Patience on the EUR/NZD as we wait for a reversal

Patience on the EUR/NZD as we wait for a reversal

Patience on the EUR/NZD as we wait for a reversal following the sharp move lower earlier in the forex trading session.

00:13

Euro and Euro Yen technical outlook

00:13

The speaker concludes the discussion by comparing the Eurodollar and Euro Yen pairs, noting that neither chart currently shows strong technical signals. They suggest that sentiment might have a greater impact on the Euro Yen than on the Euro Dollar, potentially influencing movements in that pair more significantly.

00:46

Euro New Zealand 10-minute chart move

00:46

The segment discusses the recent price movement of the Euro/New Zealand currency pair, highlighting a notable downward move starting from the volume point of control at 0.860 on the 10-minute chart. It emphasizes the importance of considering volume surges, particularly those that occur at the London market open, which tend to override prior price action. An unexpected volatility candle is mentioned, marked by increased volume, though still relatively low compared to earlier activity, indicating cautious interpretation of these shifts within the context of the trading session.

02:03

Volatility candles and volume analysis

02:03

The discussion focuses on analyzing candlestick patterns and market volatility. Initially, a candle triggered volatility, suggesting a possible fake or spoof move, followed by a retrace and three strong rising-volume candles indicating potential reversal. Further analysis highlights a candle with a bottom wick resembling a hammer, signaling significant buying pressure at a key price support level of 179.56. The explanation also touches on how support and resistance lines are represented in the MT4 and MT5 trading platforms.

03:13

Support and resistance levels explained

03:13

The discussion analyzes price action and volume-based support around the 79.59 level, noting attempts to push prices lower met with buyer intervention that pushed prices back up. Several candles show varying degrees of buying support, with one candle indicating high volume that might signal a pause or potential retest of lows near 79.56. The price is currently caught between two key levels that have been tested multiple times, creating a contested range. The combined price and volume action suggests a possible reversal, but further observation is needed to confirm if buyers can sustain momentum and break out of the range, based on the 10-minute chart.

05:00

30-minute chart and hammer candle signals

05:00

The speaker analyzes a 30-minute chart showing a dramatic price drop and discusses the characteristics of a hammer candle, noting that an ideal hammer has a small body with a deep wick and high volume underneath. They caution that while hammer candles and other principal candles like bullish and bearish engulfing patterns signal potential reversals, traders should not rush to act on them as they are only indicators of possible market behavior rather than guarantees.

06:10

Candle patterns as exit signals

06:10

The speaker advises that when price action shows signs of pausing, especially with high volume candles, it may be time to exit or reduce positions rather than just consider these candles as entry signals. They explain that during a move, such candles suggest the trend might pause or reverse. The principal trend is identified as the main directional move away from a congestion phase, while smaller moves against it are considered secondary trends. Traders should consider taking partial profits and observing if the principal trend resumes.

07:15

Despite increased buying interest indicated by several candles, the presence of upper wicks suggests an ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers. This uncertainty means the primary trend change may still resume, but confirmation is needed through a break of a key volume-based support level. The market is in a state of indecision as bulls and bears battle for control.

07:48

Renko chart and trend analysis

07:48

The segment discusses analyzing a Renko chart to understand price movement and trend changes. It highlights a recent move lower followed by a basing phase characterized by buying interest. The Renko chart, being price-based, doesn’t show time explicitly, but pivots indicate congestion. The trend dots have changed color but haven’t confirmed a strong upward trend, with previous attempts to move higher failing. Resistance is noted through candle wicks and a solid resistance line, suggesting selling pressure. The strategy suggested involves managing multiple contracts by taking some profits and holding one for potential re-entry, awaiting a clear breakout in either direction. A reference to the Camarilla pivot levels is made to anticipate potential stopping points for price movement.

09:30

Support targets and potential reversals

09:30

The discussion focuses on identifying a potential target for the pair moving lower, highlighting the S3 level as a key resistance point. The chart shows clear selling pressure at this resistance, which must be broken to confirm a true reversal. After a reversal, the price is expected to move back up toward the S1 level, where the original move started. The analysis includes examining reversal candles and volume indicators to understand market behavior.

10:06

Fundamental news and market sentiment

10:06

The speaker discusses analyzing support and resistance levels alongside market sentiment and fundamental news. They note that the S&P 500 has declined, entering negative territory, and describe the day as unusual with limited fundamental drivers. Important events include UK unemployment data, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment survey, ongoing G7 meetings, and Fed testimony by Jay Powell. The speaker highlights the significance of these releases for trading euro pairs and mentions plans to publish a detailed write-up on a particular trade.

11:15

Trading education program overview

11:15

The speaker discusses a notable example of price action that integrates various concepts covered earlier. They thank the audience and briefly introduce trading indicators available through multiple platforms such as TradingView, NinjaTrader, MetaTrader, and soon TradeStation. Additionally, they highlight an extensive education program hosted on quantumtradingeducation.com, consisting of around 200 videos. This program is designed to provide comprehensive knowledge and skills essential for long-term success in trading, emphasizing that it is possible to make a sustainable living in the market with the right information and techniques.

12:28

Trading psychology and market skills

12:28

The speaker explains that the technical analysis module, while demonstrated using forex, is applicable to stocks and any other charts. Fundamental news releases are tailored to forex but also affect the broader economy and stock markets. Relational analysis integrates all markets, and psychology is highlighted as the most important module, emphasizing self-awareness in trading. The session concludes with thanks and a reminder of upcoming meetings.

13:32

Contact info and session closing remarks

13:32

The speaker provides contact information for Anna and David via their email addresses and thanks the audience for attending, concluding with a farewell.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis