Week Ahead: Fed Takes Centre Stage Wednesday, BoJ Closes It Out Friday
Week Ahead: Fed Takes Centre Stage Wednesday, BoJ Closes It Out Friday
It’s a big central-bank week. The clear highlight is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, with the Bank of Japan following on Friday. Markets are pricing a hold from both, but the tone and guidance will matter more than the decision itself — especially with oil still elevated and inflation sticky across major economies.
Wednesday – Federal Reserve
The FOMC is widely expected to leave the fed funds rate unchanged in the 3.75–4.00% range after September’s 25 bp hike. Futures and economist surveys show only low-teens odds of another move this week, with a December hike now the base case. Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have recently pushed back against consecutive hikes, stressing patience and data dependence. Expect a “hawkish hold”: rates steady, but the statement and press conference (2:30 pm ET) likely keep December firmly on the table and flag upside inflation risks. Possible market reaction
A measured hold with no...