Trading forex using volume price analysis with Anna Coulling

Trading forex using volume price analysis with Anna Coulling in the weekly live webinars for those wanting to learn how to trade currencies with confidence.

00:00

Introduction and Disclaimer

00:00

The webinar host welcomes attendees to the morning forex session, apologizing for feeling a bit washed out due to the heat. They express gratitude for participants’ time and introduce the webinar’s focus on recent and current forex market developments. A disclaimer about the risks involved in trading is also highlighted.

00:32

Overview of Volume Price Analysis in Forex

00:32

The discussion focuses on the importance of using money one can afford to lose when trading in the forex market. It introduces volume price analysis (VPA) as a method to interpret charts by examining the close relationship between price action and trading volume, highlighting buying and selling activity. The segment explains how VPA helps determine whether market moves are genuine. Additionally, it mentions that further explanation and resources on this methodology, including a digital box set for forex, are available on Amazon. The forex market’s price action is influenced by various factors such as fundamental releases and activities in other markets.

01:35

Impact of Related Markets and Sentiment

01:35

The discussion focuses on analyzing various markets through the lens of sentiment, which is currently a dominant theme due to recent events. The speaker highlights the importance of looking beyond just forex to related markets, especially commodity markets that influence commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, and Canadian dollar. They emphasize the interconnectedness of these markets and note that contemporary forex analysis frequently references developments in bond markets and volatility indices like the VIX, reflecting a holistic approach to trading and market commentary.

03:19

Components of VPA and Support/Resistance

03:19

The speaker explains the importance of understanding the broader context in trading, even when focusing on very fast charts. They highlight that trading can feel overwhelming at first, which motivated the creation of their forex program and books. The discussion introduces the components of Volume Price Analysis (VPA), emphasizing price action, volume, candle patterns, and particularly the crucial role of support and resistance levels. These levels are vital because they reflect significant market interest and behavior. The speaker stresses the necessity of clearly marking these levels on charts and mentions that their approach includes both price-based and volume-based support and resistance, incorporating tools like Fibonacci analysis. Additionally, they reference the use of standard technical indicators alongside proprietary ones developed to assess buying and selling pressures across various markets, especially forex.

05:02

Indicators and Market Flow Strength

05:02

The speaker explains that the market is fundamentally about levels and the flow of buying and selling. Using specific indicators based on VPA principles, they aim to identify the direction and strength of these flows to determine if a market setup has momentum and potential to move. Three indicators—the matrix, the array, and the currency heat map—provide values indicating the strength of these flows. A new method on TradingView helps interpret these values as high, medium, or low. The speaker also reflects on a recent strong market day and likens the current market mood to the calm after a major event, referencing the UK’s ‘freedom day’ celebration.

06:42

Forex Program and Funded Trading Opportunity

06:42

The speaker describes the current market feeling as sluggish, similar to a hangover, with less dramatic movement compared to the previous day. They introduce a comprehensive ‘forest program’ designed to equip participants with all the necessary knowledge to succeed in the market. Additionally, the program now offers a funded account option, where students can pay a one-time fee to progress through levels and potentially manage up to two million dollars of the program’s capital, eliminating personal financial risk.

07:46

Fundamental News and Central Bank Insights

07:46

The video begins by discussing recent fundamental news, noting that today is quiet compared to last week’s numerous events. Attention is drawn to the euro, highlighting the importance of Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision and press conference for euro traders. The speaker emphasizes the need to understand central bank communications, as market reactions to their statements significantly impact currency movements. The euro’s situation is briefly touched on, mentioning recent changes in its interest and inflation framework that remain somewhat vague.

09:27

The discussion shifts to the importance of interpreting central bank minutes and market expectations, with a focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Unlike other central banks, the RBA has been discussing tapering bond purchases despite holding off on interest rate hikes. The market was eager to learn from the recent RBA minutes what the future monetary policy might be, especially regarding inflation and rate adjustments.

10:32

The speaker recommends using tools like Forex Factory to access clear and accessible media commentary on central bank releases, highlighting the RBA as particularly straightforward to understand. Westpac’s summaries are noted as helpful for making sense of these releases. The segment concludes by suggesting traders analyze the price action following these releases, using the Australian dollar as an example to observe market reactions on hourly charts.

11:40

Analyzing Aussie Dollar Price Action

11:40

The discussion focuses on the Aussie dollar’s price action overnight, noting a lack of volatility in the hourly chart. An indicator using small arrows signals when price moves beyond the average true range for a timeframe, but no such triggers appeared, indicating the market behaved as expected without surprises.

12:47

Traders are advised to develop a structured timetable for their currency analysis, encompassing monthly, weekly, and daily expectations. This approach helps anticipate news and currency power changes in advance, improving chart reading and trading decisions.

13:28

Using Economic Calendars for Trading

13:28

The speaker discusses a module in their program that analyzes past price actions around policy minutes releases to build background knowledge on currency pairs. While past price behavior is not guaranteed to repeat, it provides useful insights. Forex Factory is recommended for accessing a wide range of economic commentary and data releases. Trading Economics is highlighted as a more comprehensive calendar that includes releases not covered by Forex Factory. Upcoming important data such as housing starts and building permits are noted for their significance.

15:06

The speaker explains the importance of housing market data as an indicator of the broader economy, noting that the U.S. housing market has been strong but any slowdown could signal economic changes. Another calendar from Financial Juice is introduced, which combines economic data releases with market commentary to keep traders informed without overwhelming them. The speaker references a recent dramatic market day and hints at discussing the implications and predictability of such events by examining daily charts of stock indices.

15:37

Market Sentiment and Recent Corrections

15:37

The speaker describes a sharp market correction driven by price action and volume, noting this was expected. The Dow Jones experienced a nearly thousand-point drop but began to bounce back. Futures markets showed gains with the S&P up 22 points and the VIX elevated but not alarmingly so, indicating cautious sentiment. The Nasdaq exhibited a pattern of creeping gains followed by sharp sell-offs and partial recoveries, reflecting ongoing nervousness in the market.

16:46

The market continued to show volatility with repeated sell-offs and rebounds, signaling nervousness but not a severe crash like the previous year’s washout. This behavior is expected to persist. Individual currency pairs mirror market sentiment, with buying and selling activity reflecting these fluctuations. After sharp declines, markets tend to pause and find support, leading to slow and gradual recoveries as buyers cautiously return.

18:00

Price Cycles and Currency Sentiment

18:00

The speaker explains that sharp V-shaped price reversals are rare, with most price action involving stopping volume, congestion, and gradual reversals. This price behavior is fractal and consistent across different timeframes. They analyze the currency strength index (CSI), noting that currencies were mostly bunched together, indicating market congestion. The pound showed volatile movement, rising and falling before a significant drop. The market drama observed on Monday reflects these dynamics.

19:14

Safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, along with the US dollar, saw buying interest, while commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar experienced strong sell-offs. The day’s currency movements aligned well with expected sentiment correlations. Current extreme market values suggest a fragile sentiment with potential reversals. However, attempts at recovery may fail to hold, and the direction will be influenced heavily by Wall Street’s opening and futures market activity.

20:28

The sell-off was driven by concerns about a resurgence of the virus and its impact on economic recovery, leading to fears of recession and dampened optimism. Contrasting this, the upcoming US earnings season might provide support for equities and risk assets, possibly encouraging market gains. The forex market, however, may diverge from prevailing narratives, reflecting actual buying and selling behavior rather than commentary.

21:35

Reversals in the market are underway but appear weak and uncertain. Traders may need to focus on faster timeframes or non-time-based charts to capture small moves in a low volatility environment. Market indicators show low activity and poor movement, exemplified by the euro-dollar pair’s weak liquidity and poor performance for this time of day. This suggests a desolate market where careful, nuanced strategies are necessary.

23:12

Yen Pairs and Stopping Volume Explained

23:12

The discussion focuses on the significant trading activity in cross currency pairs, particularly involving the yen as a proxy for market sentiment. The yen pairs were heavily sold off during the recent market downturn, attracting substantial flow into the yen, which indicates strong risk-off sentiment. The Aussie yen pair is highlighted as a good proxy for sentiment, showing a large bearish candle with high volume from the previous day.

24:19

The large bearish candle in the Aussie yen pair shows a wick at the bottom, indicating stopping volume where buyers stepped in to halt the decline. This suggests some support at a key price-based level (S6), but overall sentiment remains fragile, requiring a strong catalyst for buyers to maintain upward momentum.

24:48

An hourly chart analysis demonstrates a classic volume price analysis (VPA) pattern. After breaking below a significant support level (S3), the market moved lower with increasing volume, which is a typical bearish signal. However, a surge in volume accompanied a deep wick at the candle’s bottom, signaling stopping volume and a potential halt to the decline.

25:27

The stopping volume is confirmed by the high volume at the bottom of the candle, which indicates buying pressure preventing further price drops. Pure price action traders may recognize this as a reversal point, but volume analysis confirms the buying interest behind it. Despite this, sustained upward moves (V-shaped reversals) are uncommon without further confirmation.

25:59

Following the initial reversal, the price entered a sideways consolidation phase near key price levels. This period coincided with the lead-up to the Wall Street open, showing congestion and declining volume. The market remains uncertain, with the price oscillating around significant support and resistance zones.

26:33

Further price action shows weak candles with wicks, indicating both buying and selling pressure but overall indecision. Volume levels must be interpreted in the context of the trading session, as the Asia Pacific session typically has lower participation compared to London and New York, influencing volume interpretation.

27:06

The current market shows a slight attempt to rise followed by weakness and lower volume, maintaining support at the five-level price area. The analysis questions where the price might head if the downward momentum continues, highlighting the importance of monitoring volume and price action for future direction.

27:38

Non-Time-Based Charts and Market Congestion

27:38

The speaker discusses the current market conditions using Renko charts, highlighting sideways price action and congestion phases consistent with Wyckoff’s second law, indicating a lack of clear direction after a recent sharp fall. This pause in the market creates choppy and difficult trading conditions, requiring patience. The speaker prefers to focus on select currency pairs (Cable, Pound Yen, and Pound Aussie) rather than trading a wide range of pairs, emphasizing discipline and sticking to chosen markets while acknowledging that others, like David, may trade more broadly.

29:17

Current Sentiment on Aussie and Commodity Impacts

29:17

The speaker provides an overview of current market conditions, focusing on the Australian dollar (Aussie). They discuss factors influencing the currency, including the Reserve Bank of Australia’s potential interest rate changes and the New Zealand central bank’s stance. Market sentiment appears negative, with increasing short positions noted at the CFTC. The Aussie is also impacted by developments in China and commodity price movements, which affect its strength.

30:24

The speaker apologizes for background noise due to house renovations and adjusts the chat interface. They explain their focus on trading the Pound/Yen currency pair, highlighting its current tradability despite market congestion. They recommend using faster time frames, such as 15 seconds, to better capture trading opportunities in volatile conditions, though not necessarily to trade directly on such a short timeframe.

31:25

Trading Pound Yen on Faster Time Frames

31:25

The segment analyzes market volume and price action starting from early morning London time. It discusses the gradual increase in trading volumes from Europe and Russia as London opens, noting a weak rally due to futures markets not showing a gap up. The commentary emphasizes the importance of levels and flow in the market, highlighting a strong resistance level near 149.1995 seen both overnight and during the day. The discussion covers a price ‘waterfall’ pattern where volume rises as price declines, indicating momentum. The segment also notes that while price spreads are widening, the increase is moderate, reflecting a tempered phase of price action driven by rising volume confirming momentum.

33:23

Volume Analysis in Falling Markets

33:23

The speaker explains the importance of rising volume in both falling and rising markets to sustain price trends. In a falling market, rising volume indicates strong selling pressure needed to drive the trend. The segment illustrates this with an example showing falling prices accompanied by rising volume and discusses the importance of monitoring price levels and market behavior on different time frames.

34:16

The analysis focuses on a market platform where price movement pauses and attempts to break lower. The presence of doji candles indicates market indecision, signaling neither strength nor weakness. Volume plays a key role in interpreting these candles. A candle with a long lower body and high volume suggests weakness, while another candle with more buying activity indicates attempts to rally, though overall momentum remains uncertain.

35:12

Further doji candles confirm continued indecision and lack of upward momentum. A wide-spread down candle with a lower wick and strong volume suggests the market is beginning to break lower, potentially moving to lower price levels. However, the future direction depends on broader market indices and overall sentiment, with this analysis conducted on a 10-minute CSI chart.

35:46

Five-Minute Chart Indecision and Weakness

35:46

The segment analyzes currency movements focusing on the British pound selling and Japanese yen buying across multiple timeframes. On the 10-minute chart, there is a strong move with the pound selling (yellow) and yen buying (magenta). This pattern is confirmed on the 1-minute, 5-minute, 10-minute, and 15-minute charts. While the 15-minute chart shows the trend continuing without reaching overbought or oversold levels, the 5-minute and 1-minute charts indicate these conditions are starting to appear, suggesting a potential reversal move may be developing.

36:44

Multi-Time Frame Currency Strength Signals

36:44

The discussion focuses on the ripple effect of price movements across different trading time frames, from the fastest to the slowest. A one-minute scalper might react quickly to small price flickers, while traders on five or ten-minute charts may interpret these moves as minor pullbacks within a larger trend.

37:12

Minor reversals on shorter time frames can signal potential trend developments if they propagate to longer time frames such as five, ten, and fifteen minutes. The significance of these movements depends on whether the pullbacks translate consistently across these intervals, which then indicates the formation of a sustained trend.

37:42

Examples are given of how reversals start on the fastest time frames, such as a sell-off in yen and buying in pound, which may either remain minor pullbacks or evolve into larger trend changes if confirmed on longer time frames. The behavior on five-minute charts can provide early signals of whether the trend will continue or revert.

38:14

The segment illustrates how small movements like yen selling and pound buying seen on fast charts can act as pause points or minor reversals before a continuation of the main trend. Understanding the context and the specific trading time window is critical to interpreting these price actions correctly.

38:44

The overall trend remains bearish across multiple time frames, from one minute up to daily charts, despite occasional short rallies seen on very fast intervals like 15 seconds. The trend monitor confirms the bearish sentiment consistently, highlighting the importance of aligning trades with the dominant trend.

39:14

Indices Futures Volume and Seasonal Effects

39:14

The speaker analyzes recent market activity using one-minute candle charts, noting a weak rally with decent volume but overall bearish sentiment. They focus on US index futures on Globex, emphasizing that cash markets are still closed. The gap up from the previous day reached the volume point of control, a typical pause area, but the volume levels seem inconsistent when compared to the candle spreads, suggesting the move may lack conviction.

40:08

Volume analysis reveals that selling pressure appears lighter than expected, hinting at potential for a price reaction higher or sideways consolidation before a possible reversal. The Nasdaq futures show similar volume patterns with less dramatic price movements. This indicates that the selling might not be strong enough to sustain further declines, supporting the possibility of stabilization or upward movement.

41:16

The speaker highlights the importance of considering seasonal volume effects, noting that July and August typically experience lower trading volumes due to summer holidays. This seasonal attenuation should be factored into volume and price analysis. Current price action across indices is characterized by sideways congestion rather than strong trending moves, with volume remaining relatively subdued.

42:18

The market is currently weak, with price pressing down amid rising volume but facing significant support and resistance levels. The Nasdaq, often more bullish, shows strong price resistance near key volume point of control and accumulation/distribution indicators. Attempts to rally have been met with diminishing volume on upward moves, suggesting a lack of buying enthusiasm. Overall, the market is congested, struggling to break through resistance without increased volume support.

44:07

Bitcoin Volatility and Crypto Strength Indicator

44:07

The speaker analyzes Bitcoin’s current trading situation, highlighting its fragility and the reduced long-term volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Despite some intraday volatility, overall volume, especially to the upside, has diminished. Multiple volatility triggers have caused price fluctuations, but buying efforts remain weak, and Bitcoin is trading near a critical support level. If this support breaks, the price could decline significantly.

45:29

The discussion shifts to the cryptocurrency strength indicator recently launched, which measures the relative strength of various cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and XRP, all compared against Tether (USDT). These cryptocurrencies tend to move in similar directions, and the indicator helps visualize market trends across different time frames. The speaker explains how the indicator can be used to identify strong trends and potential trading opportunities, similar to traditional currency strength indicators.

47:34

The speaker briefly reviews individual currency indices on a five-minute chart, noting that the British pound is generally trending lower while the Japanese yen is trending higher, though with some fluctuations. This overview provides insight into short-term currency movements during the early trading hours.

48:04

Currency Strength Matrix and Heat Map Updates

48:04

The speaker discusses recent currency movements, noting sideways action in the dollar and congestion in the euro, while highlighting stronger trends in yen-related pairs. They introduce an updated currency table function now available in TradingView’s Pine Script, which helps identify quickly tradable currency pairs. Users with the full TradingView indicator package should have access to this feature, and support is available via email.

49:03

Focus shifts to specific currency pairs, particularly pound yen, New Zealand yen, and cable, which show strong downward trends indicating good trading opportunities. The currency matrix tool is praised for providing a clear view of yen sentiment across multiple pairs, helping traders confirm market direction by ensuring consistent moves among related yen pairs.

50:02

The analysis emphasizes the importance of trading with the overall market flow, noting that all yen pairs on the five-minute chart are moving in alignment, signaling a strong universal yen buying trend. The ten-minute chart shows a similar pattern with steep declines in yen pairs, especially pound yen and New Zealand yen. The currency matrix also includes numerical indicators showing current levels near historical extremes, helping traders gauge overbought or oversold conditions.

51:24

The speaker highlights the currency heat map tool, which is visually clean and highly customizable with selectable timeframes ranging from seconds to months. This flexibility caters to scalpers and longer-term traders alike. They also mention ongoing development of a new TradingView indicator resembling a radar screen, designed to integrate with Interactive Brokers via TradeStation Global, enhancing real-time market analysis.

52:27

TradeStation Radar and Trend Monitoring

52:27

The speaker explains the use of TradeStation software integrated with Interactive Brokers data feed, showcasing a powerful trend monitoring setup with various indicators like trend lines, trend bars, trend dots, and dynamic volatility all on the same chart. They illustrate real-time currency futures data across multiple pairs such as the Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Euro, New Zealand dollar, and Swiss franc. The trend monitor visually indicates strong dollar buying, as seen by the red trend signals across different time frames from 1 to 15 minutes.

53:46

The discussion continues around market sentiment where strong dollar buying typically coincides with equities selling off, and rising yen, Swiss franc, and possibly gold prices. The speaker highlights the importance of visual tools like the trend monitor and trend dots to identify tradable opportunities in the dollar market. They also describe plans to develop similar indicators on TradingView, enabling users to scan multiple time frames easily. This radar scanner concept allows traders to quickly assess indicator statuses with simple clicks.

54:40

The speaker demonstrates navigating between different currency charts such as the Australian dollar and Euro dollar on various time frames, emphasizing the ease of instantly seeing market reversals and confirmations using trend monitors, trend dots, and volume analysis. They note that rising volume and proximity to volume point of control may suggest potential pause points or breakouts, aiding in making informed trading decisions.

55:03

TradingView Advantages and Pound Yen Update

55:03

The speaker highlights the advantage of TradingView being a browser-based platform, allowing use across various devices including mobile and Mac without compatibility issues. This flexibility makes it ideal for running indicators on different systems smoothly.

56:06

The discussion shifts to market analysis, noting the Pound Yen’s downward trend supported by rising selling volume. The speaker mentions ongoing indecision and weakness in indices, anticipating clearer market direction once cash markets open. An interruption in the recording is also acknowledged.

56:40

Where to Find Indicators and Forex Education

56:40

The speaker explains where to find all the trading indicators at quantumtraining.com, including those for MT4, NinjaTrader, TradingView, and TradeStation. They highlight that by purchasing the full package, customers receive all current and future indicators free of charge, a policy upheld from the beginning. The forex education program, called the Complete Forex Trading Program, is available at quantumtradingeducation.com and offers comprehensive training to trade markets confidently. It includes a full set of indicators across various platforms, with consistent educational content but varying prices depending on the platform’s indicator availability and data functionality. The program covers core modules such as trading psychology, fundamentals, relational market analysis, and technical analysis with a focus on volume price analysis (VPA).

58:11

Complete Forex Trading Program Details

58:11

The video explains that trading skills apply broadly across all markets, not just forex. There is an extensive educational library with around 450 lessons and 250 to 300 hours of video content, plus 13 detailed PDF downloads. Additionally, students can join the VPA traders group, hosted daily by Anna and the speaker. The funded forex program is exclusive to students, allowing them to trade with the program’s capital rather than their own.

59:15

The funded forex program starts with an evaluation phase where traders choose from three account levels ($5,000, $10,000, or $15,000) to prove their consistency by reaching profit targets. Successful traders can advance to higher account levels. Besides trading 28 currency pairs, traders can also trade indices and gold. Once past evaluation, the account balance is quadrupled for live trading, with profit-sharing terms offering 35% back during evaluation and up to 50% monthly profit kickbacks at higher portfolio manager levels.

01:00:17

Funded Forex Program and Profit Sharing

01:00:17

The speaker discusses the confidence and experience gained from trading large accounts, emphasizing that the money at risk is not the trader’s own but the firm’s. They highlight the importance of risk and money management rules designed to prevent significant losses. Additional resources and updates are available on Trading Labs, which hosts the latest developments, and on anacooling.com, where books and recent analyses, including a Bitcoin report, can be found.

01:01:16

Additional Resources and Closing Remarks

01:01:16

The session covers various markets and includes analysis by Anna on Facebook and other social media platforms. The presenter hopes the audience has enjoyed the session and mentions a break before returning at three o’clock in the afternoon. The session concludes with thanks to Dee for attending and a farewell.

 

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis