The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts
After a climactic session like today’s, it is easy to panic and throw in the towel. For readers of my X feed (and Anna’s), and for anyone who follows volume, the writing has been on the wall for some time. We have flagged this repeatedly in posts and live sessions: the tech rally that began earlier this year was built on hot air – a classic trap move designed by the insiders.
Evidence on the Monthly Charts
The clearest evidence sits on the monthly charts of both the NQ and XLK. Start with the benchmark candles of September and October 2025. Those two months showed solid spreads accompanied by relatively healthy volume. Price and volume broadly agreed. A modest increase in volume in October alongside a slightly narrower spread even suggested a degree of caution, as one would expect. Now compare those with the April and May...
SPCX Daily Chart Update: Growing Bearish Pressure, Broken Support, and the Classic IPO Overhang
The daily chart for SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) has turned increasingly constructive for the bears. Price has been rejected at the manually drawn yellow resistance line, now reinforced by the 10-period red resistance level near $157. More importantly, the support channel around $147 has given way. The blue dashed line of the Accumulation/Distribution indicator has been firmly breached, confirming that the balance of buying versus selling pressure has shifted. With little meaningful support immediately below, the next logical area of interest sits back near the August base around $110–115.
Recent Rally Attempts and Volume Signals of Weakness
Two recent attempts to rally have failed in classic distribution style:
On Monday, the stock pushed higher but collapsed back to close near the open — a clear rejection.
Today produced an even greater effort on increased volume, yet price again failed to hold and closed weakly.
In volume-price analysis terms, these...
The 2026 Midterms and Markets: Permutations, Historical Patterns, and What Different Outcomes Could Mean
As Americans head to the polls on November 3, 2026, the midterm elections are delivering a classic referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term. Republicans entered the day with narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress—roughly 218–214 in the House (accounting for one independent caucusing with Republicans and vacancies) and 53–47 in the Senate (including independents who caucus with Democrats). Democrats need a net gain of about three to four seats in the House and four in the Senate to seize control of each.
Prediction markets and forecasters such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball have heavily favoured Democratic gains, particularly in the House (often priced above 90 per cent probability), with Senate control more competitive but leaning Democratic in many models (roughly 70–76 per cent in markets like Polymarket and Kalshi as of election morning). A Democratic sweep has been the base-case scenario priced by many markets, followed by...
XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand
XLK is the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. It tracks the technology sector of the S&P 500 and is heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap names. The top three holdings — typically NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft — usually account for around 40% of the fund, while the top 10 make up roughly 65%. When you analyse XLK, you are largely analysing the price behaviour of the biggest technology stocks. You can read any chart with volume and price. On the monthly timeframe for XLK, the anomalies are glaring and simply confirm what many of us suspected and commented on at the time: the tech rally was built on sand. The hard evidence is sitting right there in the ETF itself.
The Candles That Tell the Story
Look first at the two candles of September and October last year (red arrows). These show the kind of action we expect in...
Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective
Intel’s collapse on Friday was one of the defining moves of a difficult session for technology stocks. After reporting third-quarter results that beat expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings, the company issued fourth-quarter guidance that fell well short of consensus. Management pointed to a continued PC market slowdown, elevated memory costs, supply constraints, and the lingering effects of a factory incident in Israel. The reaction was immediate and severe. Intel closed at $65.76, down roughly 28.6% from Thursday’s close of $92.07, on volume of approximately 448 million shares. The move contributed to a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex, with Nvidia and other high-profile names also under pressure as investors reassessed AI-related spending, cash-flow timelines, and near-term demand.
The VPA Precursor: Narrowing Spreads on Falling Volume
From a pure Volume Price Analysis standpoint, the setup for this reversal had already begun to...
FOMC Preview: A Hawkish Hold on the Cards, with December in Focus
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its two-day meeting tomorrow (28 October 2026), with the statement due at 14:00 ET and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 14:30 ET. There is no Summary of Economic Projections or new dot plot (the next one arrives in December). Markets and most analysts expect a hold in the 3.75–4.00% target range after September’s unanimous 25 bp hike—the first in three years—under Warsh.
What the FedWatch Tool Is Saying
CME FedWatch (fed funds futures) prices roughly a 90–92% probability of a hold and only ~8–10% chance of a 25 bp hike. December is the clearer event: markets assign ~75–80%+ odds of at least one further hike by year-end (most likely another 25 bp to 4.00–4.25%). Further out, pricing implies additional tightening into 2027 before any easing discussion. Research houses align closely: around 50 of 51 expect a hold this week, with near-universal consensus on...
Week Ahead: Fed Takes Centre Stage Wednesday, BoJ Closes It Out Friday
It’s a big central-bank week. The clear highlight is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with the Bank of Japan following on Friday. Markets are pricing a hold from both, but the tone and guidance will matter more than the decision itself — especially with oil still elevated and inflation sticky across major economies.
Wednesday – Federal Reserve
The FOMC is widely expected to leave the fed funds rate unchanged in the 3.75–4.00% range after September’s 25 bp hike. Futures and economist surveys show only low-teens odds of another move this week, with a December hike now the base case. Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have recently pushed back against consecutive hikes, stressing patience and data dependence. Expect a “hawkish hold”: rates steady, but the statement and press conference (2:30 pm ET) likely keep December firmly on the table and flag upside inflation risks. Possible market reaction
A measured hold with no...
SPCX: Classic IPO Behaviour in Full View – Why This Is Still a Traders’ Stock
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) continues to behave exactly as many newly public companies do in their first six to twelve months. The initial rush higher, the subsequent sharp reversals, the staggered lock-up releases, and the news-driven gaps that pull in late buyers only to reverse are all textbook. Right now, the stock offers excellent two-way volatility for active traders, but it is still a long way from being a straightforward long-term investment.
The IPO Path So Far For SPCX
SPCX came public in mid-June 2026 at $135. The first few sessions saw the classic euphoria surge that takes many IPOs well above the offer price. The stock quickly ran toward the mid-$200s (intraday high near $225.64 in mid-June) before the inevitable cooling-off and profit-taking began. From that peak, it has spent the following months oscillating, at one point trading down toward the low $100s in early August before...
Rocket Lab and the Wyckoff cycle: accumulation, distribution, VPA, and the three laws
Richard Wyckoff’s method is not a pattern-recognition game. It is a way of reading who is in control of the tape. Large operators cannot buy or sell size in a straight line without moving price against themselves, so they build positions in ranges and campaign them in trends. Those campaigns leave footprints in price spread, close location, and volume. That is Volume Price Analysis. Wyckoff simply organised those footprints into a cycle and three laws. On the weekly chart, Rocket Lab in 2026 has printed a complete campaign: a first accumulation in the first quarter, a violent markup into a selling climax distribution top near $151 in late May, a markdown back into the same price zone, and a second accumulation through August and September.
That weekly structure is the map. The line of the year makes the same point even more clearly: base, blow-off, give-back, base again.
A note...
You’ve Read the Book - Now Learn Volume Price Analysis from the Person Who Wrote It
Price tells you what happened
Volume tells you whether it mattered
That is Volume Price Analysis. Anna Coulling created the modern method. She wrote the book thousands of traders still keep on their desk. Quantum Trading Education is where that method is taught in full — not in a chapter, in a complete programme. Keep reading if you are done collecting indicators and ready to learn how to read a chart.
What happens after the book?
A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis shows you the principles. Then you open a live chart, and the market does not look like the examples:
The candle is wide. Is that effort or a trap?
Volume is high. Is that buying or selling?
The pair rallies on thin volume. Do you stay in or get out?
You know the words: accumulation, distribution, effort versus result. You still hesitate on the next...
