The Next El Niño: Forecast for 2026–2027 and Its Potential Impact on Commodities
The Next El Niño: Forecast for 2026–2027 and Its Potential Impact on Commodities
As of mid-May 2026, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state but shifting rapidly toward warmer conditions. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño Watch, with an 82% chance of El Niño emerging in the May–July 2026 period and a 96% probability it will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–2027 (December 2026–February 2027).
International models from the IRI, WMO, and ECMWF largely align with this outlook. Many forecasts suggest this could develop into a strong—or even “Super”—El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies potentially reaching or exceeding +2°C. While peak strength remains uncertain due to the spring predictability barrier, the trajectory points to significant global weather disruptions.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It weakens trade winds, alters atmospheric circulation (the Walker Circulation),...