XLK Archives - Quantum Trading Education

The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts

November 5, 2026 by David Coulling Comment Closed

The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts After a climactic session like today’s, it is easy to panic and throw in the towel. For readers of my X feed (and Anna’s), and for anyone who follows volume, the writing has been on the wall for some time. We have flagged this repeatedly in posts and live sessions: the tech rally that began earlier this year was built on hot air – a classic trap move designed by the insiders. Evidence on the Monthly Charts The clearest evidence sits on the monthly charts of both the NQ and XLK. Start with the benchmark candles of September and October 2025. Those two months showed solid spreads accompanied by relatively healthy volume. Price and volume broadly agreed. A modest increase in volume in October alongside a slightly narrower spread even suggested a degree of caution, as one would expect. Now compare those with the April and May...

XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand

November 2, 2026 by David Coulling Comment Closed

XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand XLK is the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. It tracks the technology sector of the S&P 500 and is heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap names. The top three holdings — typically NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft — usually account for around 40% of the fund, while the top 10 make up roughly 65%. When you analyse XLK, you are largely analysing the price behaviour of the biggest technology stocks. You can read any chart with volume and price. On the monthly timeframe for XLK, the anomalies are glaring and simply confirm what many of us suspected and commented on at the time: the tech rally was built on sand. The hard evidence is sitting right there in the ETF itself. The Candles That Tell the Story Look first at the two candles of September and October last year (red arrows). These show the kind of action we expect in...

Market Update: Sector Rotation in Focus as Semiconductors Cool Off – May 18, 2026

May 18, 2026 by David Coulling Comment Closed

Market Update: Sector Rotation in Focus as Semiconductors Cool Off – May 18, 2026 As of May 18, 2026, the U.S. equity market shows clear signs of fatigue in its narrow leadership. The S&P 500 closed recently around 7,408 after hitting highs near 7,500, with the Nasdaq underperforming on Friday amid a pullback in tech-heavy names. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has surged dramatically—up over 60% in a short period since late March—but is now unwinding, with names like NVDA, MU, AMD, and INTC seeing notable selling pressure. This mirrors warnings of overstretched conditions, with RSI levels hitting extremes not seen since the dot-com era. This unwind aligns with what many observers (including prior discussions) anticipated: the AI/semiconductor rally, while fundamentally driven by data centre buildout and hyperscaler spending, had become excessively concentrated and speculative. Hedge funds pushed exposure to semis and equipment to record highs (~19% of global portfolios), but mean-reversion dynamics are kicking in. The question now is where capital—particularly...