The RBA decision explained a terrific new indicator for cryptocurrencies, a check on meme stocks, and a lot more, including a look at index futures and commodities such as copper, oil, gold, and silver.
PART ONE
00:01
Introduction and session overview
00:01
The session begins with a welcome and a disclaimer emphasising the risks involved in trading, advising not to use money one cannot afford to lose. The presenter acknowledges the audience, noting many unfamiliar names, as well as some known forex and quantum program students. The session will cover different markets, starting with forex, and is structured into multiple parts.
01:02
Session structure: forex, indices, stocks
01:02
The session is divided into three main parts: forex, indices and commodities, and stocks. The presenter explains that the methodology of volume price analysis applies across all markets and timeframes, but to keep the discussion focused, the content is segmented by market type. Participants are encouraged to attend all parts, though many join at different times. Understanding other markets can benefit even those who trade only forex, as currency movements are influenced by various factors including market sentiment.
02:33
Volume price analysis and market drivers
02:33
The speaker explains the importance of volume price analysis in trading, emphasizing the close relationship between price action and volume. They highlight that trading decisions are influenced not only by technical analysis but also by fundamental news and related markets. Understanding the broader capital markets, including commodities and forex, benefits traders across different asset classes, such as stocks. The example is given of how stock indices, like the FTSE, are affected by exchange rates and commodity prices, which impacts their movement.
04:13
The discussion continues on the application of volume price analysis and the importance of support and resistance levels in trading. Support and resistance are described as crucial for setting price targets, entry and exit points, and managing trade risk. The speaker notes that these concepts are detailed in their published books covering forex, indices, and stocks. Additionally, they mention the use of candlestick patterns and the availability of various indicators, including proprietary ones, to assist in analysis.
05:20
The speaker elaborates on managing trades by considering risk and using multiple indicators on charts. They emphasize the significance of analyzing time frames in trading and mention plans to review three different charts during the session. They acknowledge that while some traders struggle with using multiple charts, they will provide guidance on effectively using one to three charts to improve trading decisions.
06:22
Using multiple time frames and indicators
06:22
The discussion begins by focusing on the MT4 platform due to its ease of use, emphasizing the importance of analyzing multiple and relevant time frames alongside custom-developed indicators supporting the VPA method for forex trading. Forex is described as a market centered on the flow of money into individual currencies, serving as a medium of exchange for banks, trading desks, and large corporations. Understanding which currencies the market is buying or selling at any moment is crucial, and this is facilitated by a currency strength indicator that acts as a flow indicator. The speaker highlights the importance of tracking where the money flow is strongest across currency pairs.
08:04
An experienced former market maker explains that acquiring currencies is complex and not always a straightforward transaction. Institutions may need to trade through multiple currency pairs to achieve desired exchange rates, often taking indirect or ‘zigzag’ routes. An example is mentioned where a direct exchange between two currencies was impossible, illustrating the complexity of institutional currency trading. The process begins with identifying individual money flows and then analyzing which pairs show the strongest activity, using tools like the currency matrix and currency array indicators to assess trends and strength.
09:07
The currency array indicator helps determine whether a trend is continuing or if a reversal is likely. The currency heat map is another tool that examines multiple time frames to provide a broad overview of currency strength and movement. Although currently underutilized, this heat map can be effective for both intraday monitoring and medium to long-term trend analysis. Long-term reversals often correspond with fundamental macroeconomic factors, adding depth to the technical analysis. These tools assist traders in understanding broader market dynamics and timing potential reversals.
10:08
A funded trading program has been introduced to support new traders who need initial capital to start trading forex. After completing the full forex program, participants can access evaluation accounts funded with varying capital amounts (from $5,000 to $15,000) provided by the program, not the trader’s money. Successful traders can progress through levels, eventually managing accounts up to $2 million. This program aims to mitigate the financial barrier to entry in trading and provide structured growth opportunities for participants.
11:14
The session continues with a brief overview of current market activity using the MT4 platform. The speaker mentions the use of multiple economic calendars simultaneously to track relevant data, likening it to travelling with multiple navigation tools to avoid being caught off guard. This approach underscores the importance of having comprehensive, real-time information when trading forex to make informed decisions.
12:22
RBA rate statement and market reaction
12:22
The speaker humorously recalls a difficult drive through Paris while discussing the experience of blindly following GPS navigation. They then shift focus to the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement, highlighting that the cash rate remained unchanged. The morning’s market reaction was initially dovish, indicating that interest rates were expected to stay steady, which caused some selling pressure on the Australian dollar.
12:49
Despite the initial sell-off following the dovish tone on interest rates, the Australian dollar quickly reversed course and strengthened significantly. This was due to the RBA’s commentary about tapering quantitative easing (QE), which was interpreted as a hawkish signal. The speaker explains that Australia has weathered economic challenges well over the past decade, and the talk of tapering bond purchases led to increased buying of the currency.
13:53
The speaker elaborates on the paradox of the RBA’s messaging: although interest rates are expected to remain low, the discussion of QE tapering is viewed as more hawkish by the market, driving currency appreciation. They praise the RBA for its transparency and clear communication. This leads into a broader point about the importance for forex traders to understand the background, key players, and characteristics of the instruments and central banks they trade, emphasizing the value of interpreting central bank statements accurately.
15:24
Understanding economic data and market impact
15:24
The speaker discusses how traders gradually learn to interpret market signals and fundamentals, using the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcement as a recent example. They highlight the usefulness of various economic calendars, such as Financial Juice and Trading Economics, which offer comprehensive and customizable data including treasury auctions. The speaker emphasizes the importance of filtering these calendars to focus on relevant currency pairs and notes the differing impact ratings for events like retail sales across different platforms.
16:29
The speaker explains that fundamental data calendars also provide useful visual tools like trend charts to better understand economic data. They introduce the upcoming discussion on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, noting that market reactions often defy simple logic because traders focus on expectations rather than just headline numbers.
17:35
The complexity of market expectations around the NFP report is discussed, including how consensus forecasts are formed. The speaker compares economists’ forecasts to a ‘herding effect’ where most forecasts cluster near the middle to avoid risk. This means markets react more strongly when data deviates significantly from consensus. They also mention how market sentiment can be influenced by holidays, such as the U.S. Fourth of July.
18:45
The speaker reflects on the psychological and practical reasons economists give conservative forecasts, highlighting risk aversion similar to preferring established companies like IBM. They note the market’s reaction to last Friday’s NFP was muted as it met expectations and markets dislike ending on a down note before holidays. The segment transitions to a discussion on currency sentiment, noting recent dollar and yen buying, Swiss franc selling, and the fragility of current market sentiment.
19:47
The speaker analyzes recent forex movements, noting strong selling in the Kiwi dollar and its relationship with the Australian dollar due to expected central bank actions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand following the RBA’s moves. They explain that commodity currencies are highly sensitive to sentiment and local fundamental data, with today’s movements reflecting this dynamic. The segment concludes by introducing a currency matrix ranking indicator showing that cross pairs, rather than major pairs, have been most active due to sentiment shifts in commodity currencies.
20:48
The discussion focuses on how commodity currencies, influenced by both sentiment and local data, have dominated forex trading activity today. The speaker notes that most traders focus on major pairs due to their liquidity, but current market conditions have favored cross pairs. The segment closes with a transition to another speaker, David, with a promise to return for further analysis later.
21:19
Currency strength indicator and market flows
21:19
The speaker analyzes the daily chart for the Euro Aussie and mentions the massive downward movement that has mostly occurred already. They discuss the potential for a reversal during the North American session, noting the Euro is at a low point. The Aussie is described as very overextended on the hourly chart, but despite this, further downward movement is possible. The speaker introduces the concept of rotation, suggesting that anticipated reversals in the Euro and Aussie may not happen immediately, indicating market dynamics are shifting.
22:26
With the North American session starting, attention shifts to potential reversals in other major currency pairs. The speaker refers to a significant down bar on the hourly chart tied to the RBA announcement and highlights the importance of price levels defined by the Camarilla indicator, particularly the R3 and S3 levels. They suggest traders should monitor where the price action is relative to these levels at the beginning of the week to identify possible trading opportunities over several days.
23:29
The weekly recalculation of Camarilla levels is emphasized, noting that these levels change each week and influence price behavior. The speaker references a strong sell-off on the previous Friday and subsequent market congestion, influenced by the Fourth of July holiday. They advise that traders might consider waiting for price to break through key support levels (like S3) before entering trades, as this could signal continuation of the move, especially when moving away from shorter timeframes.
24:37
The speaker transitions to a different currency pair and introduces David, who will discuss multiple currency strength indicators. David confirms his microphone and screen are working and prepares to quickly present his analysis without delay.
25:05
Trading reversals and stop loss placement
25:05
The segment introduces multiple timeframes (one, five, ten, and fifteen minutes) for tracking currency movements, highlighting the Swiss franc’s rapid rise into overbought territory across these intervals. The speaker discusses the importance of pairing currencies strategically for trading reversals, suggesting potential candidates like the dollar, yen, or commodity currencies. It emphasizes that trading reversals requires wider stop losses due to higher risk, as entering trends early involves more uncertainty.
26:02
The speaker responds to a question about setting stop losses, stressing that multiple factors influence this decision. The currency strength indicator helps identify trading opportunities and guides which chart timeframes to use. Traders must analyze chart levels, volume price analysis (VPA), and key resistance points to determine if a reversal is developing. This detailed chart analysis helps define appropriate stop loss placement in the context of the current market state.
26:55
Stop loss placement depends on the volatility characteristics of each currency pair. For example, the pound/yen is more volatile, requiring wider stops compared to less volatile pairs like the Australian dollar. There are no fixed rules, and experience combined with money management principles guides stop loss sizing. The key point is that reversal trades demand wider stops to allow for price fluctuations as the market shifts from overbought to oversold conditions.
27:57
Reversal trading involves anticipating the natural oscillation of currencies between overbought and oversold states across all timeframes. The speaker points out that one can only be certain the currency will eventually reverse, but timing is critical. Wider stop losses are necessary to accommodate this waiting period and price buffering. The Swiss franc example illustrates a typical roll-over from overbought to a downward move, emphasizing the mean reversion nature of forex markets.
28:59
In contrast, trading an established trend allows for tighter stop losses since the price momentum is confirmed and underway, likened to jumping on a moving train. While the trader may miss the initial move, the risk is lower, and stops can be placed closer to the position. The speaker advises considering the currency pair and trade type when determining stop loss placement, underscoring that it is more of an art than a science.
29:52
Before moving on to discuss the Cable (GBP/USD) pair, the speaker briefly mentions using multiple trading platforms simultaneously, including NinjaTrader, TradeStation, and TradingView, highlighting the continuity of the theme regarding trading analysis and tools.
30:19
New cryptocurrency strength indicator
30:19
A new cryptocurrency strength indicator was launched this morning and is available to users with the full TradingView package. This indicator functions similarly to the currency strength indicator used on NinjaTrader but is tailored for cryptocurrencies. It measures the strength of various cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, in relation to the US dollar equivalent, Tether (USDT).
31:17
The indicator analyzes cryptocurrencies against Tether, highlighting overbought and oversold conditions to identify reversal and trend trading opportunities. Unlike traditional currencies, cryptocurrencies often move collectively, which can provide strong confirmation when trading. This collective movement is likened to the currency matrix concept in forex trading, where multiple currency pairs confirm the sentiment for a specific currency.
32:37
In forex, the currency matrix helps confirm market sentiment by showing consistent buying or selling across all pairs involving a currency. Divergences can occur due to local news or politics, but generally, consistency is sought. This concept parallels cryptocurrency markets where most coins tend to move together, providing traders with confidence when multiple cryptocurrencies trend in the same direction.
33:35
Though minor divergences can appear on very short time frames, cryptocurrencies mostly move in unison, which reinforces trade confidence. An example on a 20-minute chart shows a strong move down from overbought levels balanced by a rise in Tether, illustrating a clear trade setup. Traders are advised to decide whether to wait for overbought/oversold signals or to ride the momentum as the market moves.
34:29
The speaker highlights ongoing moves in various currencies, such as the Swiss franc and Australian dollar, emphasizing patience. Using multiple time frames is important to identify genuine moves, as price action often starts on faster time frames and then extends to slower ones. Observing these sequential moves helps traders confirm the strength and sustainability of trends.
35:17
A recent strong move in the cable (GBP/USD) pair sparked a discussion about trading breakaways and defining entry points. The key message is the importance of patience when trading breakaways to ensure entries are well-timed and aligned with market momentum.
35:54
Trading breakouts and volume profile
35:54
The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience when trading breakouts, highlighting the advantage of clearly defined levels using volume profile tools such as the volume point of control (VPOC). They discuss congestion periods, volume accumulation, and key support and resistance levels that help identify trading channels and potential breakout points.
36:53
The discussion focuses on analyzing volume during breakouts, particularly how low volume areas allow price to move swiftly through them. The VPOC not only defines market fulcrums but also helps anticipate price movement through regions of high and low volume, aiding traders in gauging the strength of the breakout.
37:54
The speaker explains how traders expect rapid price movement through low volume zones, similar to traditional support and resistance concepts but based on volume. They note how volume attenuation during a breakout signals weakening selling pressure and potential buying interest, which can indicate a market transition.
38:42
The importance of volume and candle patterns during a breakout is discussed, including how stop-loss placement can be effectively managed using volume-based support and resistance levels. The speaker highlights that strong volume is needed for reversals, and volume trends during rallies and pullbacks provide clues about breakout strength.
40:03
Volume analysis continues with attention on weakening rallies marked by falling volume and wicks on candles, signaling weak buying attempts. The narrowing spread and low volume on certain candles indicate potential exhaustion of selling pressure, providing insight into market sentiment and likely next moves.
40:30
The speaker compares current candle volumes to previous benchmarks to identify diminishing selling or buying interest. This volume diminution suggests potential market pauses or reversals, giving traders signals to consider closing or scaling out positions based on volume trends rather than price alone.
41:38
They recommend using volume analysis to decide when to partially or fully exit trades, especially when volume weakens while price remains at key levels. The trend monitor indicator is introduced as a tool to help traders stay invested during uncertain and congested phases by promoting logical decision-making over emotional reactions.
42:31
The trend monitor’s role in supporting trader confidence through volatile or unclear market phases is emphasized. The speaker outlines how this indicator helps avoid knee-jerk reactions and maintain patience, showing a classic example of breakout trading combined with volume price analysis (VPA) and other technical tools.
43:09
The speaker discusses the applicability of the breakout trading principles across different time frames, noting that shorter intervals like 15 seconds can offer scalping opportunities while emphasizing that the same concepts hold true on longer time frames. They review the trend monitor’s partial signals indicating current market uncertainty.
44:11
Attention shifts to the daily chart, where significant resistance and volume point of control levels are identified as critical to future price movement. The speaker stresses the greater importance of slower time frames for confirming resistance and support, concluding with a transition back to other currency pairs and risk considerations in joining existing trends.
45:12
Pound Aussie analysis and trade setups
45:12
The discussion begins with an analysis of the Pound-Aussie currency pair using the Camarilla indicator, which includes six calculated levels instead of the usual four. The speaker notes strong price action in the morning session, explaining how daily levels were taken out and will be recalculated at rollover. They emphasize the usefulness of combining multiple time frames—hourly, five-minute, and Renko charts—to understand price movements effectively.
46:29
The speaker reviews the morning’s price move, describing a waterfall decline with lower volume compared to current levels, attributed to varying market participation across different sessions. They explain that while volume looks compressed, it reflects typical activity levels during Asia and early Europe sessions before London liquidity arrives, which significantly increases market participation and volume.
47:04
As London trading begins, volume dynamics change, but traditional volume price analysis (VPA) patterns remain valid. The speaker highlights a strong downward move off a key support level (R3) and describes a congestion phase where price movement stalls, signaling potential reversal. They emphasize the importance of recognizing volume anomalies and effort versus result in candles to assess market equilibrium and potential trend changes.
48:11
Focusing on a set of four candles during congestion, the speaker points out that despite effort to push price higher, the lack of significant upward movement and volume patterns suggest weakness. They note the market is at the volume point of control, indicating equilibrium, and mention that pre-London open trading often experiences congestion as traders await clearer direction from London participants.
49:13
The volume histogram shows declining value during the waterfall decline, which is an anomaly. Support and resistance levels play a crucial role, and the speaker stresses incorporating multiple factors, including volume and price support, to evaluate market behavior. Around London open, a notable candle shows an effort to rise that meets resistance and results in a volume spike, signaling potential short-term trading opportunities despite the overall downtrend.
50:22
The speaker discusses the decision-making process for entering trades during congestion and reversals. They highlight the importance of waiting for a clear base or support confirmation before considering a reversal trade. Using the volume point of control and price-based support, traders can identify potential reversal zones. The hourly chart is also used to validate these signals, and the possibility of continuation lower is examined through support levels such as S4.
51:58
If the price continues lower, the primary target is the S4 support level, although it was not reached this time. The presence of a wick at the bottom of a candle indicates some buying interest, suggesting risk management considerations. The Aussie is described as overextended, increasing the likelihood of a rollover. The speaker also refers to a crossover on the CSI indicator on the five-minute chart as a sign of a possible move underway, demonstrating the integration of multiple tools for trade confirmation.
53:02
The Renko chart is used to filter noise and confirm the clean break from S3 support, showing congestion and an effort to rise that was weak as indicated by volume price analysis. Trend indicators also changed color, signaling a move. However, due to the timing around London open, the speaker advises patience, often waiting up to 40 minutes after market open to confirm price action and avoid false signals in fast time frames.
54:49
The primary downtrend is said to have resumed after a secondary trend and a final push lower, which is common before reversals. The price then enters a sideways basing phase, searching for support with daily levels exhausted but volume point of control providing a strong support platform. The speaker notes a large down candle and the importance of monitoring if support will hold or if a retest of S3 might occur, emphasizing the need for ongoing observation.
55:59
Turning to cross currency pairs, the speaker highlights recent strong moves but cautions about wider spreads on faster time frames, which impact trading costs. They suggest considering brokers that offer raw or zero spreads with small commissions as an alternative. Examples of cross pairs mentioned include Aussie-CAD, Aussie-Swiss, and Euro-Aussie. The difficulty with less liquid pairs compared to majors like EUR/USD or GBP/USD is noted, along with the necessity to factor in trading costs.
57:42
The speaker explains how to manage the CSI indicator by focusing on a limited number of pairs (three or four) to monitor correlated movements effectively. Using the Pound-Aussie minor pair as a base, they observe pairs moving in parallel, indicating congestion and lack of clear trade opportunities. Adding volume point of control indicators helps identify where price stopped and where volume support exists. The combination of levels and flow helps traders assess potential reversals and risk-reward decisions.
59:44
The session concludes with a plan to pause briefly before shifting focus to indices, noting the current lack of volatility. The speaker emphasizes the importance of discussing volatility, referencing the VIX as a key measure, and preparing to analyze its implications on market behavior.
01:00:14
Market volatility and complacency
01:00:14
The speaker discusses the current market complacency, highlighting an unusually low level of volatility reflected in the VIX and its impact on forex trading. They explain that a lack of volatility leads to market stagnation and congestion, which can be risky because breakouts tend to be weak. Although extreme volatility has its own risks, some movement is preferable to a flat market. The recent RBA event provided some price movement, but overall, the market remains subdued. The speaker then reviews the Nasdaq daily chart, noting its difficulty for traders due to tight ranges, and mentions that small caps are mostly sideways with a bearish bias.
01:01:54
The speaker invites viewers to stay for the next segment and mentions the availability of various trading indicators and platforms at quantumtrading.com. They list supported platforms including MT4/5, NinjaTrader 7/8, TradingView, and newly launched versions of TradeStation, ensuring traders can access necessary tools across different systems.
01:02:20
Trading platforms and indicator packages
01:02:20
The speaker explains how customers can use different trading platforms such as Interactive Brokers, TradeStation 10, MT4, TradingView, and NinjaTrader, emphasizing the flexibility to move indicators between platforms at no extra charge. They highlight that upgrading to a higher package grants credits for previously purchased indicators, protecting the customer’s investment. The current full package price for TradeStation is $677, which is expected to increase as new indicators are developed. Investing now offers the advantage of receiving all future indicators for free, especially with the TradingView package.
01:03:48
Purchasing the full package includes access to all future indicators at no additional cost as a token of appreciation. The speaker briefly introduces the comprehensive educational program called the Complete Forex Trading Program, which covers various essential topics such as trading psychology and fundamental analysis, providing a thorough learning experience for traders.
01:04:21
Complete forex trading program overview
01:04:21
The speaker explains the comprehensive nature of the trading program, covering relational analysis to understand market interconnections and risk, including bonds, commodities, and currency pairs. A deep dive into technical analysis, particularly Volume Price Analysis (VPA), is provided, teaching principles such as Wyckoff’s laws and how to apply VPA effectively. The program also helps students identify trend pauses and distinguish between reversals and pullbacks to avoid exiting trades prematurely. It includes extensive video content, webinars, and practical indicator usage.
01:05:53
The program now features the QTE Funded Forex Program, which offers students the opportunity to trade with funded accounts ranging from $5,000 to $15,000 without personal financial risk. Upon meeting achievable consistency targets, account sizes are multiplied up to $240,000 and beyond, allowing students to manage large trading accounts. This optional program requires a one-time fee and aims to leverage students’ knowledge while minimizing their financial exposure.
01:06:47
The presenter emphasizes the completeness of the package, combining education and funded trading opportunities. They then shift focus to available trading platforms and indicators offered by quantumtrading.com, including MT4, NinjaTrader 7 & 8, and TradeStation versions 9.5 and 10, which feature RadarScreen technology. Customers can transfer indicators across platforms at no extra charge, and credits are provided when upgrading indicator packages, ensuring protection of initial investments.
01:08:26
Investing in the full indicator package currently offers access to all future indicator developments at no additional cost, with prices expected to increase as more indicators are added. The speaker encourages investing now to take advantage of this offer. They then provide an overview of the education program, highlighting its comprehensive coverage of psychology, fundamental and relational analysis, and technical analysis, reaffirming it as a complete forex trading program.
01:09:22
The education program thoroughly covers market relationships, including bonds and commodities, and provides an in-depth study of VPA and related principles, focusing on trend identification and management to prevent premature trade exits. It includes hundreds of hours of video content, live webinars, and resources. The addition of the QTE Funded Forex Program complements the learning by giving students a risk-free opportunity to trade large accounts, reinforcing the program’s goal to equip traders comprehensively.
01:10:57
QTE funded forex program details and benefits
01:10:57
The program is exclusively available to students and offers a risk-free opportunity to trade using the company’s money. Students can start with an evaluation account funded with $5,000, $10,000, or $15,000. Upon achieving a set, achievable target that demonstrates consistent trading ability, the account size is multiplied fourfold. For example, starting with $15,000 can grow to $60,000, and further doubling can increase the account to $120,000 and then $240,000, eventually allowing trading with accounts worth one to two million dollars.
01:11:53
There is a one-time fee to join the program, which is the only cost involved. Participation is optional, but the program is designed to comprehensively support students in leveraging their knowledge with no personal financial risk. The video concludes with encouragement to watch more content and gratitude for the audience’s time.
PART TWO
00:13
Introduction and Financial Juice news feed
00:13
The speaker apologizes for the delay caused by a break and introduces a discussion about indices and commodities. They mention finding a useful tool on Financial Juice, highlighting its new feature that provides cross-market impact analysis for news items, which helps users understand potential effects on markets. The speaker praises the platform for its functionality and competitive pricing compared to other news services.
01:17
Crude oil bullish outlook and chart analysis
01:17
The speaker discusses their bullish stance on crude oil, noting that despite some criticism predicting prices might fall to $47, their chart analysis currently does not support that view. They acknowledge that everyone has their own perspective as traders. Additionally, the segment touches on currency movements, specifically the Australian dollar’s rise and speculation around New Zealand’s interest rates, which has since been ruled out.
02:21
Volatility index (VIX) impact on markets
02:21
The segment discusses the impact of interest rates and volatility on financial markets, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the VIX as an indicator of market risk sentiment. It highlights how rising oil prices significantly affect stock markets by increasing transportation costs, which in turn raise business expenses and influence company profitability. The interaction between oil prices, interest rates, and market dynamics is described as reaching an inflection point where continued increases in oil prices inevitably impact market behavior, regardless of Federal Reserve actions.
04:33
Oil price effects on economy and markets
04:33
The discussion focuses on rising oil prices, which serve both as indicators of economic growth and potential brakes when prices become too high, possibly signaling a slowdown. Attention is given to key stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq and small caps, which have shown little movement recently, including during a holiday period. The analysis then shifts to chart patterns, specifically derivatives of the YM index, highlighting anomalies and the importance of volume trends. Indicators of market tops include either high volume with narrow price spreads or rising prices accompanied by decreasing volume, reflecting waning market interest.
05:38
Indices and volume analysis
05:38
The discussion focuses on a market that hasn’t tested its all-time high and shows bullish signs despite some congestion and low volatility. Volume patterns from the previous day are considered important for context. The speaker advises caution on fast time frames due to narrow spreads and potential fake outs, suggesting traders might consider switching to other platforms or instruments until clearer market shifts occur.
06:46
Analysis continues with a focus on the Renko chart for the YM, highlighting key price action and important levels being tested that could signal a breakout. The hourly chart shows the market trading within a neutral ‘buffer zone’ between resistance and support levels (R1 and S1), indicating a current lack of clear direction. The segment ends with the speaker inviting David to provide further insights, mentioning a recent dip in gold prices.
07:56
Gold price drop and volume price analysis
07:56
The speaker discusses a sharp sell-off characterized by rising volumes and a significant down bar on the daily chart, highlighting a key support level at the volume point of control (VPOC). Despite the initial drop, buying pressure emerged at this support, preventing further decline. The speaker explains that falling markets often overshoot support levels due to momentum and require substantial volume to halt the decline, likening it to stopping a burst pipe.
09:05
This segment emphasizes a strong reversal in the oil market, observed as price finds support at the volume point of control after topping out. The weekly chart suggests a potential price target or support area based on volume analysis. The speaker notes increasing volume under recent candles, indicating price support. The segment ends by handing over to David, who begins discussing copper and invites viewers to ask questions.
10:28
Copper daily chart and economic indicator
10:28
The speaker introduces the daily chart analysis of the September copper contract, emphasizing that Volume Price Analysis (VPA) principles apply across all timeframes. Key factors to observe include spread behavior, volume changes in relation to market movement, and support and resistance levels. These elements together form a comprehensive approach to understanding market dynamics.
11:03
Copper is highlighted as a bullish commodity and a key economic indicator, often called ‘Dr. Copper’ because its strong demand signals economic growth. The speaker explains copper’s role as a bellwether for the broader economy due to its widespread industrial use, noting that a strong copper market usually correlates with economic expansion.
11:43
The relationship between copper prices and economic growth is generally reliable but not absolute, and anomalies can occur. The speaker advises caution when interpreting these signals and stresses the importance of understanding that market behaviors are not guaranteed but indicative.
12:14
The speaker discusses a recent anomaly in copper’s price action characterized by a break away from volume pointing control with significant volume inflows. This unusual price behavior suggests caution, as it may signal a potential market reversal, though such reversals often take time to fully develop.
12:47
Interpreting anomalies in VPA can be challenging, especially for beginners. The speaker warns against expecting immediate price reversals after volume and price anomalies, noting that while such reversals sometimes happen quickly, they usually unfold more gradually.
13:14
While rapid V-shape rallies or declines in response to volume spikes can occur, particularly in equities and indices following fundamental news like Fed announcements, these are exceptions. Typically, price and volume patterns provide early warnings of market tops or weakness rather than immediate reversals.
13:42
The speaker elaborates on typical price behavior near market peaks, describing signs of weakness and profit taking during a strong rally. Volume and price action suggest that big operators begin to exit positions, indicating potential market topping phases.
14:13
Attention is drawn to volume profile key areas such as low volume nodes, where prices tend to move quickly, and high volume areas, which act as support or resistance. The speaker explains that moving through these zones requires different volume levels and that volume behavior during declines can indicate the ease of price movement.
14:42
The speaker observes that selling pressure diminishes as price declines through low volume nodes, making it easier for the market to move down. However, volume on down days is falling, signaling weakening selling strength, which is important for interpreting market momentum.
15:07
Overall, the analysis highlights a gradual reduction in selling pressure and weakening volume during rallies, suggesting that recent price movements lack strong conviction. This context helps traders assess whether price and volume behavior align with expectations for sustainable trends or indicate potential market fragility.
15:36
Intraday copper price and volume trends
15:36
The market shows significant volume activity today, currently visible on the daily chart. Intraday, there has been a notable downward movement. On the 10-minute chart, volatility has triggered substantial volume, leading to a congestion phase. A near-symmetrical candle pattern appears at the top, indicating a potential market pivot point, though the rollover development requires patience to fully materialize.
16:04
The market experiences a brief pivot upward before continuing downward through a low volume node quickly. Rising volume accompanies falling prices, which is a classic sign of a price decline with widening spreads. This combination suggests increasing bearish momentum and confirms the downward price waterfall.
16:33
Despite a small rally attempt marked by a wick with volume similar to the previous candle, the market shows weak strength. The first major support is identified at the volume point of control around 4.36, where rising volume suggests the price may struggle to move lower. This level acts as a potential pause in the downward movement.
17:01
Multiple support factors converge near the 4.36 level, including significant price support and volume clusters, making a sharp decline below this level unlikely. Traders should expect the market to pause or consolidate here rather than breaking down further.
17:27
On the 10-minute timeframe, the combination of volume and price support creates a wedge that will likely limit further downside movement. The speaker briefly shifts focus to review other markets, specifically currency futures, to assess their current conditions.
17:55
Currency futures overview and dollar sentiment
17:55
The segment explains how forex futures for currencies are quoted inverted against the dollar, such as CAD/USD being shown as CAD dollar rather than dollar CAD. Examples include 6A, 6B, 6C, and others like 6J for yen dollar and 6N for New Zealand dollar. The speaker highlights how this inverted notation can make the numbers appear unusual but provides a clear view of major currency futures. It also discusses comparing futures and spot markets to gauge overall sentiment toward the dollar, checking for consistent price action or divergences, and notes the ease of analyzing these movements visually.
19:00
Oil price forecast and OPEC supply issues
19:00
The speaker explains that the dollar-yen pair behaves differently from other yen currency pairs due to both currencies being safe havens, making it unique and isolated within the yen complex. They then shift focus to oil, noting its bullish trend with prices around $76-77 per barrel. Despite no OPEC agreement on supply, there was a significant volume injection recently, indicating some profit taking but overall momentum remains upward.
20:06
Oil prices are expected to face some congestion around the current price levels but are likely to move higher on weekly and monthly time frames. Intraday traders are advised to be patient as the market consolidates. A breakout on the three-minute chart suggests potential for further price movement, but traders should wait for clear signals before entering positions.
20:52
The speaker discusses key support and resistance levels for oil trading, highlighting a crucial floor level near $76.45-$76.50 per barrel. Falling volume below this support could lead to swift price movements. Traders are advised to place stop losses above strong resistance points in line with money management rules. The market is showing promising development, with attention on volume trends to gauge next moves.
21:42
Observations on the 15-second timeframe reveal a significant increase in volume and a volatility trigger, signaling possible short-term congestion. This aligns with the three-minute chart’s expected hold, demonstrating how different timeframes reflect similar market pauses. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding shorter time horizon impacts on trading decisions.
22:10
Short-term oil volatility and trading strategy
22:10
The speaker analyzes market volatility on a one-minute chart, noting significant buying volume that could signal a potential V-shaped rally. However, they caution that this is uncertain and emphasize that the presence of buying activity should alert short traders to expect some upward price movement in the near term. Volume Price Analysis (VPA) helps traders avoid emotional reactions by encouraging logical interpretation of market signals instead of impulsive decisions.
23:06
VPA promotes logical thinking during trades, helping traders recognize buying activity and potential rallies, thus preventing premature exits. The speaker explains that many traders lose money not due to lack of market knowledge but because they cannot hold onto profitable positions, often closing them too early. This behavior results in missed opportunities for greater gains.
24:01
Consistently closing positions prematurely leads to accumulating small losses and profits, causing a trading account to deteriorate over time. The speaker highlights this as a common problem among traders and explains that VPA techniques are designed to help overcome this issue by encouraging patience and better trade management. These principles have been integrated into their forex education program.
24:31
VPA benefits and trader psychology
24:31
The speaker explains that forex trading is central to all financial markets, acting as the hub of sentiment and the gateway through which assets move between equities, commodities, and bonds via cash. They highlight a recent two-candle reversal pattern accompanied by declining volume, indicating a weak move rather than a strong trend. The expectation is for the price to drop below key support levels around 76 to 75 per barrel, signaling further downward movement.
25:40
A detailed look at shorter time frames shows no strong volatility triggers despite some selling pressure and rising volume. The price is hovering near a low volume node, suggesting a pause as the market trades within a narrow range. The analysis confirms a cautious outlook with no immediate breakout, waiting for clearer signals on the 15-second chart.
26:36
The presenter apologizes for a brief segment due to a scheduling conflict but introduces the topic of market volatility, referencing previous discussions on the VIX index. They emphasize the importance of using the VIX as a barometer to gauge market mood and volatility trends, setting the stage for a more in-depth analysis in future sessions.
27:16
Market complacency and retail investor stats
27:16
The speaker discusses market participant sentiment, noting current low volatility with the VIX around 15, indicating complacency. They highlight that 10 million new brokerage accounts have been opened recently, driven by easier trading platforms and increased retail investor activity. However, this low volatility environment carries risks, which will be explored further in future webinars.
29:01
Seventy percent of retail investors remain bullish, confident the market will continue rising due to Federal Reserve support. While the Fed is managing interest rates and employment, it is seen as the stock market’s guardian. The speaker addresses questions about a potential major market downturn, suggesting that while a big crash is unlikely soon, a correction is inevitable, possibly delayed to 2022. Investors tend to buy the dips, a strategy that has worked so far, though only 40% of fund managers share this optimism.
30:51
The discussion shifts to the influence of social media and activist trading on stock prices, referencing mimistocks.org, a site tracking stock mentions and trends. Notably, the frequency of stock mentions has been declining, indicating a possible pullback in retail interest. The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring such data for stock selection. They also introduce the topic of heavily shorted stocks like GameStop, which have driven price surges, noting the challenge of obtaining real-time short interest data.
32:38
Short interest data and potential short squeezes
32:38
The speaker discusses the challenge of finding timely information on heavily shorted stocks for potential short squeezes, recommending a resource by E. Hall Du Zaniski that offers free updates on current short positions. Despite the market being heavily skewed towards long positions with few shorts, the data includes details on shares, float size, and short interest. This information is useful not for recommending shorts but for identifying stocks that might experience a rapid and significant short squeeze, presenting potential buying opportunities.
34:13
The speaker plans to monitor the short interest updates weekly and analyze selected stocks using volume price analysis (VPA). They also mention the difficulty in tracking sector-specific stock movements due to the disappearance of useful resources but introduce a free tool called BarChart as a valuable alternative. This tool helps confirm the market’s strong bias toward long positions. Additionally, the speaker intends to review specific stocks with notable short interest, such as Fuel Cell, which still faces significant short-selling pressure, and BTX, while briefly mentioning recent movements in the gold market.
36:01
Gold and oil trading signals and volatility triggers
36:01
The speaker discusses analyzing volume and price action on charts, using oil as an example. They emphasize the importance of not exiting trades too early to avoid missing the bulk of a move, illustrating this with a recent oil price drop from above $76 a barrel.
37:03
They explain the strategy of closing out positions when a volatility trigger appears on primary timeframes, especially if profits are already made. The speaker warns against holding through congestion or reversal phases, advising to exit to avoid regret from losing accumulated profits.
38:10
The challenge of staying in profitable trades during congestion is highlighted as a common psychological difficulty. The speaker mentions developing a trend monitor to help with this. They recommend exiting trades immediately upon a volatility trigger, supported by strong volume, indicating market makers’ involvement.
39:07
Volatility triggers cause fear and sudden moves as traders jump in late, often regretting their decisions as prices reverse. The speaker points out a significant volatility trigger on a 15-minute chart accompanied by high volume, signaling expected congestion or reversal, reinforcing the advice to exit positions during such signals.
