The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts

The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts

by David Coulling Comment Closed
The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts After a climactic session like today’s, it is easy to panic and throw in the towel. For readers of my X feed (and Anna’s), and for anyone who follows volume, the writing has been on the wall for some time. We have flagged this repeatedly in posts and live sessions: the tech rally that began earlier this year was built on hot air – a classic trap move designed by the insiders. Evidence on the Monthly Charts The clearest evidence sits on the monthly charts of both the NQ and XLK. Start with the benchmark candles of September and October 2025. Those two months showed solid spreads accompanied by relatively healthy volume. Price and volume broadly agreed. A modest increase in volume in October alongside a slightly narrower spread even suggested a degree of caution, as one would expect. Now compare those with the April and May...
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SPCX Daily Chart Update: Growing Bearish Pressure, Broken Support, and the Classic IPO Overhang

SPCX Daily Chart Update: Growing Bearish Pressure, Broken Support, and the Classic IPO Overhang

by David Coulling Comment Closed
SPCX Daily Chart Update: Growing Bearish Pressure, Broken Support, and the Classic IPO Overhang The daily chart for SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) has turned increasingly constructive for the bears. Price has been rejected at the manually drawn yellow resistance line, now reinforced by the 10-period red resistance level near $157. More importantly, the support channel around $147 has given way. The blue dashed line of the Accumulation/Distribution indicator has been firmly breached, confirming that the balance of buying versus selling pressure has shifted. With little meaningful support immediately below, the next logical area of interest sits back near the August base around $110–115. Recent Rally Attempts and Volume Signals of Weakness Two recent attempts to rally have failed in classic distribution style: On Monday, the stock pushed higher but collapsed back to close near the open — a clear rejection. Today produced an even greater effort on increased volume, yet price again failed to hold and closed weakly. In volume-price analysis terms, these...
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XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand

XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand

by David Coulling Comment Closed
XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand XLK is the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. It tracks the technology sector of the S&P 500 and is heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap names. The top three holdings — typically NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft — usually account for around 40% of the fund, while the top 10 make up roughly 65%. When you analyse XLK, you are largely analysing the price behaviour of the biggest technology stocks. You can read any chart with volume and price. On the monthly timeframe for XLK, the anomalies are glaring and simply confirm what many of us suspected and commented on at the time: the tech rally was built on sand. The hard evidence is sitting right there in the ETF itself. The Candles That Tell the Story Look first at the two candles of September and October last year (red arrows). These show the kind of action we expect in...
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Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective

Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective

by David Coulling Comment Closed
Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective Intel’s collapse on Friday was one of the defining moves of a difficult session for technology stocks. After reporting third-quarter results that beat expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings, the company issued fourth-quarter guidance that fell well short of consensus. Management pointed to a continued PC market slowdown, elevated memory costs, supply constraints, and the lingering effects of a factory incident in Israel. The reaction was immediate and severe. Intel closed at $65.76, down roughly 28.6% from Thursday’s close of $92.07, on volume of approximately 448 million shares. The move contributed to a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex, with Nvidia and other high-profile names also under pressure as investors reassessed AI-related spending, cash-flow timelines, and near-term demand. The VPA Precursor: Narrowing Spreads on Falling Volume From a pure Volume Price Analysis standpoint, the setup for this reversal had already begun to...
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Rocket Lab and the Wyckoff cycle: accumulation, distribution, VPA, and the three laws

Rocket Lab and the Wyckoff cycle: accumulation, distribution, VPA, and the three laws

by David Coulling Comment Closed
Rocket Lab and the Wyckoff cycle: accumulation, distribution, VPA, and the three laws Richard Wyckoff’s method is not a pattern-recognition game. It is a way of reading who is in control of the tape. Large operators cannot buy or sell size in a straight line without moving price against themselves, so they build positions in ranges and campaign them in trends. Those campaigns leave footprints in price spread, close location, and volume. That is Volume Price Analysis. Wyckoff simply organised those footprints into a cycle and three laws. On the weekly chart, Rocket Lab in 2026 has printed a complete campaign: a first accumulation in the first quarter, a violent markup into a selling climax distribution top near $151 in late May, a markdown back into the same price zone, and a second accumulation through August and September. That weekly structure is the map. The line of the year makes the same point even more clearly: base, blow-off, give-back, base again. A note...
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Risk Management + Volume Price Analysis: The Combination That Builds Consistent Traders

Risk Management + Volume Price Analysis: The Combination That Builds Consistent Traders

by David Coulling Comment Closed
Risk Management + Volume Price Analysis: The Combination That Builds Consistent Traders Introduction Most new traders chase indicators, signals, and “secret strategies.” At Quantum Trading Education (QTE), we teach something far more powerful: the combination of solid risk management and Volume Price Analysis (VPA). This powerful duo doesn’t just help you survive — it helps you understand what the market is really doing and trade with confidence. 1. Why Risk Management Alone Is Not Enough The 1% rule, proper position sizing, and logical stop-losses are essential. But without understanding market behaviour, you’re still trading blind. This is where Volume Price Analysis (VPA) becomes your edge.VPA teaches you to read the story behind every candle by combining price action with volume. High volume confirms conviction. Low volume often signals weakness or traps. 2. Core Principles of Volume Price Analysis (VPA) Here are the key VPA concepts we emphasise in our QTE training: High Volume + Strong Price Move = Institutional conviction (likely continuation) High Volume + Small...
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PLTR Stock Analysis: Breaking Out of Congestion – Volume Price Analysis Signals Potential New Rally (June 2026)

PLTR Stock Analysis: Breaking Out of Congestion – Volume Price Analysis Signals Potential New Rally (June 2026)

by David Coulling Comment Closed
PLTR Stock Analysis: Breaking Out of Congestion – Volume Price Analysis Signals Potential New Rally (June 2026) Full transparency - this is a stock I hold at present As we kick off June 2026, one stock that has captured the attention of traders and investors alike is Palantir Technologies (PLTR) with the PLTR breakout in 2026. After months of frustrating range-bound action, the stock delivered dramatic price action in the final three trading days of May — surging from around $133 to over $156 (with intraday pushes toward $161). This move came on strong volume and has left the weekly chart looking particularly interesting from a Volume Price Analysis (VPA) perspective. Could this be the start of a sustained breakout above the recent congestion zone? If the gap-up open on June 1 holds and momentum continues, PLTR may be poised to challenge its all-time high near $207. Let’s break it all down. Background on Palantir Technologies Palantir Technologies, founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel,...
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Why This Massive Green NQ Candle Was a Textbook Trap – Low Volume Screams No Demand (VPA & Wyckoff Lesson)

Why This Massive Green NQ Candle Was a Textbook Trap – Low Volume Screams No Demand (VPA & Wyckoff Lesson)

by David Coulling Comment Closed
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