The bond market has never been so important!

00:00

The session begins with a welcome and an apology for the delay caused by the absence of the usual host, David. The presenter reminds viewers of the trading disclaimer, emphasizing the risks involved in forex trading and advising not to use money one cannot afford to lose. The audience is acknowledged, noting the presence of both experienced users and newcomers, with an invitation for first-time attendees to introduce themselves.

00:55

The segment introduces the forex market analysis using a methodology called volume price analysis, which examines how price action interacts with volume to determine the authenticity of chart movements. It emphasizes that price charts are influenced by various fundamental factors and market drivers. Additionally, students are taught to read charts in conjunction with fundamental news events and related markets, highlighting the importance of understanding broader market context, such as bond market commentary.

02:01

The bond market has a significant impact on forex and stock markets, influencing risk sentiment and asset movements. Students in the program learn to interpret bond market signals that affect risk-on and risk-off assets. Certain currencies, like the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar, move with market sentiment, while the Swiss franc acts as a safe haven. Despite limited coverage of bond auctions in economic calendars, major events such as the upcoming 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions are crucial. Recent market moves, including the Nasdaq’s rise, were influenced by a successful three-year Treasury auction. Understanding bond yields is essential for grasping broader market dynamics. The discussion also introduces VPA (Volume Price Analysis), which consists of five elements including volume and price, as a starting point for chart analysis.

03:44

The speaker explains the importance of identifying key market levels such as candle patterns, support, and resistance, which are crucial to traders, institutions, and market makers. These levels can be determined using price-based and volume-based methods, including various technical tools like Fibonacci retracements, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages. Understanding price action and volume at these levels helps assess whether they will hold or be breached, forming the core narrative of chart analysis.

04:47

The discussion shifts to the forex market, emphasizing the concept of flow—movements into individual currencies and pairs—and the importance of tracking these flows and levels. The speaker introduces proprietary indicators designed to measure currency flows, strength, and weakness, which are reflected in a currency rate and a multi-timeframe heat map. This heat map visually represents flow strength across currencies and pairs, providing a useful trading tool that will be demonstrated later. Viewers are encouraged to ask questions in the chat.

05:54

The speaker introduces a funded trading program for students, allowing them to trade using the program’s capital rather than their own, eliminating personal financial risk. Participants can start with accounts ranging from $5,000 to $15,000 and have the opportunity to progress to managing accounts up to $2 million. Details about the program levels and mechanics will be explained during the session.

06:27

The speaker introduces their trading dashboard, focusing on three main time frames. They mention various platforms like MT4, TradingView, and TradeStation, noting that MT4 is primarily used for analysis shared on a Facebook page. MT4 remains popular among traders despite TradingView gaining traction. The speaker highlights the benefits of MT4’s volume profile from XM and explains that having limited time frame choices can help traders maintain discipline.

08:00

The discussion continues on the importance of sticking to selected time frames to avoid confusion when trading. Traders often jump between different time frames seeking confirmation for their trades, which can lead to indecision. Examples are given with currency pairs like the Australian dollar and Swiss franc, illustrating how traders might hold onto losing positions by checking higher time frames to justify their original decisions. The speaker warns against turning trades into long-term strategic investments by overanalyzing multiple time frames.

09:49

The speaker concludes by emphasizing the usefulness of the hourly chart in showing recent and current market conditions, aiding in timely and disciplined trading decisions without falling into the trap of overcomplicating positions.

09:51

The speaker discusses the upcoming hour or two in the market, highlighting that the Canadian dollar (CAD) is showing buying interest. They emphasize the importance of being aware of a key Canadian rate decision scheduled for 1:30, which could significantly impact trading decisions. Traders are advised to consider exiting positions before the announcement and wait for market reactions to stabilize.

10:54

Attention is drawn to bond auctions later in the day and the next, specifically the 10-year auction at 6 PM and the 30-year the following day, which influence market risk sentiment. The 10-year yield is particularly important as it sets the tone for risk appetite. The bond market, previously ignored due to low interest rates and quantitative easing, has now become a major factor causing stock market rotation and volatility.

