Markets exhausted after extraordinary rally on COVID news
The markets took a breather yesterday following the extraordinary rally on the news of a possible vaccine and it was no surprise to see many congest, with indices flat and indeed the NQ emini reversing and weakening. Gold on the other hand was attempting to recover from a huge sell-off along with silver whilst the yen currency matrix took a breather. All in all a perfect storm in a positive way and signaling the importance of relational analysis.
00:01
Trading Disclaimer and VPA Methodology Overview
00:01
The speaker issues a disclaimer emphasizing the risks involved in trading and advises viewers not to use money they cannot afford to lose. The session will focus on market analysis through volume price analysis, a methodology developed and used by the speaker and David, her husband, for nearly 20 years. The fundamental principles of this methodology are outlined elsewhere.
00:34
Impact of VPA on Trading Profitability
00:34
The speaker discusses their main book, ‘The Complete Guide,’ which has received over five hundred five-star reviews on Amazon. They highlight receiving numerous emails from traders and investors worldwide expressing how the book’s methodology has significantly improved their trading profitability and changed their perspective on analyzing charts, particularly focusing on price analysis.
01:04
Volume Confirms Validity of Price Action
01:04
The speaker discusses the importance of analyzing trading volume to confirm price movements. Volume reflects market participation and activity, which helps validate whether price action is genuine or not. The speaker hints at a significant market event from the previous day, emphasizing the relevance of volume analysis especially during strong upward market trends.
01:39
Using VPA to Join Existing Market Moves
01:39
The speaker explains that their methodology is unique in providing a reliable way to join or rejoin a market move already in progress. They discuss volume price analysis, price action, and volume concepts, referencing a companion book with charts that includes over 200 worked examples, primarily focused on stocks.
02:21
VPA Applied Across Markets and Timeframes
02:21
The speaker discusses various VPA (Volume Price Analysis) resources available for different markets including forex and commodities, emphasizing that VPA is a foundational methodology. It is combined with other indicators and analyzed across multiple time frames to better understand market movements. The importance of volume in distinguishing between a counter-trend move, correction, or a full reversal is highlighted, with VPA also incorporating candlestick patterns to enhance analysis.
03:36
Support and Resistance in VPA Analysis
03:36
This segment explains the importance of support and resistance levels in trading analysis. Support and resistance help determine whether price movements are likely to continue or reverse, based on significant price points or volume. Some levels are stronger than others due to various factors, and breaking through these levels often requires substantial volume. Additionally, indicators—both proprietary and standard—are used to highlight potential trends and provide confirmation in conjunction with support and resistance analysis.
04:48
Indicators as Secondary Tools in VPA
04:48
The speaker explains that secondary tools, such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands, are not inferior but complement the primary VPA (Volume Price Analysis) methodology. VPA helps reveal the chart’s structure, identifying whether the market is trending, congested, volatile, or non-volatile. Understanding the chart’s structure allows traders to apply these secondary tools effectively, as each tool works best under specific market conditions.
06:07
Market Update and Divergence in Indices
06:07
The market is showing mixed movements with the US-30 index (YM) moving higher by 245 points after breaking out from congestion, while the Nasdaq is down by 160 points, indicating significant divergence between indices. The S&P futures remain largely unchanged. This varied market behavior is linked to events from the previous day, with notable price action and overnight developments influencing current trends. The speaker also mentions intending to share an article related to these market dynamics.
07:23
Market Reaction to Election and Vaccine News
07:23
The market reacted positively to the anticipated new U.S. president, despite the official confirmation still pending. Early trading showed gains of 400 to 500 points. Additionally, news of a potential vaccine was seen as very promising, boosting market confidence significantly. However, the vaccine announcement came with caveats—it was based on a press release without peer review and had practical challenges such as requiring special temperature storage. Despite these uncertainties, the Dow surged approximately 1700 points in response.
08:31
Historic Market Rally and Trading Challenges
08:31
The video discusses a significant post-election market jump, the largest since 1900, amounting to around a four percent move. This is notable as fund managers typically consider a four percent annual return very successful. Despite the strong upward movement, many traders struggled to place trades due to overwhelmed brokers. The speaker emphasizes the challenge of deciding when to enter such a rapidly moving market and suggests that understanding Volume Price Analysis (VPA) concepts across multiple time frames can help traders make informed decisions during such volatile periods.
09:45
Using VPA for Entry and Multiple Time Frames
09:45
The speaker emphasizes the importance of analyzing multiple time frames for successful trading entries, re-entries, or adding to positions, alongside understanding support and resistance levels. Additionally, they recommend exploring the works of George Freeman, an expert in geopolitical matters, who offers both paid and free insightful content.
10:27
Geopolitical Context Affecting Markets
10:27
The speaker references an article from geopoliticalfutures.com dated November 10th, emphasizing its relevance to trading due to its analysis of the potential political outcomes, including the possibility of a Biden presidency and a Senate runoff in January. They highlight the uncertainty in the market related to these political events and note that, while foreign policy and other factors are discussed, the article provides important background for understanding market reactions. The author of the article writes in an accessible manner and is highly recommended.
12:15
Transitioning from geopolitical context to market analysis, the speaker shifts focus to reviewing market data using a five-minute chart. They mention typical market volatility at opening times and indicate readiness to analyze the current trading situation.
12:14
Market Volatility and Volume Point of Control
12:14
The segment explains the concept of the volume point of control, a key price level where the market shows agreement and no clear directional bias. It describes volatile market behavior with sharp moves up and down, highlighting the presence of many candles with long wicks indicating uncertainty. The price action pushes back to the volume point of control multiple times, with an unusual move higher on low volume triggering a volatility indicator, showing that the price has moved outside the average true range before retreating back within expected levels. The market is characterized as choppy and in a state of indecision requiring further movement to establish direction.
13:18
Volatility Indicator and Market Direction
13:18
The speaker discusses the importance of having clear trading directions within a specific timeframe and anticipates how the market might behave after a significant event the previous day. They compare the current market mood to the day after a big party, with traders reflecting on the prior day’s actions. The speaker also shares their personal approach to monitoring the market, using different time frames and a renko chart to get a cleaner view of price action by removing market noise and choppiness.
14:29
Renko Charts and Momentum Analysis
14:29
The speaker explains how the indicator provides a sense of market momentum, highlighting periods of congestion and pullbacks. They emphasize the importance of understanding support and resistance levels as reflected on time charts. The indicator discussed is the accumulation and distribution indicator from NinjaTrader, supplemented by Camarilla levels for additional analysis.
15:01
Camarilla Levels and Support/Resistance
15:01
The speaker discusses the use of Renko charts and Camarilla levels in trading, highlighting their importance for identifying market targets and reversal points. They mention resources available on the Quantum Trading website and YouTube channel for further learning, including videos tailored to Tradestation indicators. The focus then shifts to the time chart, emphasizing the significance of volatility candles, where the high and low points serve as key support and resistance levels. A conservative trading approach is recommended, waiting for price to break above or below the candle extremes to avoid choppy market conditions.
16:24
Volatility Candle Support and Resistance
16:24
The speaker discusses the importance of price action breaking key support and resistance levels supported by volume to confirm a firm market direction. They caution against moves lacking participation, as such moves are unlikely to sustain. The speaker mentions different trading styles, including those who prefer very short time frames like the seconds chart. They emphasize the need for patience and note the versatility of the volatility indicator, which can also be used as an exit signal. Finally, they reference observing forex trades, highlighting a promising opportunity on the Pound/New Zealand dollar pair.
17:30
Currency Strength and Market Sentiment
17:30
The speaker discusses the currency strength indicator, focusing on the pound and its pairs. They note that the pound is being bought, while New Zealand and Australian dollars are being sold, which provides insight into current market sentiment. The market appears cautious, reconsidering or being more circumspect about previous conclusions from yesterday.
18:03
Divergence Between Tech and Value Stocks
18:03
The discussion focuses on the market divergence between technology stocks and value stocks like those in the Dow. Despite the Dow rising, tech stocks are selling off as safe havens such as the yen, treasuries, and gold are being sold off amid market euphoria about economic recovery. The speaker highlights that this enthusiasm led investors to favor risk assets. Additionally, the cruise company Carnival is mentioned as attempting to raise more capital after suffering significant losses during the pandemic, illustrating the high costs of keeping cruise liners docked and inactive. The segment concludes by turning attention back to market charts to analyze ongoing trends.
19:55
VPA Principles for Trend Reentry
19:55
The segment discusses the principles of volume price analysis (VPA), focusing on primary and secondary trends, including pullbacks and corrections, and the use of support and resistance (SNR) to assist analysis. Additionally, there is an announcement about a new quantum trading education site dedicated to forex, which offers a deep dive into forex trading using VPA and the work of Richard Wyckoff.
20:41
Quantum Trading Forex Education Program
20:41
The speaker discusses the availability of extensive information on primary and secondary market trends within the forex program. This program not only covers spot forex markets but also applies to futures trading. Students have the opportunity to trade funded accounts starting at five units, meaning they can trade without risking their own money.
21:19
Funded Trading Accounts and Risk Management
21:19
The speaker explains a trading program where participants start with a small account and can scale up to two million dollars without risking their own money, as the program assumes all risk. This setup helps traders get accustomed to managing large accounts and trading discipline through strict risk and money management rules. It provides a pathway into proprietary trading and can build a track record attractive to other companies.
23:08
The program allows trading alongside personal accounts and is particularly advantageous for aspiring traders. While the focus is on spot forex, the volume price analysis principles taught are applicable across all markets. The speaker invites questions and mentions that others, like David, are also available to discuss the program.
23:12
VPA Principles Applicable Across Markets
23:12
The speaker explains that while the content is specific to forex, the core modules—fundamental analysis, relational model, psychology, and trading mechanics—apply broadly to other markets and instruments. They then monitor the YM market, noting a breakout below a key level, and observe the price moving into free space past resistance (r1).
23:49
YM Market Break and Short Opportunity
23:49
The speaker notes the presence of the S1 Maya down below, suggesting a potential short opportunity on the YM. They then hand over the discussion to David.
Ready to Master Stock Trading with Volume Price Analysis?
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By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis
Ready to Master Forex Trading with Volume Price Analysis?
Join The Complete Forex Trading Program by Anna Coulling and unlock professional-level insights. Learn relational strength, spot momentum shifts, and build consistent strategies using VPA. Lifetime access, Quantum indicators, and real-market examples—transform your forex trading today!