Learn how to trade oil using multiple time frames.
Oil is one of the key commodities for forex traders, and as crude oil slumped in price, this was reflected in the forex markets and the Canadian dollar.
00:15
Introduction and oil market overview
00:15
The speaker welcomes viewers warmly despite the weather and mentions watering the garden. They acknowledge some technical issues from earlier and assure the audience that questions can be asked in the chat. The session will focus on oil, specifically the WTI contract, and the speaker prepares to discuss its relationship to the CAD/yen currency pair, highlighting the influence of risk factors and major market conditions.
01:13
Multiple time frame trend monitoring
01:13
The speaker discusses trading a commodity that is currently crashing, emphasizing that trading principles are consistent regardless of the instrument or timeframe. They explain using multiple timeframes—from 2 minutes up to daily charts—to analyze trends. The trend monitor tool is highlighted as especially valuable for maintaining profitable positions, particularly when used across multiple timeframes. The speaker notes that oscillations may appear in faster timeframes first, but any significant trend reversal will propagate from the fastest to slower timeframes, with the definition of ‘slower’ depending on the chart being used.
02:44
Trend monitor signals and transitions
02:44
The trend monitor analyzes multiple time frames to identify transitional changes in trends, smoothing data across faster and slower time frames. When colors shift gradually from bright red to bright blue across these frames, it may signal the end of a trend. The example shows a consistent bearish signal from various perspectives, including volume and indicators, demonstrating the tool’s ability to provide a comprehensive trend analysis.
03:46
Tick speedometer and market participation
03:46
The speaker explains the tick speedometer, a tool integrated into their channels to measure tick activity and market participation. It was originally designed to deliver OP multix settings but is now used on the time chart to indicate the level of tick activity. Low tick activity corresponds to red phases of price action, indicating low participation and narrow spreads. As the color transitions from red to orange and then green, tick activity and market participation increase significantly. The speaker demonstrates how the tick speedometer shows when the market is in fast mode, indicating high tick activity, which is favorable for trading compared to sluggish market phases.
05:17
Price action and volume analysis
05:17
The market is currently active and lively, with notable price action observed on the 5-minute chart. A significant increase in trading activity is indicated by the tick speedometer and volume data. A particular candle shows a narrow spread with decent volume, which is unusual compared to prior selling patterns. This suggests potential buying interest entering the market, as the candle’s behavior deviates from typical selling signals. The EPA tool provides valuable insights by signaling likely upcoming market moves, helping traders anticipate changes even when price action contradicts previous trends.
06:50
Early signs of market reversal
06:50
The market on the two-minute timeframe is showing strong signs of a rapid move due to a wide spread up candle accompanied by significant volume and activity, indicating the reversal is underway. Volume data was closely monitored and adjusted to tick charts to better capture market participation. Although the latest candle shows slightly reduced volume and a narrower spread, price action and volume remain aligned, suggesting the current move might either be a full reversal or just a pause in the longer-term bearish trend. The volume price analysis (VPA) technique will help determine if the trend monitor shifts to a bullish phase or reverts back.
08:11
Volume price analysis for trend confirmation
08:11
The segment explains how to use indicators combined with volume and price analysis to determine if a market trend is temporarily reversing or undergoing a full primary trend reversal. It highlights distinguishing between a minor pullback in a bearish trend and a transition from a bearish phase to a bullish phase.
08:42
Impact on CAD/JPY and market sentiment
08:42
The speaker explains the significant impact on the CAD/JPY currency pair, noting that it faces a ‘double whammy’ from both falling oil prices and rising risk sentiment. This combination makes CAD/JPY one of the most affected pairs in its group and potentially the strongest. The volatility is compared to that seen in GBP/JPY, which is influenced by political events like Brexit, demonstrating how risk sentiment and external factors can cause substantial price swings.
10:17
The speaker notes the importance of considering the risk sentiment impact on the yen in currency pairs and prepares to shift the focus to the VIX, a key measure of market volatility
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