Market sentiment driving aud/jpy higher

Market sentiment is driving aud/jpy higher

Positive market sentiment reflected in the yen pairs, particularly the aud/jpy which continued higher in the London open following a surge higher in Asia/Pac session.

00:14

Setting up multiple timeframes on TradingView

00:14

The speaker confirms the audio is working and introduces the setup for the session. They mention using multiple timeframes for analysis, including the 15-second, three-minute, and four-minute charts, focusing on intraday trading strategies with data displayed on TradingView.

00:41

Expecting reversals and volatility at UK market open

00:41

The speaker adjusts the chart to a five-minute view and notes other available timeframes such as 10, 30 minutes, and daily. At 8:01 UK time, the UK and forex markets are opening following a three-day holiday. They anticipate market reversals, pullbacks, and volatility in the next 5 to 10 minutes as the market settles. This is observed on the 15-second chart showing increased volatility and price action patterns.

01:19

Volume Price Analysis (VPA) and bullish trend overview

01:19

The speaker discusses trading volume patterns around the London market open, noting an expected increase in volume. They reference a 15-minute chart on TradingView, highlighting a very bullish trend in the Yen. The sentiment remains strong on a slightly slower timeframe, supported by a trend monitor that shows a transitional phase but maintains a bullish trend without turning negative. The speaker points out interesting price action occurring overnight around 3 AM.

02:20

Distinguishing primary trend reversals from pullbacks

02:20

The segment discusses market volatility around 6 o’clock due to high trading volume, highlighting a rally followed by some weakness. It explains the importance of analyzing price and volume trends to distinguish between a full reversal (primary bullish to bearish) and a minor pullback within secondary or tertiary trends. The concept is illustrated using volume price analysis (VPA), showing how a primary upward trend can briefly reverse before resuming. The speaker emphasizes the power of VPA in trading education and its role in overcoming common trading challenges.

03:34

Challenges of staying in trends to maximize profits

03:34

The biggest challenge in trading is staying in a trend long enough to maximize profits. Frequent small losses combined with small profits often cause a trading account to stagnate or decline. Progress requires offsetting small losses with larger profitable trades, which means holding onto trends despite natural instincts. Traders often close out early due to fear of losing their gains, an emotional response that harms many. Success depends on distinguishing between primary trend reversals and pullbacks, enabling traders to remain in the trend effectively. Tools like the Trend Monster and volume price analysis help in making these decisions.

05:09

Using VPA to identify trend transitions and traps

05:09

The speaker discusses various trading signals such as buy, sell, and trap moves, emphasizing the importance of understanding volume price analysis when transitioning between primary and secondary market phases. They mention detailed explanations available in their Forex program. Additionally, they highlight recent upgrades in TradingView, noting plans to port more indicators to the platform after completing work on TradeStation. They also inform that TradingView now supports trading through brokerage accounts like OANDA, TradeStation, Gemini, and FXCM by linking them directly to the platform.

06:01

TradingView platform features and brokerage integration

06:01

The speaker describes an excellent trading platform rich with features and notes a current pause point in the market as expected. They shift focus to US market indices on a 5-minute timeframe, observing sentiment indicators across the YM, NQ, and ES markets, along with daily data.

06:29

Despite it being daytime in the UK and early hours in the US, the US markets show clear positive sentiment intraday. This outlook surprises some traders as the US market activity provides valuable sentiment signals for Forex trading in the UK, even when most US traders are inactive.

07:01

The longer-term trend in US markets remains bullish with trading occurring near the volume point of control, indicating potential congestion. This is reflected in the forex market, specifically the Aussie Yen, where a pause is observed as traders await further market direction.

07:25

Current currency strength and yen pair analysis

07:25

The speaker discusses current market sentiment, noting it remains very bullish despite a recent pause. They focus on currency movements, highlighting strong yen selling across various pairs, including the pound, Aussie yen, and New Zealand yen, especially on faster timeframes. The speaker mentions being spoiled for choice when deciding which currency pair to trade and references multiple CSI indicators to analyze these movements.

08:30

The discussion shifts to the strength of certain yen pairs, emphasizing strong buying in the Aussie yen and New Zealand yen, but little movement in the euro yen or pound yen. Local market drivers and time zones influence these trends, with the London open affecting activity. The speaker suggests the pound yen could be a better trading option as it has not yet moved significantly and may catch up. They also explain how trading platforms like M25 and NinjaTrader are used to monitor these pairs and the potential for rotation following strong moves.

10:26

Currency strength indicators and market momentum

10:26

The segment explains how currency strength indicators reveal which currency pairs to consider based on their strong upward or downward momentum. It highlights that currencies moving in lockstep, such as the yen, dollar, euro, and Swiss franc, show little momentum against each other, likened to two trains running parallel with minimal speed difference. True momentum derives from divergence between currencies, which creates trading opportunities.

11:46

Further analysis shows that yen-related pairs and the Canadian dollar are moving similarly, offering limited trading potential against each other. However, pairs like the Canadian dollar versus the pound or Australian dollar show divergence and strong buying, making them more attractive. The segment also notes that currencies like the Swiss franc and the Dalian index are languishing due to lack of strong buying or selling pressure.

12:47

This part focuses on currency indices on platforms like Mt4 and NinjaTrader, showing strong buying in the pound and strong selling in the dollar and yen. The pound is rising sharply, while the dollar and yen are declining, indicating several strong trending pairs. The speaker emphasizes the importance of examining price action, sentiment, and strength indicators to identify the best pairs to trade.

13:46

The final segment discusses integrating multiple tools such as price action, the currency matrix, and sentiment indicators to confirm trends and trading opportunities. The speaker illustrates this with the developing bullish trend in the Australian dollar versus yen pair, reinforcing the value of continuous analysis across different indicators to make informed trading decisions.

14:14

Price action and volume patterns supporting trend continuation

14:14

The speaker analyzes a 30-minute trading chart featuring a doji candle indicating market indecision and a likely pullback or congestion phase. Despite a downspread candle, volume diminishes, and support begins appearing with buying activity supporting the price. The trend monitor remains stable, showing no signs of weakening, suggesting the trend is continuing upward. The focus is on holding positions during a trend to maximize gains.

15:15

The discussion emphasizes that volume price analysis (VPA) applies across all timeframes, from seconds to days. The speaker highlights rising volume during the European market open, with strong candles and minor indecision as London trading begins. Volume is initially switched off due to data overload but then enabled, revealing increasing volume that supports the ongoing upward trend. A candle closing with high volume and a wide spread signals trend continuation.

16:11

Volume-based resistance and market congestion zones

16:11

The segment discusses market volume dynamics, highlighting a move into low volume regions beyond the volume point of control, which is not static but shifts over time. Initially, there was a congestion phase with strong support and resistance, narrow spreads, and falling volume, indicating stable price action within a channel. As the market moves higher, volume diminishes, signaling minimal resistance ahead, which is favorable for price increases. Volume is explained as a form of resistance similar to price resistance, where heavy volume areas cause congestion and light volume areas allow rapid price movement. Overall, the current low volume suggests the market can move upwards quickly without significant obstacles.

18:04

VIX trends and index congestion analysis

18:04

The speaker reviews the VIX chart on TradingView, noting it is on a downward trend across multiple timeframes from one minute to daily. The daily chart shows sluggish movement lower, which is expected. The trend monitors indicate a slight decrease of 0.3 on the day.

18:35

Attention shifts to the indices, which are currently in congestion without clear follow-through. For a long trade on Aussie Yen, the speaker emphasizes the importance of breaking away from the congestion with strong volume and moving away from the volume point of control.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis