Volume price analysis reveals the true picture ahead of the polls

Volume price analysis reveals the true picture ahead of the polls

00:01

Webinar introduction and trading disclaimer

00:01

The webinar begins with a welcome message and an apology for initial audio issues between the hosts, David and the speaker. The speaker reassures the audience that the audio is now functioning correctly. Before proceeding, attention is drawn to the on-screen disclaimer highlighting the risks involved in trading.

00:30

Election date and market impact overview

00:30

The speaker reflects on the challenges faced leading up to November 3rd and emphasizes that this date is just a milestone rather than an endpoint. They introduce a discussion about the election’s impact on current market conditions and how markets are responding to ongoing events.

01:04

Volume price analysis methodology explained

01:04

The speaker introduces the concept of volume price analysis, a method that examines price action and volume to verify the authenticity of market moves. This approach aids traders in analyzing charts across different time frames, selecting optimal entry and exit points, and, importantly, maintaining their positions during trades. The current market is experiencing increased volatility due to the election, creating numerous trading opportunities, especially in forex and indices, but this heightened volatility requires a careful and adapted trading approach.

02:08

Trading strategies amid high volatility

02:08

The speaker advises caution when trading volatile markets, emphasizing the importance of keeping tight stop losses and taking profits when possible. They acknowledge the difficulty many traders face sitting on the sidelines during such price action but stress that stepping aside is a valid choice if the volatility is too uncomfortable. Ultimately, trading decisions should align with the individual’s personality and risk tolerance, including their comfort with potential losses.

03:14

Handling losing trades and ego in trading

03:14

This segment discusses the challenge of dealing with losing trades, emphasizing that it is difficult because no trader likes to be wrong. The impact of losses affects not only the trading account but also the trader’s ego. The speaker highlights the importance of setting ego aside, as the market reflects both a trader’s strengths and weaknesses.

03:49

VPA reviews and educational resources

03:49

The speaker discusses a base methodology involving Volume Price Analysis (VPA), highlighting over 500 five-star reviews from traders who have improved their trading and investing with this approach. They mention bundled digital books covering VPA and its application in forex markets, emphasizing that while markets never repeat patterns identically, similar trading setups recur frequently. A detailed document from a forex trader is shared to help newer traders understand trading approaches. The speaker stresses the importance of choosing a trading style that provides emotional comfort, whether that involves reversals, continuation trades, or breakouts. VPA helps recognize these setups, and additional quantum trading indicators offer extra confidence when analyzing chart structures.

06:22

Choosing your preferred trading setup

06:22

The speaker discusses reviewing live trading examples rather than historic ones and emphasizes practicing with them. They mention a particular individual who has posted a trading document with about an 80 percent success rate, attributed to very specific chart setups. Volume Price Analysis (VPA) is highlighted as a key tool for determining entry and exit points in trades. The discussion also touches on the uncertainty surrounding the timing of election results but notes that markets are currently pricing in a Biden victory, potentially including a ‘blue wave’ where Democrats win the presidency and Congress.

07:36

Election scenarios and market uncertainty

07:36

The speaker discusses the uncertainty surrounding the election results, highlighting key swing states like Florida that could determine the outcome. They reference the 2000 Bush-Gore election, which was not decided until December and required Supreme Court intervention, suggesting a similar scenario could occur due to the close race and issues like postal and mail-in voting. The speaker notes that while markets generally dislike uncertainty, they are currently trading as if the election outcome will eventually be resolved, despite the ongoing ambiguity.

09:19

Forex market influence on equities

09:19

The speaker discusses the importance of monitoring the forex market, even for those focused on stocks or indices, as forex trends often lead market movements. They highlight the recent surge in Dow futures and the current strength of the US dollar, emphasizing common expectations that a ‘blue wave’ scenario could drive both the dollar and equities higher. Additionally, the speaker mentions multiple potential market scenarios and adds a fifth possibility: a repeat of the year 2000, where equities might decline while the dollar strengthens as a safe haven during uncertain market conditions.

11:04

US dollar and VIX market indicators

11:04

The speaker advises monitoring the US dollar and the VIX index, noting that the VIX is somewhat elevated likely due to hedging activities. They mention that a significant reversal in the VIX would cause a dramatic spike. The discussion then shifts to the YM (Dow Jones futures) on the MT5 trading platform, where a Renko chart with a three-minute timeframe shows a recent strong breakout.

11:40

YM chart trends and pullback analysis

11:40

The speaker discusses being in a clear upward trend and the common question of how to enter such a trend without chasing prices. They explain the importance of looking for pullbacks or corrections within the primary upward trend, as markets rarely move straight up without interruptions. Volume Price Analysis (VPA) is introduced as a tool to distinguish between simple pullbacks and potential reversals. The segment concludes with a shift in focus to forex markets, specifically mentioning the Aussie Yen pair as an example.

12:55

Aussie yen trend and risk sentiment

12:55

The speaker discusses the behavior of risk currencies, particularly the Australian dollar (Aussie) and its movements against the yen, highlighting a pause after initial gains. They explain the concept of rotation in forex, where buying strength in one yen pair may shift to another. The Aussie yen pair is used as an example to illustrate a primary upward trend characterized by volatility candles that exceed the average true range, marked by purple arrows on the chart. Despite a pullback signaling a potential reversal, volume analysis under the candles suggests the movement is not strongly convincing, with notable tails on some candles indicating indecision or support levels.

14:33

Volatility candles and market reactions

14:33

The speaker discusses price action at a significant Camarilla level, specifically the R4 resistance, noting that price often pauses at such levels similar to Fibonacci retracements. Despite an initial expectation of reversal, price pushed higher supported by increased volume and a volatility candle, indicating market strength rather than a reversal.

15:42

The volatility candle, observed during a high liquidity London session, suggested a potential reversal due to volume patterns, but price did not fully break the candle’s low. Instead, it found support at another important Camarilla level and resumed its primary uptrend, entering a congestion phase while indices continued to advance. The speaker then transitions to a 10-minute chart analysis.

16:50

Renko charts and trend monitoring

16:50

The speaker discusses recent market volatility reflected by three volatility candles during the Wall Street open, attributing market movement to expectations of a Biden and Democratic Party win. They highlight the usefulness of the Renko chart, which simplifies price action by providing clear geometric patterns and helps traders stay engaged with trends. Despite some minor pullbacks and red dots, the trend monitor remains positive, indicating a steady upward trend.

17:59

The speaker advises waiting for a break of the primary trend high to capitalize on upward momentum, emphasizing the importance of using Renko charts alongside traditional time charts to analyze price levels, action, and volume. They note that while Renko charts lack volume data, switching to a three-minute time chart reveals volume patterns supporting the trend. An example is given of a breakaway trade near the Wall Street open, characterized by consolidation, a trap move with high volume, and a strong, volume-backed break of resistance.

19:07

Breakaway trades and congestion phases

19:07

The speaker explains the concept of price action using Renko charts, focusing on understanding setups within specific time frames. They describe a congestion phase before the Wall Street open, emphasizing that a trend requires breaking away from this congestion. The speaker notes that many traders prefer clear reversals but warns that the market often remains in congestion longer than in trends. They then hand over to David, who has been monitoring the indices more closely, and encourage viewers to ask questions in the chat for discussion.

20:16

Upcoming economic events and COT data

20:16

This segment discusses key upcoming financial events, including the postponement of the FOMC meeting from Wednesday to Thursday due to the election and the non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday. It highlights the availability of comprehensive CFTC data on the UK version of investing.com, which includes various market charts and volatility indexes such as MOVE for bonds and VIX for equities. The speaker examines speculative positions in the S&P 500, noting that major traders (non-commercials) are not short but have actually increased their long positions significantly, suggesting they may face risks if market shocks or election result delays occur. The segment ends with a handover to another speaker, David.

By Anna Coulling – creator of volume price analysis