11:59

The bond market’s influence is further explained, noting its powerful impact on capital markets. The speaker reviews recent futures and stock market movements, with the Nasdaq showing significant volatility due to its composition of growth and momentum stocks. This volatility creates challenging conditions for long-term investors but opportunities for traders. The discussion then shifts back to the dollar and Canadian dollar, suggesting caution ahead of the rate decision.

13:03

The speaker expresses concern about currencies trading in narrow ranges with low volatility, which complicates trading. The current low values on their indicator suggest below-average price movement, requiring traders to work harder to capture profits. This environment makes trading more difficult as price action lacks strong directional movement.

13:34

An upgraded trading indicator now provides benchmarks to assess whether volatility values are average, low, or high. Currently, the indicator shows low movement, lacking significant divergence or strong crosses that indicate robust market activity. Despite this, some movements were noted earlier in the day, particularly involving the British pound, with further insights to be shared from volume price analysis (VPA) perspectives.

14:32

The speaker explains their MT4 setup which includes five charts: daily, hourly, 15-minute, 5-minute, and a Renko chart set at three pips. Renko charts are non-time-based and each brick represents a three-pip movement, providing a clear view of market momentum. When momentum is low, price movements slow, increasing risk due to potential unexpected events such as fundamental news or cross-market impacts. Understanding momentum through Renko charts can be advantageous for trading decisions.

16:07

The daily chart for GBP/USD (cable) shows a recent decline highlighted by a shooting star candle and subsequent strong downward candles, signaling selling pressure. This movement coincides with the strengthening of the US dollar, as observed through the dollar index on other profiles. Typically, dollar weakness aligns with strong stock markets, while dollar strength occurs during risk-off periods. The speaker notes the importance of monitoring the dollar index to understand currency pair dynamics.

17:10

The speaker discusses cyclical patterns where the US dollar tends to strengthen under Democratic administrations. Currently, there is a large number of dollar short positions held at the CFTC, potentially leading to a dollar squeeze. Market fragility and inflation concerns are also driving dollar strength. The daily chart for cable is currently indecisive, resembling a doji with narrow price ranges indicating sideways movement and lack of clear direction.

18:21

The sideways movement on the daily chart is confirmed by the five-minute chart, showing both currencies in the pair moving in the same direction without divergence, which usually signals trend strength. The speaker then shifts focus to the hourly chart where price-based levels derived from the Camarilla method are applied. These levels are valid for the week, and the price is currently testing the third resistance level, important for assessing potential price action going forward.

19:24

The speaker explains the importance of six specific indicator levels that traders should watch closely, especially when price action approaches them, as these levels often act as points of pause or reversal. Volume confirmation can indicate whether the price will resume movement. The indicator also provides messages, such as potential short positions, based on failure to break certain resistance levels like the R3. The discussion highlights the significance of daily chart levels that refresh at rollover.

20:36

Using two different time frames for levels—such as hourly and faster charts—helps identify strong confluence points where price is likely to react significantly. The speaker introduces the Volume Point of Control (VPOC), a volume-based support and resistance level represented by a yellow line, which acts like a fulcrum. The VPOC shows areas of high trading volume over time, resembling a bell curve with dense and thin volume zones, indicating important price congestion areas.

21:39

The VPOC can exert bullish or bearish pressure depending on the price position relative to it; price below the VPOC adds bearish pressure. On the five-minute chart, the speaker observes a sideways movement in the dollar and a possible decline in the pound. They note anomalous volume behavior under upward candles where volume decreases despite price moving up, signaling a lack of agreement between price and volume. Finally, the speaker introduces the Renko chart strategy, explaining that it simplifies entry and exit decisions by looking for agreement in color and brightness using tools like the trend dot and trend monitor.

23:12

The speaker explains how to use the trend dot and trend monitor indicators along with the Renko chart to decide when to take a position and stay in a trade during pullbacks. They emphasize that even if the trend dot changes color, as long as the trend monitor remains consistent, there’s no need to exit. The example shows a bullish move confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle and price carrying above the S3 level.

24:19

The discussion focuses on interpreting volume during a messy trend with many small downward candles. It highlights the importance of context, especially around session openings like the London open, where volume spikes naturally occur and must be read carefully. Using Renko charts alongside price action offers reassurance during pullbacks despite inconsistencies in volume.

25:19

The speaker demonstrates how Renko charts support staying in trades during pullbacks by showing sustained bright blue signals despite a few red dots. They stress how combining Renko with traditional price charts improves decision-making, helping traders remain in moves until there’s clearer evidence to exit.

25:53

Exit strategies are discussed using a shooting star candle near resistance (R2) as a signal to consider leaving a trade. The Renko bricks turning red and trend dots shifting provide early clues of potential reversals. Traders can choose to be conservative, waiting for full confirmation, or more aggressive by exiting when early signs appear.

27:01

Entry signals combining strong time chart candles with volume confirmation and Renko indicators are described. The speaker points out specific candle patterns like two-bar reversals and bullish engulfing candles accompanied by volume spikes near key price levels, advising cautious optimism but also readiness to wait for stronger confirmation from Renko signals.

28:07

The Renko chart’s ability to hold traders in moves during pullbacks is reinforced, especially during session crossovers like the London open. The presence or absence of volatility candles, indicated by purple arrows, influences decisions. Without volatility signals, the advice is to hold positions as Renko supports continuation despite increased volume during session starts.

29:13

The speaker analyzes a sideways price move near resistance (R3) on the hourly chart, considering whether to enter a short trade. They highlight the use of support and resistance levels (S1, S3) and volume profile (VPOC) for timing entries and targets. Waiting for breaks below key levels increases confidence in a trade’s potential success.

30:18

The segment concludes with a brief look at the dollar index’s upward trend since the Georgia Senate runoff in January, which resulted in a tied Senate and influenced market dynamics. This provides broader context linking political events to market movements.

31:00

The speaker discusses the political event giving the Democratic Party control of both houses, which triggered increased buying of the dollar starting in January. This buying activity is analyzed using candlestick patterns, including a hammer candle and a shooting star candle, indicating possible reversals. The speaker emphasizes the importance of an upcoming ten-year bond auction for determining the dollar’s direction.

32:14

The speaker answers a question about the sizing of the trading matrix and explains using three platforms simultaneously: TradingView, TradeStation, and NinjaTrader. He begins demonstrating TradeStation 9.5, preparing to show recent developments, while briefly addressing a technical issue with audio feedback.

32:57

The speaker explains the partnership between Interactive Brokers and TradeStation, allowing users to link their accounts and trade across various markets, including spot forex. They showcase currency futures with a focus on dollar-centric pairs such as the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, New Zealand dollar, and Swiss dollar. The array of currency futures highlights the central role of the US dollar as the counter currency in these trades.

33:56

The speaker describes the powerful indicators developed for TradeStation’s RadarScreen and charting platform. RadarScreen enables real-time monitoring of multiple timeframes and symbols with customizable indicators like overbought/oversold signals and volatility measures. This setup allows traders to quickly identify trading opportunities without manually searching through charts.

34:48

Demonstrating the platform’s efficiency, the speaker shows how symbol and interval linking lets traders switch between charts instantly. They highlight a scalping trade example on the three-minute chart of the British pound (cable), noting a strong rally driven by dollar selling. Longer-term charts indicate a bearish stance on the dollar and yen, with profitable trades held for months amid favorable risk sentiment in equities.

35:45

Focusing on a specific trade setup on the Globex futures contract, the speaker points out a significant high-volume candle that stands out visually. This large volume spike draws immediate attention and signals a key market move, demonstrating how volume analysis can highlight important trading opportunities across various instruments, whether futures or spot markets.

36:15

The speaker analyzes a series of three candlesticks during a bullish trend. The first candle shows agreement between price and volume, but the second candle has more than double the volume with only about two-thirds the price movement, indicating an anomaly. This suggests heavy selling activity despite the bullish trend, as the price action is compressed and does not reflect the high volume, implying market makers are selling into weakness.

37:08

The discussion continues with the third candle showing slight upward movement but with a weighted upper body, signaling cautious price action. This setup offers a low-risk trading opportunity with high confidence due to observed heavy selling. The speaker emphasizes that while reversal timing is uncertain, wide stop losses should be used to accommodate market fluctuations. The key takeaway is that volume-price analysis focuses on identifying either confirmation or anomalies to determine whether the market is buying or selling.

38:26

The segment explains how different indicators interact with price action in trading. It discusses how heavy buying and selling, resistance and support levels, and various indicators like the camarilla levels, CSI, matrix, and array contribute to market analysis. The trend dots change quickly in response to price movements, signaling potential reversals or sideways trends, while the trend monitor provides a more gradual and longer-term perspective by cycling through color phases from bright blue to bright red.

39:48

This part highlights the complementary use of trend dots and the trend monitor. Trend dots react first to price changes, signaling early reversals or congestion phases, whereas the trend monitor confirms trends more slowly, providing confidence to stay in trades. An example shows that despite some short-term bullish signals from the trend dots, the trend monitor remains in bearish mode, emphasizing the importance of using both indicators together.

40:41

The discussion shifts to analyzing the Canadian dollar on a five-minute chart, showing a volatility candle leading to congestion rather than a reversal. The volume point of control suggests limited price movement, making it a less attractive trading opportunity. The trend monitor remains bearish, demonstrating how these tools help visualize overall market sentiment and confirm trends across different currencies.

41:28

This segment describes how the US dollar’s strength is reflected in the color-coded radar screen cells, which move to red as the dollar rises. The selling of the Australian dollar corresponds with the dollar’s buying pressure. The trend monitor detects bearish sentiment on multiple timeframes, signaling a developing strong trend against the Aussie and the pound, indicating how the radar screen visually represents currency strength and weakness.

42:00

Here, the presenter explains why trends vary in strength depending on whether currency pairs move in opposition or together. Strong trends appear when two currencies move against each other, as with the Aussie and pound against the dollar. Conversely, pairs like the Canadian dollar and US dollar, which move in tandem, show weaker trends. This pattern also applies to the euro-dollar and New Zealand dollar pairs, affecting how trend strength is interpreted on different timeframes.

43:28

The final segment highlights the power of the radar screen tool, which can display up to 400 cells or over a thousand on Tradestation 10 and above. These cells act like mini charts, enabling rapid and comprehensive market analysis. The presenter demonstrates pulling up a daily chart of the US dollar on TradingView, emphasizing how such tools enhance the ability to monitor and analyze market trends efficiently.

43:59

The speaker discusses monitoring the US dollar across different timeframes—one, three, five minutes, and daily charts—highlighting a recent bearish engulfing candle signaling a potential longer-term reversal and further selling pressure on the dollar. They introduce efforts to port their currency indicators to TradingView, noting the technical challenges but confirming these tools will soon be available, matching those on MT4 and MT5 platforms.

44:54

The presenter demonstrates the currency array indicator on a five-minute chart, showing how users can toggle and filter currencies to observe market sentiment, such as heavy selling of the Swiss franc. The tool provides a clear and immediate view of currency strength and market trends, enabling traders to see which currencies are being sold or bought across different pairs.

46:00

Further explanation of the currency array reveals the strongest and weakest currency pairs, with Swiss franc pairs showing significant selling pressure. The indicator also includes signals for overbought and oversold conditions indicated by brackets and color changes, offering traders visual cues about market extremes. The currency matrix on the side complements this by summarizing sentiment across pairs.

46:53

The speaker highlights a new feature added to the currency matrix showing all-time high and low averages, which helps traders gauge how far currency pairs are from historical extremes. This provides additional context beyond simple overbought or oversold signals, giving insight into potential market moves. Examples include the New Zealand dollar being heavily oversold according to these metrics.

47:49

The currency array also reflects overbought and oversold info for currency pairs, reinforcing the usefulness of these indicators. The speaker then introduces the currency heat map, a new tool developed by their team. While they mention technical constraints that limited replicating all timeframes available on other platforms like MT4 and NinjaTrader, the heat map represents a significant enhancement to their analytical offerings.

48:54

The speaker discusses the customization capabilities of the pine script heat map, emphasizing that unlike other platforms, it allows users to configure multiple time frames according to their needs. Examples include time frames ranging from one minute to one week, or more granular intervals ideal for scalpers. This flexibility provides a clear overview of market sentiment across various cells, reducing the need to search multiple charts.

49:49

The heat map visually displays strength and weakness across currency pairs with colors migrating across cells, indicating market movement. The speaker mentions potential future integration of all-time highs and lows into the currency matrix. The heat map’s weighting system prioritizes slower time frames, making movements on longer intervals more significant, while faster time frames reflect quicker, less impactful changes.

50:51

The weighting algorithm of the heat map ensures slower time frames carry more influence than faster ones, regardless of the specific intervals used. This means that daily or weekly data will have greater significance than minute or hourly data in the overall analysis. The speaker highlights that users can create multiple heat maps with as many time frames as desired on TradingView, enhancing their market analysis.

51:53

The discussion shifts to the importance of indicators that help traders remain in profitable trades. The speaker notes that the main challenge for most traders is not market understanding or trading skill, but the ability to stay in a trade once it becomes profitable, implying that emotional or behavioral factors often cause premature exits.

52:27

The speaker explains a common trading mistake where traders exit positions too early as profits start to dwindle, causing their accounts to stagnate or decline gradually. They emphasize that trading inherently involves more small losses than wins, so traders must secure larger winning trades to offset these losses. Using tools like trend indicators and volume price analysis (VPA) can help traders stay in trades longer and better understand market movements.

54:00

The discussion continues on the importance of VPA in distinguishing between major trend reversals and minor pullbacks, a critical skill taught in detail in the forex program’s technical analysis module. The speaker highlights how VPA confirms market activity through volume signals and how this method applies universally across currency pairs. They also mention using multiple time frames and trading platforms like Ninja Trader for more comprehensive analysis.

55:00

The speaker switches to analyzing a chart on TradeStation, focusing on the volume point of control (VPOC) and its significance in price action. They highlight how congestion occurs around the VPOC, causing pauses in price movement. The example candle discussed shows weakness rather than strength, as it does not follow through upward despite proximity to the VPOC.

56:09

The discussion shifts to the Accumulation Distribution indicator, which highlights support and resistance levels based on price and volume. This indicator is consistent across platforms like NinjaTrader, TradeStation, and TradingView. The speaker explains the visual representation of these levels, noting that small clusters of tested price levels indicate weak zones, while larger clusters signify stronger support or resistance.

57:09

A notable cluster of significant support and resistance levels is identified, which has been tested multiple times and acts as a key barrier for price movement. The speaker explains that breaking through this cluster will require substantial trading volume. This level previously influenced price reversals and now serves as a potential support platform or a resistance to further downward movement.

58:09

The speaker elaborates on how volume influences price movement through key levels. Areas with low trading volume below the cluster are likely to see rapid price movement, while the high volume around the VPOC acts as a strong support or resistance, causing price to pause. Volume-based support and resistance are viewed as crucial levels, similar to price-based ones, because they reflect the concentration of orders and trading interest.

59:01

The importance of volume for predicting market behavior is emphasized. Low volume nodes allow for quick price movement due to lack of resistance, whereas high volume areas, like the VPOC, cause price to consolidate. The speaker concludes by acknowledging a chat question, indicating engagement with the audience while continuing the analysis.

01:00:00

The speaker explains the currency matrix, emphasizing that it shows currency pair rankings on individual time frames without any waiting element. The matrix reveals the relative strength of currencies, highlighting universal buying of the dollar despite some inconsistencies. The dollar-yen pair behaves differently due to its unique sentiment-driven characteristics, which are covered in detail elsewhere in the program.

01:01:05

The matrix ranks currency pairs based on their relative positioning and extremes on a given time frame, indicating whether sentiment is universal across crosses. The speaker differentiates between the matrix and the currency array, noting that the array includes a waiting element and represents a more considered view of price action over time, while the matrix reflects more immediate market movements.

01:02:07

Further clarification is given on the differences between the matrix and the currency array. The matrix reacts closely and quickly to market changes, acting as a precision tool similar to trend indicators. The currency array, however, updates more slowly and shows trend strength visually, including overbought and oversold signals, offering a broader perspective on market trends.

01:03:23

The speaker advises using the indicators in combination: starting with the CSI, then the matrix for a mid-time frame view, and finally the array for a slower, more deliberate perspective. The matrix and array differ in their responsiveness to price action, with no waiting element on either except for the currency heat map, which incorporates a time-based waiting factor.

01:04:28

The waiting element only applies to the currency heat map, where slower time frames like daily or weekly charts result in gradual shifts in the ranking ladder. This makes the heat map useful for longer-term traders seeking trend reversals on extended time frames. The heat map integrates data drawn from the currency matrix to provide comprehensive insights.

01:05:32

Returning to the majors matrix chart, the speaker notes the importance of understanding inverse relationships in spot markets, such as Dollar/CAD versus CAD/Dollar. This inverse perspective enriches volume and price analysis. Additional indicators like volatility triggers offer early warnings of market changes. The discussion underscores the value of piecing together various indicators and charts to build market understanding, referencing an extensive educational program on bonds that highlights their critical role in the financial markets.

01:07:01

The discussion focuses on the importance of sentiment in trading across various markets, including forex, stocks, and bonds. The speaker emphasizes that market movements are driven by risk appetite—whether investors seek higher returns with higher risk or opt for safer, lower returns. Understanding these relational market behaviors is key to becoming a successful trader. The speaker also highlights the value of finding mechanisms to stay in profitable trades. Finally, there is a brief mention of an education program that now includes a funding option exclusively for students, designed to support them in trading funded accounts.

01:08:29

The program offers students the opportunity to trade large funded accounts without risking their own money, with an entry cost of a few hundred dollars. Participants can start at one of three evaluation levels—$5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. After passing a simple target-based evaluation proving consistent trading skills, traders advance to higher funding levels.

01:09:25

Once a trader passes the evaluation, their account size is multiplied by four, for example, moving from $15,000 to $60,000. Profit sharing begins at 35% during evaluation and increases to 50% at higher levels, with monthly profit payouts. As traders progress through levels, account sizes can grow exponentially up to $2 million. Initially, only 28 spot forex pairs can be traded during evaluation, but at higher stages, additional instruments like indices and gold become available.

01:10:29

The program is extensive, featuring around 450 lessons and 250-300 hours of video content designed to build confidence in trading forex. Resources include Adam’s market analysis on anacooling.com, books available on Amazon in both Kindle and paperback formats, and various trading indicators accessible through linked sites.

01:10:59

The speaker explains that customers who have the Tradestation full package or other platform full packages will receive all current and future indicators free of charge. They offer credits for previous purchases when upgrading to new programs, such as the forex program. They mention Tradestation version 9.5 integrated with Interactive Brokers and the newer Tradestation version 10 and above. The session concludes with thanks, a reminder about the next session on stocks at 2:15, and well wishes for safety during difficult times.

01:12:21

The speaker thanks everyone for attending, wishes them safety, expresses gratitude to Steve for joining, and signs off with a farewell.