The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts

The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts

by David Coulling Comment Closed
The Trap Was Always There – Volume Price Analysis on the NQ and XLK Monthly Charts After a climactic session like today’s, it is easy to panic and throw in the towel. For readers of my X feed (and Anna’s), and for anyone who follows volume, the writing has been on the wall for some time. We have flagged this repeatedly in posts and live sessions: the tech rally that began earlier this year was built on hot air – a classic trap move designed by the insiders. Evidence on the Monthly Charts The clearest evidence sits on the monthly charts of both the NQ and XLK. Start with the benchmark candles of September and October 2025. Those two months showed solid spreads accompanied by relatively healthy volume. Price and volume broadly agreed. A modest increase in volume in October alongside a slightly narrower spread even suggested a degree of caution, as one would expect. Now compare those with the April and May...
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XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand

XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand

by David Coulling Comment Closed
XLK Monthly: VPA Anomalies Show the Tech Rally Was Built on Sand XLK is the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. It tracks the technology sector of the S&P 500 and is heavily concentrated in a few mega-cap names. The top three holdings — typically NVIDIA, Apple and Microsoft — usually account for around 40% of the fund, while the top 10 make up roughly 65%. When you analyse XLK, you are largely analysing the price behaviour of the biggest technology stocks. You can read any chart with volume and price. On the monthly timeframe for XLK, the anomalies are glaring and simply confirm what many of us suspected and commented on at the time: the tech rally was built on sand. The hard evidence is sitting right there in the ETF itself. The Candles That Tell the Story Look first at the two candles of September and October last year (red arrows). These show the kind of action we expect in...
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Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective

Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective

by David Coulling Comment Closed
Intel’s Climactic Reversal: Extreme Volume, a Closed Weekly Volatility Trigger, and the Road Ahead from a Volume Price Analysis Perspective Intel’s collapse on Friday was one of the defining moves of a difficult session for technology stocks. After reporting third-quarter results that beat expectations on both revenue and adjusted earnings, the company issued fourth-quarter guidance that fell well short of consensus. Management pointed to a continued PC market slowdown, elevated memory costs, supply constraints, and the lingering effects of a factory incident in Israel. The reaction was immediate and severe. Intel closed at $65.76, down roughly 28.6% from Thursday’s close of $92.07, on volume of approximately 448 million shares. The move contributed to a broader sell-off across the semiconductor complex, with Nvidia and other high-profile names also under pressure as investors reassessed AI-related spending, cash-flow timelines, and near-term demand. The VPA Precursor: Narrowing Spreads on Falling Volume From a pure Volume Price Analysis standpoint, the setup for this reversal had already begun to...
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