40:02
The trader suggests waiting to see if the market falls further before considering re-entry at lower levels. They advise moving on to other trades in the meantime. The segment ends with an apology for overrunning the session and a note about addressing unresolved questions in the future.
40:42
Current indices market conditions
40:42
The speaker notes the need to finish on time due to an upcoming appointment. They review the current state of the indices, pointing out minimal price movement with the YM slightly down, NQ slightly up, and ES flat, visible on the five-minute chart. Despite the lack of significant action in the indices, there is optimism that the market may become more active later. Attention then shifts to gold, which is rallying on the daily chart after holding a strong support level near the value point (VP), indicating a solid price base and expected stability.
41:47
Gold and silver volume and price support levels
41:47
The speaker explains the blue dashed line on the accumulation distribution indicator, which automatically generates support and resistance levels based on volume strength. These levels thicken as they are tested, indicating stronger points of support or resistance. This visual aid helps traders identify important price zones, demonstrated by clusters of resistance levels in the example.
42:34
Discussion focuses on price movement expectations for gold, highlighting the importance of volume and the volume point of control. The current movement is to the upside, which is favorable, but the price must overcome multiple resistance zones. The speaker notes that passing through these zones will require solid volume to push prices higher, with particular challenges expected near the 1860 per ounce mark due to price congestion.
43:26
The analysis continues with anticipation of price behavior as gold approaches higher resistance levels. After passing a low volume node allowing easier movement, the price is expected to encounter more significant congestion around 1900 per ounce. Silver is noted to behave similarly to gold, moving in a comparable range. The accumulation distribution indicator again provides clear support and resistance levels around the volume point of control, assisting in risk management and stop loss placement.
44:24
The speaker elaborates on the volume-based support and resistance zones for silver, noting a likely straightforward rise to approximately 2750, with increased difficulty beyond 2780. Breaking through 28.50 would open the path towards 30. The session concludes with a brief mention of other markets, emphasizing the importance of the forex education program for understanding market dynamics across different asset classes despite its forex focus.
45:28
Forex education and VPA training program
45:28
The course integrates extensive generic trading experience and knowledge, applicable to all markets. It features a comprehensive module on volume price analysis (VPA), relational analysis, and the mechanics of trading. A large section is dedicated to fundamental analysis, emphasizing its relevance across all markets through topics such as sentiment and economic growth. The program includes around 450 lessons and 250 to 300 hours of video content, developed over two years to cover everything a trader needs to know.
46:26
The course aims to equip traders with confidence and understanding of how various markets interrelate. Many traders start with forex but often expand into index futures, commodities, or stocks after learning. Additionally, there is a funded forex program allowing students to trade with the program’s capital, starting at various evaluation levels with different account sizes. This addition provides an opportunity for students to trade large sums of money by paying a cost of entry.
47:24
Funded forex program details and account levels
47:24
The trading program involves using the company’s funds, so traders never risk their own money. Traders start with smaller funded accounts and must achieve specific profit targets while adhering to money management rules designed to mimic professional trading desk standards.
47:47
The evaluation stage tests a trader’s consistency with accounts ranging from $5,000 to $15,000. Success at this level allows traders to scale up their capital by replicating their strategies at higher funding levels, starting with a fourfold increase after meeting profit targets.
48:22
After passing the evaluation, traders move to larger accounts—$60,000 from $15,000—and gain access to additional markets such as indices and gold. At higher levels, the account size is doubled incrementally, potentially reaching up to $2 million in trading capital.
48:50
Profit sharing improves with higher account levels: at the evaluation stage, traders receive a 35% lump sum of profits upon hitting targets. At portfolio manager levels, monthly payouts increase to 50%, and at the $1 million level, kickbacks rise to 60%, offering significant earning potential.
49:18
Quantum Trading indicators and platforms overview
49:18
The speaker discusses the funded forex program and the availability of various trading indicators at quantumtrading.com, including a newly released cryptocurrency strength indicator offered free with the full package purchase. They explain that purchasing the full package, either via an easy payment plan or outright, grants access to all current and future indicators at no extra cost. The presentation covers different trading platforms supported, such as TradingView, NinjaTrader (MT4 and MT5), and TradeStation. TradeStation comes in two versions: TradeStation Global, which integrates with Interactive Brokers and offers powerful market access but is more complex, and TradeStation 10 and above, which also features the radar screen tool. One license covers multiple platforms, allowing users to switch between MT4 and MT5 through the Quantum Trading dashboard without additional fees.
51:19
Trading platforms and license flexibility
51:19
The speaker briefly introduces Anna’s website, anacooling.com, where viewers can find the latest analysis posts, links to various sites, and books available on Amazon. They mention the books are selling very well and they receive frequent positive feedback and numerous emails weekly. The segment ends with the speaker wishing viewers an enjoyable trading session and inviting questions.
51:48
Contact info and webinar wrap-up
51:48
The speakers conclude the session by inviting viewers to contact them via email for any questions related to the webinar or other topics. They apologize for the rushed ending and inform that the recorded webinar will be uploaded to Anna’s YouTube channel either later the same day or the next. They thank the audience for attending, express hope that everyone enjoyed the session, and look forward to the next week’s webinar. Finally, they wish everyone a good week and encourage self-care before signing off.
By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis