FOMC Preview: A Hawkish Hold on the Cards, with December in Focus

FOMC Preview: A Hawkish Hold on the Cards, with December in Focus

by David Coulling Comment Closed
FOMC Preview: A Hawkish Hold on the Cards, with December in Focus The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its two-day meeting tomorrow (28 October 2026), with the statement due at 14:00 ET and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 14:30 ET. There is no Summary of Economic Projections or new dot plot (the next one arrives in December). Markets and most analysts expect a hold in the 3.75–4.00% target range after September’s unanimous 25 bp hike—the first in three years—under Warsh. What the FedWatch Tool Is Saying CME FedWatch (fed funds futures) prices roughly a 90–92% probability of a hold and only ~8–10% chance of a 25 bp hike. December is the clearer event: markets assign ~75–80%+ odds of at least one further hike by year-end (most likely another 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%). Further out, pricing implies additional tightening into 2027 before any easing discussion. Research houses align closely: around 50 of 51 expect a hold this week, with near-universal consensus on...
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How Bond Yields Influence the Markets – And Why Next Week’s FOMC Meeting Matters

by David Coulling Comment Closed
How Bond Yields Influence the Markets – And Why Next Week’s FOMC Meeting Matters Bond yields are one of the most important drivers of financial markets, yet they are often misunderstood by newer traders and investors. Understanding how yields work — and how they react to Federal Reserve decisions — is essential for making sense of price movements in stocks, bonds, currencies, and even gold.With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for 28–29 July 2026, now is the perfect time to revisit this crucial relationship. What Exactly Are Bond Yields? A bond yield is the return an investor receives from holding a bond. The most closely watched yield in the world is the US 10-year Treasury yield. As of 24 July 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading around 4.67%–4.70%. Importantly, bond prices and yields move in opposite directions: When bond prices rise → yields fall When bond prices fall → yields rise How Rising Yields Affect Markets When yields rise significantly, several things tend to...
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