significant gains. The speaker contrasts this with steadier trending markets where volume analysis helps identify whether pullbacks are reversals or pauses before continuation. Currently, the market is in a narrow congestion phase, reflecting heightened uncertainty. The speaker introduces a chart of the YM to provide further educational insight into this market behavior.

08:50

Inflation and economic uncertainty

08:50

The segment discusses the current uncertainty around inflation, questioning whether it truly exists and how it is measured. Central banks acknowledge rising prices but claim inflation is transitory and exclude everyday expenses like food and commodities in their metrics. Commodities such as soybeans, wheat, and oil have been increasing in price, impacting daily living costs. This rise is partly driven by investors seeking returns in commodities amid a low interest rate environment.

10:01

Commodity prices are rising because investors are moving towards riskier assets in search of better returns due to low interest rates. The discussion shifts to wages, which are another key driver of inflation. As prices rise, people demand higher wages for living expenses. However, despite some wage increases, many remain unemployed due to the pandemic’s aftereffects, limiting employers’ need to raise wages significantly.

11:11

Wage pressures are balanced by unemployment, which limits wage growth since employers can find workers willing to accept lower pay. This dynamic could lead to deflation despite rising prices, a counterintuitive concept. The inflation narrative may be overemphasized according to some commentators, and other factors like the velocity of money need consideration.

12:25

The velocity of money, or how quickly money circulates in the economy, influences inflation. If money circulation slows and demand drops, producers may lower prices, potentially causing deflation. This aspect of inflation is less discussed but important. The ongoing inflation debate adds uncertainty to markets, complicating investment decisions as markets approach all-time highs.

13:36

Market uncertainty is high as investors struggle with questions about whether markets are at their peak. This makes investing challenging, while traders focus on capturing opportunities regardless of broader market concerns.

14:13

Multi-timeframe trading and chart setups

14:13

The speaker explains their trading setup using multiple chart types on MT4 to analyze the Dow futures, including daily, hourly, 15-minute, 5-minute, and Renko charts. They emphasize the importance of multiple time frames and Renko charts, which are non-time-based and show price action based on market movement rather than time. The analysis involves looking at price action, volume, and support and resistance levels, particularly using the Camarilla pivot points with the third level being a key reversal area.

15:25

The daily chart indicates that the Dow has been trending but recently moved sideways after breaking volume point control, with declining volume and a wick on yesterday’s candle signaling weakness. The current market bias appears bearish, supported by a doji candle that reflects indecision. To find trading opportunities, the speaker suggests examining faster time frames for potential entries amid choppy price action aligning with daily chart indecision.

16:36

Price action is described as choppy and indecisive, reflecting uncertainty and market hesitation. The speaker highlights the potential for a move from the R3 resistance level, noting a positive correlation between the trend dot and trend monitor indicators as a bullish signal. The hourly and five-minute charts show typical volatility with mixed trends and consolidation, culminating in a reversal near the volume point of control, suggesting a potentially good entry point on the Renko chart.

17:46

The open session shows settling price action before direction is established, with the Renko chart aiding in filtering out volatility and identifying buying support on the Dow futures. Despite some volume coming in, the pullback candles lack strength to reverse the primary downtrend. The speaker points to the likely target price area near the open, where both price and volume support exist, indicating a continuation of the downward move.

19:28

The speaker advocates using the Renko chart primarily for trade entries due to its ability to smooth volatility, while relying on time-based charts for exit decisions. The focus remains on the YM futures, representing the Dow, which is limited by its composition of only 30 stocks and may not fully reflect broader market conditions. The speaker plans to shift focus to analyzing the Russell 2000 index to gain deeper insights into market sentiment and underlying risk.

20:46

The Russell 2000 index is highlighted as an underutilized but valuable tool for understanding market sentiment beyond the commonly followed Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P indices. The speaker intends to explore the Russell 2000 for better insight into market dynamics and risk. After handing over to a colleague named David, they plan to discuss stock selection strategies, emphasizing market liquidity and introducing a methodology using free resources like Finviz and MarketBeat to screen stocks effectively.

23:16

Index performance and market volatility

23:16

The discussion begins with an overview of various currency indices, focusing particularly on the yen and dollar indices as they are most relevant to market movements. The market is described as fragile and indecisive, with the yen index spiking and causing downward pressure on stock indices. The dollar showed strength in the morning, retreated in the afternoon, and is now attempting a recovery. These currency movements are negatively impacting intraday stock indices.

24:17

Attention shifts to the stock market volatility index (VIX), currently trading around 19.5, which remains elevated compared to previous years when it dipped below 10. The presenter introduces the Tradestation platform integrated with Interactive Brokers, highlighting its real-time charting, trading capabilities, and the radar screen that links symbols and time intervals. This setup provides comprehensive market data and trading tools all in one interface.

25:21

The presenter explains the use of multiple radar screens showing volatility triggers, trend indicators, and trend monitors across various time frames from intraday to monthly. Current market trends are bearish with a recent weak rally that faded due to declining volume. There is some buying interest signaling a potential short-term bounce. Real executed order flow is monitored through the time and sales window, focusing on large block trades rather than small noise trades, to gauge market reactions and pressure.

27:16

Large executed orders are highlighted as key indicators of market pressure, with real-time reactions analyzed. Despite a block of 147 contracts traded, the market remains fragile with limited response. The presenter emphasizes distinguishing real executed orders from pending or spoofed orders. A significant volatility candle was observed recently, signaling possible market movement. The analysis uses multiple time frames to track volatility triggers and market congestion or reversal points, while noting the yen continues to climb slowly.

29:22

The trader describes how the current five-minute candle shows possible congestion or reversal with volume-based signals. The trading workspace is praised for its comprehensive real-time capabilities, allowing analysis across multiple time frames and indicators. The presenter switches focus to major stock indices (YM, NQ, ES) and their daily charts, highlighting nervousness and indecision with narrow trading ranges and minor resistance levels forming, suggesting potential market weakness.

30:56

The daily charts reveal failed rallies with reasonable volume but lack of follow-through, indicating weakness. The presenter points to classic signs of market topping with high-volume selloffs following attempts to rally. Current price action is sideways to slightly downward, with strong volume and price support levels noted. However, breaking below these support levels could lead to sharp declines due to low volume areas beneath, making the market vulnerable to rapid moves.

33:14

Intraday analysis focuses on volume point of control (VPOC) areas acting as both resistance and support. The market is channeling around this fulcrum point, creating clear zones for potential trend development. The presenter emphasizes the importance of waiting patiently for breaks from congestion phases, confirmed by volume, to trade effectively. This approach offers defined stop-loss levels and natural protection from price and volume-based support and resistance clusters, making it a reliable trading tactic.

36:02

Continuing on the trading strategy, the presenter discusses setting stop losses above strong volume and price clusters, which act as protective walls against adverse moves. Patience is key for this method, and while it may not suit high-frequency traders, it is effective for those willing to wait for clear setups. The market currently shows weak rally attempts with little upside momentum. The yen index is also closely monitored, recently jumping higher on its five-minute chart, approaching a significant resistance level that could trigger further buying if breached.

38:35

Commodities and stock market insights

38:35

The discussion begins with commodities, focusing on oil which is breaking out above key levels around $65-$66 a barrel and reaching $68.82, supported by strong volume. Gold is also bullish, having surpassed the $1900 level with potential to rise further depending on inflation trends. Inflation is highlighted as a key driver, influenced by rising shipping costs indicated by the Baltic Dry Index, affecting prices across commodities and food transportation.

40:37

Soft commodities like soybeans, corn, and wheat have recently seen a sell-off but are reverting to a bullish uptrend. Despite some pullbacks, the overall trend in both soft and base commodities remains strongly upward, reflecting broad commodity price increases.

41:06

Attention shifts to stocks, focusing on a company (COG) undergoing a 50/50 merger, which triggered high volume and volatility. The recent price action shows a reduction in selling pressure within a trading range, signaling a possible upcoming rally. Volume-price analysis indicates that the heavy selling phase is subsiding, suggesting accumulation and potential for price gains.

42:22

The stock’s accumulation phase is characterized by market makers absorbing selling volume, forming a price pattern resembling a classic ‘saucer’ shape. This pattern reflects a bottoming process after heavy selling, indicating a potential beginning of an upward price campaign as buying interest increases.

43:53

The accumulation and absorption of selling pressure by market makers is likened to an oil tanker coasting on momentum, requiring time to fully absorb the previous heavy selling—similar to repeatedly mopping up a spill. This process suggests a gradual transition toward a price rally. The segment concludes by noting the yen’s significant jump and mentions where to find related market indicators and platforms at quantumtrading.com.

45:48

Trading platforms and education program

45:48

The Tradestation platform has been launched with two versions: Tradestation 9.5 using Interactive Brokers for live feeds, and Tradestation 10 with Tradestation Securities, which includes the powerful RadarScreen tool. Customers can transfer their indicators across different platforms, such as MT4, TradingView, Tradestation, and NinjaTrader, at no extra charge. When upgrading packages, users receive credit for their existing indicators, ensuring they never lose their initial investment. Currently, the full Tradestation package is priced at $677, with plans to increase prices as more indicators are developed, making now a good time to invest.

47:17

The Complete Forex Trading Program offers a comprehensive education covering trading psychology, fundamental and relational analysis, and how markets interrelate in terms of risk and asset classes like bonds and commodities. It includes a deep dive into technical analysis with Volume Price Analysis (VPA) principles and application, teaching traders to distinguish between trend reversals and pullbacks to avoid premature trade exits. The program features 200-300 hours of video content, VPA chart examples, indicator usage, webinars, and a resource library. Additionally, a new funded forex program is available exclusively to students, providing an opportunity to trade with company capital and scale accounts significantly after meeting consistency targets.

49:18

The funded forex program allows students to trade with evaluation accounts starting at $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. Upon meeting achievable consistency targets, the account size is multiplied by four and can subsequently double multiple times, potentially reaching trading accounts of one to two million dollars. This program involves a one-time fee and carries no financial risk to the trader. It complements the educational offering by providing a practical pathway to managing larger funds based on demonstrated trading ability.

50:51

All trading indicators are available at quantumtrading.com across various platforms including MT4, NinjaTrader 7 and 8, TradingView, and Tradestation. Customers can move indicators between platforms without charge and receive credits when upgrading packages, protecting their initial investment. The full package grants access to all current and future indicators free of charge. The Complete Forex Trading Program covers extensive modules on market psychology, fundamental and relational analysis of asset correlations, and advanced technical analysis using VPA. It teaches traders to identify true trend reversals versus pullbacks, helping to avoid premature trade exits. The program includes hundreds of hours of video content, chart examples, webinars, and resources, supported by the addition of the funded trading program for qualified students.

54:21

QTE funded forex program details

54:21

The forex program is exclusively available to students, offering them the chance to trade using the program’s capital rather than their own, making it a no-risk opportunity. Students can start with an evaluation account ranging from $5,000 to $15,000. Upon meeting achievable consistency targets, their account size is multiplied fourfold, and then doubled repeatedly, allowing them to quickly manage accounts worth up to one or two million dollars. There is a one-time fee to join, but no further costs, and participation is entirely optional. The program aims to help students leverage their knowledge and prove their trading ability on large funds. The video concludes by thanking viewers and indicating more content will follow.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis