Lessons for all traders in the US trading session

Lessons for all traders in the US trading session

Some great trading lessons in the US trading session and a terrific move lower on gold with the precious metal selling off hard and wiping out the gains of the last few days. As always markets generally fall faster than they rise which is one of the advantages of trading the short side of the market. And whether you’re a more experienced trader or just getting started, these are some of the lessons you need to learn quickly in order to progress as a trader.

00:11

Introduction to multiple Renko charts and time frames

00:11

The speaker explains switching to multiple Renko charts with different timeframes displayed at the bottom: 15 seconds, 30 seconds, and one minute. They describe the corresponding Renko brick sizes for each timeframe and clarify that the value 1.7 at the top indicates the brick size in terms of gold price per ounce, with each brick representing one dollar spot 70. The speaker also demonstrates refreshing the one-minute chart to see if any changes occur.

01:18

Effectiveness of non-time-based charts for momentum

01:18

The speaker explains the use of non-time-based charts, specifically Renko charts, combined with time-based volume price analysis to reveal momentum and smooth out price action noise. They highlight the effectiveness of blending these chart types for clearer trend insights. Additionally, the trend monitor and trend dots indicators are discussed, showing how they behave differently across time frames and price action, with color changes signaling market congestion and minor reversals near price pauses.

02:52

Trend dots vs trend monitor indicators explained

02:52

The explanation compares two tools for analyzing trends: the trend dots and the trend monitor. Trend dots provide a quick, close-up snapshot of the trend’s immediate movements, showing rapid changes. In contrast, the trend monitor takes a broader, more considered view, stepping back to assess the overall trend more holistically. This tool indicates when a trend is stable or likely to change in the future. The example shows how the trend monitor signals a possible weakening of a bearish trend and a transition toward a bullish trend, while the trend dots already reflect these changes at a more granular level.

04:18

Combining VPA analysis with Renko and time charts

04:18

The segment explains the advantages of using non-time-based charts, such as renko charts, alongside traditional time-based charts for trading analysis. It describes how renko bricks form based on price movement rather than fixed time intervals, allowing traders to observe momentum more clearly. The speed at which these bricks form depends on market activity, revealing changes in momentum that time-based charts may miss. The speaker also briefly mentions the current sideways movement in key indices including the YM, NQ, and ES, along with their daily equivalent charts.

05:50

Market overview: indices, VIX, and volatility triggers

05:50

The market showed early divergence with Enqueue rising sharply while the Dow and ES lagged and even turned negative briefly. This movement occurred around the volume point of control on the five-minute timeframe, causing congestion. The VIX is also showing volatility across multiple timeframes—1-minute, 5-minute, 10-minute, and daily—reflecting the current market uncertainty during earnings season, with large companies reporting and various risk triggers contributing to the volatility.

06:44

The VIX remains elevated in the mid-20s on the daily chart, indicating sustained market nervousness despite a recent bullish run in equities. The speaker highlights the use of TradingView as an excellent platform for accessing various indicators, including forex-specific tools like the currency matrix and heat map, which will be available soon. The platform also provides pre-market data and enhances the ability to monitor market dynamics effectively.

07:46

Despite the recent equity gains, the VIX remains high due to options market activity, where volatility is being purchased in anticipation of significant events such as the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Price action across major indices is largely sideways. Attention then shifts to gold futures, which continue to show bearish trends on the time-based charts.

08:17

Gold futures analysis and volume impact

08:17

The market shows signs of a minor rally with some buying activity indicated by a hammer pattern on the five-minute chart, but the volume remains low and the reversal lacks strength. The price appears to face resistance and is beginning to roll over again, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment. Despite attempts to climb back into a key price zone, the buying volume is too weak to sustain an upward move. A significant increase in buying volume would be necessary to reverse the current downtrend, which is not evident at this time. Meanwhile, oil prices seem to be moving in the opposite direction, adding complexity to the market outlook.

09:49

Oil market supply-demand and price outlook

09:49

The oil market is currently stagnant, driven primarily by weak supply and demand fundamentals. Prices are expected to hover just above forty dollars a barrel unless OPEC intervenes to manage supply. Past attempts to influence prices have had little effect due to concerns about global economic struggles and reduced oil demand expected to persist until 2023 or 2024. Intraday trading reflects this uncertainty with congestion around the volume point of control. Technical indicators suggest potential downside movement if key support levels, marked by strong volume and indicated by the tremontis, are broken. A sustained break below the support near 40 dollars could lead to a swift market move downward due to declining volume.

11:45

Trading support and resistance using multiple time frames

11:45

The speaker explains the importance of using multiple time frames in trading analysis, highlighting how different charts provide insights into potential support, resistance, volume, and trend changes. They observe price action moving into low volume regions and discuss how volume and price agreements confirm market conditions on shorter time frames.

12:49

The analysis moves to observing price support turning into resistance after a reversal and the expectation of rapid market movement through low volume areas. The five-minute chart reveals a strong resistance level repeatedly capping the rally, and the speaker considers potential short trade opportunities if certain support levels break.

13:45

Using the accumulation distribution indicator, the speaker identifies clusters of tested support levels with varying strength. They emphasize patience in trading, focusing on key price levels where a short trade could yield profit and anticipating potential congestion areas depending on volume driving the market lower.

14:42

Examining the ten-minute chart, the speaker notes strong long-term price support levels and volume point of control building at certain prices. They anticipate that price will move swiftly through some levels but may encounter resistance and slower movement around thicker volume wedges, impacting trading decisions.

15:42

The discussion continues on how volume and price support levels can hinder downward price progress, suggesting that breaks below key levels may not lead to smooth declines. The speaker stresses the significance of these levels in assessing the feasibility of short trades and the likelihood of market resistance.

16:07

The focus shifts to the gold chart where the price remains weak after a significant drop. The speaker notes that while some traders expect reversals and buying opportunities based on price levels or Fibonacci retracements, volume-price analysis offers a different perspective. A question about indicator development for TradingView is briefly mentioned, indicating alignment with the discussed analysis approach.

17:11

Upcoming indicator releases for TradingView platform

17:11

The speaker explains that the MT4 and MT5 versions of the package will have identical pricing at $894 for the full package, including all indicators. These indicators will closely mirror those on MT4/MT5, with support and resistance levels indicated by dashed lines for minor levels and solid lines for stronger levels, particularly where clusters appear. While not the same as NinjaTrader, the MT4/MT5 indicators will reflect similar functionality.

17:39

The MT4 and MT5 versions are expected to be available by the end of the calendar year, following the rollout of TradeStation. Those who purchase the full package now will receive future indicators free of charge, despite a planned price increase after release. This offer effectively saves buyers around $200 to $300 as a thank you for early investment.

18:09

Buyers of the full package will gain free access to all future indicators once released. The speaker emphasizes this as a gesture of appreciation, noting the planned price rise after release. Additionally, improvements will be made to existing indicators, such as Camarilla levels, which will be cleaner thanks to new line and object drawing capabilities.

18:34

The speaker discusses enhancements enabled by new drawing tools, leading to cleaner indicators like Camarilla levels. They also highlight using the 15-second chart as a fast method to learn volume price analysis (VPA), observing volatility triggers, congestion, and buying activity through volume patterns, which aids in anticipating market movements.

19:03

Using fast time frames for VPA and trend confirmation

19:03

The speaker explains that volume analysis on slower time frames is more reliable than on faster ones, but faster time frames provide early warnings of potential market changes. They highlight how shifts in volume indicators, such as changes in color from dark red to bright red, can give traders confidence to maintain their positions during slower time frames like one to three minutes. The discussion then transitions to a focus on the US 30 index, also known as the Dow Jones, with a change in presenter.

20:11

Trading strategies and chart interpretation philosophy

20:11

The speaker emphasizes the importance of allowing the chart to ‘talk to you’ rather than forcing a specific trading strategy onto it. They argue against the notion that one strategy works in any market condition, stating that charts reflect market sentiment and trader behavior. Understanding the narrative behind the chart is crucial before deciding whether to wait for a preferred setup or adapt to the current market conditions.

21:28

Once you grasp what the chart is indicating, you can either wait for your favored trading strategy to align with the chart’s condition or identify emerging opportunities like breakaway or reversal trades. The speaker prefers a multifaceted trading approach. They then analyze the current market state, noting ongoing congestion and whipsaw price action on the three-minute chart, with key price levels being respected.

22:40

The discussion continues with a focus on the three-minute chart’s resistance at a significant level, also reflected by the hourly chart’s R1 level. If this level breaks, the market may enter further congestion. The suitability of this movement depends on candle range and timeframe, with faster charts potentially offering actionable signals even within this congestion.

23:13

Congestion phases and implications for breakouts

23:13

The segment discusses the formation of doji candles, which represent market indecision rather than clear reversal signals. It explains the concept of a congestion phase in trading, characterized by volatility and wide-ranging price movements with deep candle wicks. According to Wyckoff’s second law, the longer the market remains in such a congestion phase, the stronger the eventual breakout will be due to the buildup of energy, referred to as the law of cause and effect.

24:57

The speaker notes the current price range between 28,700 and 28,806, highlighting the challenge of trading on faster time frames despite the significant range. There is a mention of unusual color transitions in the chart, signaling uncertainty and a need to wait for clearer directional signals. The segment concludes with a handover to David, who explains that ongoing whipsaw price action is linked to volatility indexes like the VIX, with no decisive moves observed on shorter time frames such as five or ten minutes.

26:11

Choosing markets and trading discipline advice

26:11

The speaker discusses the current stagnant movement in the index markets, emphasizing the importance of deciding a trading strategy. They highlight the need for traders to choose whether to focus solely on indices or diversify into other markets like metals or soft commodities. Discipline in sticking to a chosen market or strategy is crucial, as each approach has its own pros and cons. The segment concludes with a mention of where to find trading indicators on various platforms including QuantumTrading.com, NinjaTrader, TradingView, and the upcoming launch on TradeStation Global.

27:32

Quantum Trading platform indicators and educational programs

27:32

The speaker introduces a trading platform driven by Interactive Brokers, which allows users with an IB account to trade across various markets. They also mention Tradestation Securities version 10 and above, highlighting its Radar Screen feature as an excellent trading tool. A separate webinar series will cover Tradestation in more detail. Additionally, the speaker references AnaCooling.com, where all analysis and books are available in both Kindle and paperback formats. They discuss the Complete Forex Trading Program, which includes five core modules covering psychology, fundamentals, relational and technical analysis, volume price analysis, trading mechanics, and account management. The program also offers numerous VPA chart examples, indicator usage, webinars, and a large library of resources with over 440 lessons and around 200 to 250 videos. This extensive program took nearly two years to develop and aims to provide comprehensive knowledge to trade forex markets confidently.

29:34

The speaker wraps up by thanking the guest Dee and announcing the schedule for upcoming forex sessions and a Tradestation webinar. They encourage viewers to join the mailing list at AnaCooling.com for automatic updates. Market commentary mentions the VIX moving sideways with expectations of significant downward moves in equities, possibly starting tomorrow and continuing towards October 21st. The speaker predicts a sizable correction on the horizon, primarily to the downside. They conclude by thanking the audience and signing off.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis